Big 10 Team Race

HostMichigan
Date03/21/2026
TypeFundamental
BoatFJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	University of Michigan	Blue	8–1
2	University of Michigan	Maize	7–2
3	University of Michigan	Wolverines	5–4
4	University of Wisconsin	Badgers 1	4–5
5	University of Wisconsin	Badgers 2	2–7
6	University of Notre Dame	Fighting Irish	1–8

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 29,369 team race matches sailed before 2026-03-21, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 15 of 30 matches (50%) with a log-loss of 0.984 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went poorly for the forecast. Orderliness −1.68 ± 0.33: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 0% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	University of Michigan Blue	1	6.53 home +0.35	Lorenzo Puertas / Grace Redner 2.53 Jack Hammett / Ben Visco 1.61 Jack Homa / Alexander Reynolds 1.98	88%	8–2 (80%)	−0.8
2	University of Michigan Maize	4	3.99 home +0.35	Lila Torresen / Sabrina Maas Jillian Giordano / Megan Gottfried 0.88 Katherine Simcoe / Tilden Coate 0.99	38%	8–2 (80%)	+4.2
3	University of Michigan Wolverines	3	4.83 home +0.35	Brendan Wojkowski / Savannah Talbert Graham Rebain / Mia Pyenta John Mccalmont / Owen Nofs 1.05	57%	5–5 (50%)	−0.7
4	University of Wisconsin Badgers 1	5	3.92 school −0.27	Sydney Mandell / Carmen Lineer 1.79 Claudia Kroll / Jenna Princing 0.69 Adam Pickhardt / Katherine Ahlquist	37%	5–5 (50%)	+1.3
5	University of Wisconsin Badgers 2	6	2.04 school −0.27	Phineas Tait / Ella Engel Nigel Yu / Sam Burnet 1.17 Alex Bixby / Paige Kurtenbach	7%	3–7 (30%)	+2.3
6	University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish	2	5.62 school −0.25	Timothy Hesse / Kate Norman 2.16 Payden Pittman / Jack O'Connor 1.81 Michael Cyrul / John Sullivan 0–6 Michael Cyrul / Joseph Opferman 1–3	73%	1–9 (10%)	−6.3

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
2	University of Michigan Maize	3.99	6.54	8–2	3.8	+2.55	7.5	<1%
5	University of Wisconsin Badgers 2	2.04	3.92	3–7	0.7	+1.88	3.6	3%
4	University of Wisconsin Badgers 1	3.92	4.70	5–5	3.7	+0.78	0.7	26%
3	University of Michigan Wolverines	4.83	4.44	5–5	5.6	−0.39	0.2	82%
1	University of Michigan Blue	6.53	5.86	8–2	8.8	−0.67	0.4	90%
6	University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish	5.62	1.33	1–9	7.3	−4.29	17.6	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Lila Torresen	University of Michigan	1.51	4.07	8–2	3.8	+2.55	7.5	<1%
Jillian Giordano	University of Michigan	0.88	3.43	8–2	3.8	+2.55	7.5	<1%
Katherine Simcoe	University of Michigan	0.99	3.54	8–2	3.8	+2.55	7.5	<1%
Phineas Tait	University of Wisconsin	1.43	3.31	3–7	0.7	+1.88	3.6	3%
Nigel Yu	University of Wisconsin	1.17	3.04	3–7	0.7	+1.88	3.6	3%
Alex Bixby	University of Wisconsin	-0.57	1.30	3–7	0.7	+1.88	3.6	3%
Sydney Mandell	University of Wisconsin	1.79	2.58	5–5	3.7	+0.78	0.7	26%
Claudia Kroll	University of Wisconsin	0.69	1.47	5–5	3.7	+0.78	0.7	26%
Adam Pickhardt	University of Wisconsin	1.64	2.42	5–5	3.7	+0.78	0.7	26%
Brendan Wojkowski	University of Michigan	1.33	0.94	5–5	5.6	−0.39	0.2	82%
Graham Rebain	University of Michigan	1.89	1.50	5–5	5.6	−0.39	0.2	82%
John Mccalmont	University of Michigan	1.05	0.66	5–5	5.6	−0.39	0.2	82%
Lorenzo Puertas	University of Michigan	2.53	1.86	8–2	8.8	−0.67	0.4	90%
Jack Hammett	University of Michigan	1.61	0.95	8–2	8.8	−0.67	0.4	90%
Jack Homa	University of Michigan	1.98	1.31	8–2	8.8	−0.67	0.4	90%
Timothy Hesse	University of Notre Dame	2.16	-2.14	1–9	7.3	−4.29	17.6	>99%
Payden Pittman	University of Notre Dame	1.81	-2.48	1–9	7.3	−4.29	17.6	>99%
Michael Cyrul	University of Notre Dame	1.85	-2.44	1–9	7.3	−4.29	17.6	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	University of Michigan Wolverines	University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish	30%	upset
1	2	University of Michigan Maize	University of Wisconsin Badgers 1	47%	upset
1	3	University of Michigan Blue	University of Wisconsin Badgers 2	99%
1	4	University of Michigan Maize	University of Michigan Wolverines	30%	upset
1	5	University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish	University of Wisconsin Badgers 2	97%
1	6	University of Wisconsin Badgers 1	University of Michigan Blue	7%	upset
1	7	University of Michigan Maize	University of Wisconsin Badgers 2	88%
1	8	University of Michigan Wolverines	University of Wisconsin Badgers 1	70%
1	9	University of Michigan Blue	University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish	71%
1	10	University of Wisconsin Badgers 1	University of Wisconsin Badgers 2	87%
1	11	University of Michigan Maize	University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish	16%	upset
1	12	University of Michigan Blue	University of Michigan Wolverines	85%
1	13	University of Wisconsin Badgers 1	University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish	15%	upset
1	14	University of Michigan Wolverines	University of Wisconsin Badgers 2	94%
1	15	University of Michigan Blue	University of Michigan Maize	93%
2	16	University of Michigan Wolverines	University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish	32%	upset
2	17	University of Wisconsin Badgers 1	University of Michigan Maize	47%	upset
2	18	University of Michigan Blue	University of Wisconsin Badgers 2	99%
2	19	University of Michigan Maize	University of Michigan Wolverines	31%	upset
2	20	University of Wisconsin Badgers 2	University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish	3%	upset
2	21	University of Michigan Blue	University of Wisconsin Badgers 1	93%
2	22	University of Michigan Maize	University of Wisconsin Badgers 2	88%
2	23	University of Michigan Wolverines	University of Wisconsin Badgers 1	73%
2	24	University of Michigan Blue	University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish	70%
2	25	University of Wisconsin Badgers 2	University of Wisconsin Badgers 1	14%	upset
2	26	University of Michigan Maize	University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish	17%	upset
2	27	University of Michigan Blue	University of Michigan Wolverines	84%
2	28	University of Wisconsin Badgers 1	University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish	15%	upset
2	29	University of Wisconsin Badgers 2	University of Michigan Wolverines	6%	upset
2	30	University of Michigan Maize	University of Michigan Blue	8%	upset

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Blue	Maize	Wolverines	1	2	Irish
University of Michigan Blue	11–4	✕	✕	✕	W	W	W
University of Michigan Maize	11–4	✕	✕	✕	W	W	W
University of Michigan Wolverines	11–4	✕	✕	✕	W	W	W
University of Wisconsin Badgers 1	3–7	L	L	L	✕	✕	W
University of Wisconsin Badgers 2	3–7	L	L	L	✕	✕	W
University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish	1–4	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	Blue	Maize	Wolverines	1	2	Irish
University of Michigan Blue	10–5	✕	✕	✕	L	L	W
University of Michigan Maize	10–5	✕	✕	✕	L	L	W
University of Michigan Wolverines	10–5	✕	✕	✕	L	L	W
University of Wisconsin Badgers 1	5–5	W	W	W	✕	✕	W
University of Wisconsin Badgers 2	5–5	W	W	W	✕	✕	W
University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish	0–5	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Wolverines	1-2-5	def.	Fighting Irish	3-4-6
2	Maize	1-3-5	def.	Badgers 1	2-4-6
3	Blue	1-2-5	def.	Badgers 2	3-4-6
4	Maize	1-2-6	def.	Wolverines	3-4-5
5	Fighting Irish	1-2-4	def.	Badgers 2	3-5-6
6	Badgers 1	1-2-6	def.	Blue	3-4-5
7	Maize	1-2-3	def.	Badgers 2	4-5-6
8	Wolverines	1-3-5	def.	Badgers 1	2-4-6
9	Blue	1-2-4	def.	Fighting Irish	3-5-6
10	Badgers 1	1-2-4	def.	Badgers 2	3-5-6
11	Maize	1-2-3	def.	Fighting Irish	4-5-6
12	Blue	1-2-3	def.	Wolverines	4-5-6
13	Badgers 1	2-3-4	def.	Fighting Irish	1-5-6
14	Wolverines	1-2-4	def.	Badgers 2	3-5-6
15	Blue	1-2-4	def.	Maize	3-5-6
16	Wolverines	1-2-3	def.	Fighting Irish	4-5-6
17	Badgers 1	2-3-4	def.	Maize	1-5-6
18	Blue	1-2-3	def.	Badgers 2	4-5-6
19	Maize	1-2-3	def.	Wolverines	4-5-6
20	Badgers 2	1-2-3	def.	Fighting Irish	4-5-6
21	Blue	1-2-5	def.	Badgers 1	3-4-6
22	Maize	1-3-5	def.	Badgers 2	2-4-6
23	Wolverines	1-4-5	def.	Badgers 1	2-3-6
24	Blue	1-2-3	def.	Fighting Irish	4-5-6
25	Badgers 2	1-2-3	def.	Badgers 1	4-5-6
26	Maize	1-2-4	def.	Fighting Irish	3-5-6
27	Blue	1-2-3	def.	Wolverines	4-5-6
28	Badgers 1		def.	Fighting Irish
29	Badgers 2		def.	Wolverines
30	Maize		def.	Blue

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
University of Michigan	Blue	Jack Hammett '26 Jack Homa '27 Lorenzo Puertas '29	Ben Visco '28 Alexander Reynolds '28 Grace Redner '27
University of Michigan	Maize	Jillian Giordano '27 Katherine Simcoe '26 Lila Torresen '29	Megan Gottfried '27 Tilden Coate '29 Sabrina Maas '27
University of Michigan	Wolverines	Brendan Wojkowski '29 Graham Rebain '29 John Mccalmont '27	Savannah Talbert '29 Mia Pyenta '28 Owen Nofs '29
University of Wisconsin	Badgers 1	Adam Pickhardt '27 Claudia Kroll '29 Sydney Mandell '26	Katherine Ahlquist '28 Jenna Princing '28 Carmen Lineer '26
University of Wisconsin	Badgers 2	Alex Bixby '29 Nigel Yu '27 Phineas Tait '26	Paige Kurtenbach '27 Sam Burnet '29 Ella Engel '27
University of Notre Dame	Fighting Irish	Michael Cyrul '28 Payden Pittman '28 Timothy Hesse '27	Joseph Opferman '27 John Sullivan '26 Jack O'Connor '26 Kate Norman '26

Conditions — 03/21/2026 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 61% · Pressure 1015.1 hPa

Temperature

42°F

↑ 51°F ↓ 30°F

Feels like 32°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

11.3 kn

avg · max 13.8 kn

Gusts to 19.8 kn

From SE (144°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover90% Sunshine9.9 hrs Humidity61% Pressure1015.1 hPa

What this breeze does at Michigan — from fleet racing

Breeze: SE about 13 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Michigan in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.10)

Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.10 means a rating gap counts about 8% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Michigan by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 12 labelled days at Michigan, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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