University of Michigan '27
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.47 (fleet 2.02) | 281 of 328 | +0.01 ± 0.17 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 45–26 (63%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 | 3 | 23–6 | — |
| Spring 2025 | 4 | 22–20 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 7 graded regattas (71 matches) the record is 45–26 against 42.9 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+2.1). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 3 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 3 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-10 | MCSA Open Team Race Qualifier | skipper | 1.92 | 2.93 | 8–2 | 6.7 | +1.02 | 0.9 | 24% |
| 2026-03-21 | Big 10 Team Race | skipper | 1.98 | 1.31 | 8–2 | 8.8 | −0.67 | 0.4 | 90% |
| 2026-03-14 | WAC Team Race @ Fordham | skipper | 2.00 | 1.44 | 7–2 | 7.7 | −0.56 | 0.3 | 87% |
| 2025-04-24 | ICSA Open Team Race National Championship | skipper | 1.85 | -1.15 | 0–15 | 0.0 | ≤−3.00 | 0.1 | >99% |
| 2025-04-04 | MCSA Open Team Race Championship | skipper | 1.69 | 2.63 | 9–1 | 7.9 | +0.94 | 0.7 | 33% |
| 2025-03-29 | Big 10 Team Race | skipper | 1.47 | 2.19 | 10–2 | 8.7 | +0.72 | 0.7 | 29% |
| 2025-03-15 | Washington College Team Race | skipper | 1.35 | 1.28 | 3–2 | 3.1 | −0.07 | 0.0 | 75% |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Jack Homa |  St. John Paul II School |
'23 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
