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Big 10 Team Race

# SchoolTeam Rec.
1 University of Michigan University of Michigan Blue 10–2
2 University of Notre Dame University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish 9–3
3 University of Saint Thomas University of Saint Thomas Tommies 4–8
4 University of Michigan University of Michigan Maize 1–11

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 26,645 team race matches sailed before 2025-03-29, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 21 of 24 matches (88%) with a log-loss of 0.403 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.38 ± 0.40: a typical event, more orderly than 83% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

PlaceSchool Pred. Strength Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) Pred. win % Recordvs forecast
1University of Michigan
Blue		15.11
home +0.36		Billy Vogel / Alexander Reynolds 1.66
Jack Hammett / Abigail Paul 1.47
Jack Homa / Sabrina Maas 1.47		72%10–2 (83%)+1.3
2University of Notre Dame
Fighting Irish		24.89
school −0.19		Timothy Hesse / Kate Norman 1.98
Trevor Bolger / John Sullivan
John Szymanski / Jack O'Connor 1.64		66%9–3 (75%)+1.0
3University of Saint Thomas
Tommies		34.33
school −0.10		Greg Bittle / Lily Lupardus 1.82
Rakesh Dhiman / Naomi Peters 0.85
Theodore Graham / Leila Montoya		51%4–8 (33%)−2.1
4University of Michigan
Maize		42.58
home +0.36		Jillian Giordano / Ben Visco
John Mccalmont / Ryan Mcallister 0.70
Katherine Simcoe / Gabe Lynch 0.91		10%1–11 (8%)−0.2

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

PlaceSchoolStrength Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
1University of Michigan Blue5.115.8310–28.7+0.720.729%
2University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish4.895.389–38.0+0.490.437%
4University of Michigan Maize2.582.331–111.3−0.250.074%
3University of Saint Thomas Tommies4.333.344–86.1−0.991.596%

By skipper

SkipperSchoolValue Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
Trevor BolgerUniversity of Notre Dame1.321.819–38.0+0.490.437%
John SzymanskiUniversity of Notre Dame1.642.129–38.0+0.490.437%
John MccalmontUniversity of Michigan0.700.451–111.3−0.250.074%
Katherine SimcoeUniversity of Michigan0.910.661–111.3−0.250.074%
Theodore GrahamUniversity of Saint Thomas1.480.494–86.1−0.991.596%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd#WinnerLoser P(winner)
11University of Notre Dame Fighting IrishUniversity of Michigan Maize92%
12University of Michigan BlueUniversity of Saint Thomas Tommies70%
13University of Saint Thomas TommiesUniversity of Michigan Maize85%
14University of Notre Dame Fighting IrishUniversity of Michigan Blue46%upset
15University of Notre Dame Fighting IrishUniversity of Saint Thomas Tommies65%
16University of Michigan BlueUniversity of Michigan Maize93%
27University of Michigan BlueUniversity of Michigan Maize93%
28University of Notre Dame Fighting IrishUniversity of Saint Thomas Tommies64%
29University of Michigan BlueUniversity of Notre Dame Fighting Irish55%
210University of Saint Thomas TommiesUniversity of Michigan Maize85%
211University of Notre Dame Fighting IrishUniversity of Michigan Maize91%
212University of Michigan BlueUniversity of Saint Thomas Tommies68%
313University of Michigan BlueUniversity of Saint Thomas Tommies68%
314University of Notre Dame Fighting IrishUniversity of Michigan Maize91%
315University of Saint Thomas TommiesUniversity of Michigan Maize85%
316University of Michigan BlueUniversity of Notre Dame Fighting Irish56%
317University of Michigan BlueUniversity of Michigan Maize92%
318University of Notre Dame Fighting IrishUniversity of Saint Thomas Tommies63%
419University of Notre Dame Fighting IrishUniversity of Saint Thomas Tommies63%
420University of Michigan BlueUniversity of Michigan Maize92%
421University of Michigan BlueUniversity of Notre Dame Fighting Irish56%
422University of Michigan MaizeUniversity of Saint Thomas Tommies15%upset
423University of Saint Thomas TommiesUniversity of Michigan Blue32%upset
424University of Notre Dame Fighting IrishUniversity of Michigan Maize90%

Round 1

TeamRec.BlueIrishTommiesMaize
University of Michigan Blue2–4✕LL✕
University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish3–0W✕WW
University of Saint Thomas Tommies1–2WL✕W
University of Michigan Maize2–4✕LL✕

Round 2

TeamRec.BlueIrishTommiesMaize
University of Michigan Blue3–3✕LW✕
University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish2–1W✕WW
University of Saint Thomas Tommies1–2LL✕L
University of Michigan Maize3–3✕LW✕

Round 3

TeamRec.BlueIrishTommiesMaize
University of Michigan Blue3–3✕WL✕
University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish2–1L✕WL
University of Saint Thomas Tommies1–2WL✕W
University of Michigan Maize3–3✕WL✕

Round 4

TeamRec.BlueIrishTommiesMaize
University of Michigan Blue3–3✕LL✕
University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish2–1W✕WW
University of Saint Thomas Tommies1–2WL✕W
University of Michigan Maize3–3✕LL✕
# Winner Loser Pos.
1 University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish 1-2-4 def. University of Michigan Maize 3-5-6
2 University of Michigan Blue 1-2-4 def. University of Saint Thomas Tommies 3-5-6
3 University of Saint Thomas Tommies 1-2-4 def. University of Michigan Maize 3-5-6
4 University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish 1-2-6 def. University of Michigan Blue 3-4-5
5 University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish 1-2-6 def. University of Saint Thomas Tommies 3-4-5
6 University of Michigan Blue 1-2-3 def. University of Michigan Maize 4-5-6
7 University of Michigan Blue 1-2-3 def. University of Michigan Maize 4-5-6
8 University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish 1-2-5 def. University of Saint Thomas Tommies 3-4-6
9 University of Michigan Blue 2-3-5 def. University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish 1-4-6
10 University of Saint Thomas Tommies 1-3-4 def. University of Michigan Maize 2-5-6 DSQ
11 University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish 1-2-5 def. University of Michigan Maize 3-4-6
12 University of Michigan Blue 1-2-5 def. University of Saint Thomas Tommies 3-4-6
13 University of Michigan Blue 1-2-3 def. University of Saint Thomas Tommies 4-5-6
14 University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish 1-2-4 def. University of Michigan Maize 3-5-6
15 University of Saint Thomas Tommies 2-3-4 def. University of Michigan Maize 1-5-6
16 University of Michigan Blue 2-3-4 def. University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish 1-5-6
17 University of Michigan Blue 1-2-3 def. University of Michigan Maize 4-5-6
18 University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish 1-2-6 def. University of Saint Thomas Tommies 3-4-5
19 University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish 1-2-5 def. University of Saint Thomas Tommies 3-4-6 DSQ
20 University of Michigan Blue 1-3-5 def. University of Michigan Maize 2-4-6
21 University of Michigan Blue 1-3-6 def. University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish 2-4-5
22 University of Michigan Maize 1-2-3 def. University of Saint Thomas Tommies 4-5-6
23 University of Saint Thomas Tommies 1-3-6 def. University of Michigan Blue 2-4-5
24 University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish 1-2-4 def. University of Michigan Maize 3-5-6

Conditions — 03/29/2025 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle
Humidity 74%  ·  Pressure 1012.7 hPa

Temperature

63°F
↑ 66°F   ↓ 59°F
Feels like 60°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
9.7 kn
avg  ·  max 12.5 kn
Gusts to 24.1 kn
From SW (231°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover92% Sunshine4.7 hrs Humidity74% Pressure1012.7 hPa Rain0.19 in

What this breeze does at Michigan — from fleet racing

Breeze: SW about 12 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Michigan in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.08)
Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.08 means a rating gap counts about 7% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Michigan by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 12 labelled days at Michigan, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →