ICSA Open Team Race National Championship

HostBrown/Rhode Island
Date04/24/2025
TypeNational Championship Finals
Boat420/FJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Harvard University	Crimson	20–5
2	Yale University	Bulldogs	19–6
3	Roger Williams University	Hawks	18–7
4	Stanford University	Cardinal	14–11
5	Brown University	Bears	13–9
6	Boston College	Eagles	12–10
7	Dartmouth College	Big Green	12–10
8	Tulane University	Green Wave	8–14
9	U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	8–7
10	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	6–9
11	Georgetown University	Hoyas	6–9
12	Tufts University	Jumbos	6–9
13	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	5–10
14	College of Charleston	Cougars	5–10
15	Bowdoin College	Polar Bears	2–13
16	University of Michigan	Wolverines	0–15

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 27,814 team race matches sailed before 2025-04-24, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 113 of 158 matches (72%) with a log-loss of 0.494 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness +0.15 ± 0.18: a typical event, more orderly than 60% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Harvard University Crimson	1	13.07 school +0.33	Justin Callahan / Kennedy Leehealey 4.61 18–4 Mitchell Callahan / Rosella Irfan 4.03 18–4 Robby Meek / Alexandra Dorofeev 4.12 18–4 Justin Callahan / Aidan Pesce 4.37 2–1 Mitchell Callahan / Alexandra Dorofeev 4.12 2–1 Robby Meek / Kennedy Leehealey 4.08 2–1	78%	20–5 (80%)	+0.6
2	Yale University Bulldogs	2	12.91 school +0.31	Stephan Baker / Ashley Highland 4.36 Jack Egan / Elle Sykes 4.28 15–3 Carmen Cowles / Carmen Berg 3.87 10–1 Carmen Cowles / Ximena Escobar 3.88 6–3 Jack Egan / Nathan Sih 4.29 4–3 Mia Nicolosi / Ximena Escobar 4.27 2–2 Mia Nicolosi / Sarah Moeder 4.21 1–0	76%	19–6 (76%)	+0.1
3	Roger Williams University Hawks	4	12.19 school +0.42	Mathieu Dale / Addyson Fisher 3.62 Kyle Pfrang / Claire Buckley 3.99 11–5 Carlos De Castro / Jed Lory 4.22 8–5 Carlos De Castro / Carly Kiss 4.26 10–2 Kyle Pfrang / Ethan Snyder 3.71 6–0 Kyle Pfrang / Carter Sheehan 3.86 1–2	61%	18–7 (72%)	+2.8
4	Stanford University Cardinal	3	12.44 school +0.29	Vanessa Lahrkamp / Ashtyn Tierney 4.22 14–6 Reade Decker / Ellie Harned 3.85 10–1 Thomas Sitzmann / Alice Schmid 4.19 10–1 Reade Decker / Piper Blackband 3.67 4–5 Thomas Sitzmann / Ellie Harned 4.19 4–5 Reade Decker / Kit Harned 3.66 1–5 Thomas Sitzmann / Ashtyn Tierney 4.04 1–5 Vanessa Lahrkamp / Dylan Sih 4.27 1–5	66%	15–11 (58%)	−2.2
5	Brown University Bears	7	11.61 school +0.38	Guthrie Braun / Emily Mueller 4.08 Blake Behrens / Caroline Keeffe-Jones 3.69 10–8 Leyton Borcherding / Helen Horangic 3.50 10–8 Leyton Borcherding / Caroline Keeffe-Jones 3.39 3–2 Cam Spriggs / Brianna Ross 3.48 1–2 Blake Behrens / Cam Spriggs 3.70 2–0	50%	13–10 (57%)	+1.6
6	Boston College Eagles	6	11.72 school +0.37	Jack Redmond / Matt Budington 3.84 12–8 Peter Busch / Sara Schumann 3.82 6–8 Michael Kirkman / Caroline Sibilly 3.68 4–6 Peter Busch / Brendan Peary 3.78 7–3 Michael Kirkman / Nick Budington 3.76 7–3 Jack Redmond / Lanie Ferrarone 3.85 1–3 Michael Kirkman / Brendan Peary 3.63 2–2	54%	13–11 (54%)	+0.1
7	Dartmouth College Big Green	10	11.45 school +0.36	William Michels / Reese Bragg 3.66 12–7 Chase Decker / Phoebe Lee 3.80 11–8 Ryan Satterberg / Madeline Koelbel 3.65 8–4 Sarah Young / Lilly Baker 3.60 5–3 William Michels / Lilly Baker 3.67 0–2 Ryan Satterberg / Phoebe Lee 3.62 0–2 Chase Decker / Alexandra Pierce 3.77 0–2 William Michels / Alexandra Pierce 3.59 0–1 Ryan Satterberg / Lilly Baker 3.65 0–1	47%	12–10 (55%)	+1.6
8	Tulane University Green Wave	13	10.82 school −0.08	Hamilton Barclay / Cj Ricci 3.71 Christian Ebbin / Sabrina Anderson 3.69 7–11 Kelly Holthus / Parker Kumler 3.48 6–6 Kelly Holthus / Taylor Bartell 3.48 1–5 Christian Ebbin / Elizabeth Struve 3.63 2–4 Kelly Holthus / Brady Starck 3.54 2–4	33%	9–15 (38%)	+1.1
9	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	5	11.74 school +0.22	Henry Allgeier / Fiona Cullen 3.79 Jack Welburn / Darby Graham 3.70 Nathan Smith / Ellie Alex 4.00 7–7 Nathan Smith / Ryan Wahba 4.12 2–1	58%	9–8 (53%)	−0.9
10	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	9	11.29 school +0.40	Charlie Anderson / Jane Wright 3.52 4–9 Landon Cormie / Emily Shioutakon 3.43 3–7 Owen Hennessey / Zoe Hoctor 3.97 2–7 Owen Hennessey / Brooke Bertrand 3.88 3–2 Landon Cormie / Henry Haddon 3.39 2–2 Charlie Anderson / Zoe Hoctor 3.51 2–0 Landon Cormie / Raam Fox 3.42 1–0 Owen Hennessey / Henry Haddon 3.94 1–0	49%	6–9 (40%)	−1.4
11	Georgetown University Hoyas	8	11.29 school +0.29	Mateo Di Blasi / Caro Gaston 3.69 4–5 Diego Escobar / Margot Gordon 3.74 4–5 Enzo Menditto / Lucy Jervis 3.51 1–5 Mateo Di Blasi / Teddy Stoldt 3.60 1–4 Enzo Menditto / Spencer Kriegstein 3.70 2–2 Diego Escobar / Spencer Kriegstein 3.81 1–3 Jeffrey Petersen / Spencer Kriegstein 3.63 1–2 Peter Barnard / Spencer Kriegstein 3.69 0–1 Enzo Menditto / Xavier Stoldt 3.52 1–0 Mateo Di Blasi / Ellie Smith 3.64 1–0 Diego Escobar / Vaughn Slatoff 3.64 1–0 Jeffrey Petersen / Ellie Smith 3.47 1–0	49%	6–9 (40%)	−1.4
12	Tufts University Jumbos	12	10.54 school +0.33	Kurt Stuebe / Naomi Pedersen 3.44 4–9 Wyatt Bischoff / Cindy Wang 3.17 5–8 Ben Mueller / Cody Lamoreux 3.66 0–6 Ben Mueller / Courtland Doyle 3.52 4–1 Ben Mueller / Kate Castleberry 3.50 1–2 Wyatt Bischoff / Cody Lamoreux 3.19 1–1 Ben Mueller / Nicolas Echarte 3.60 1–0 Kurt Stuebe / Courtland Doyle 3.42 1–0 Kurt Stuebe / Cody Lamoreux 3.55 1–0	35%	6–9 (40%)	+0.8
13	U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	14	10.35 school +0.13	Colman Schofield / Charles Pohl 3.87 Nicholas Reeser / Daniel Neville 3.62 Jack Derry / Sarah Krajewski 2.71	30%	5–10 (33%)	+0.4
14	College of Charleston Cougars	11	10.92 school +0.34	Benjamin Dufour / Andrea Melnik 3.81 4–8 Noah Zittrer / Clara Murphy 3.71 3–8 Axel Stordahl / Lucy Elvart 3.15 4–4 Axel Stordahl / Lucy Zinn 3.03 0–5 Noah Zittrer / Aidan Iaconis 3.67 2–2 Axel Stordahl / Andrea Melnik 3.18 1–1 Benjamin Dufour / Garrett Grenauer 3.76 1–1 Jonnie Ciffolillo / Andrea Melnik 3.28 0–1	41%	5–10 (33%)	−1.1
15	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	15	10.03	Sam Bonauto / Timmy Gee 3.58 2–12 Thibault Antonietti / Holliss Hirsch 3.55 2–12 Michelangelo Vecchio / Elizabeth Wire 3.00 2–7 Ethan Danielson / Elizabeth Wire 2.62 0–3 Michelangelo Vecchio / Aidan Michelow 3.15 0–1 Michelangelo Vecchio / Kaile Olson 2.94 0–1 Sam Bonauto / Holliss Hirsch 3.60 0–1 Kyra Phelan / Timmy Gee 2.83 0–1 Thibault Antonietti / Elizabeth Wire 3.43 0–1	26%	2–13 (13%)	−1.9
16	University of Michigan Wolverines	16	5.25	Jack Homa / Nina Gonzalez 1.85 0–10 Jack Hammett / Abigail Paul 1.59 0–10 Alden Gort / Alexander Reynolds 0–8 Billy Vogel / Alexander Reynolds 1.97 0–7 Jack Homa / Ben Visco 1.86 0–5 Billy Vogel / Abigail Paul 2.02 0–3 Jack Hammett / Alden Gort 1.49 0–2	0%	0–15 (0%)	−0.0

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
3	Roger Williams University	12.19	12.78	18–7	15.2	+0.59	1.1	15%
7	Dartmouth College	11.45	11.81	12–10	10.4	+0.36	0.4	30%
5	Brown University	11.61	11.96	13–10	11.4	+0.34	0.4	31%
12	Tufts University	10.54	10.84	6–9	5.2	+0.30	0.2	41%
8	Tulane University	10.82	11.06	9–15	7.9	+0.24	0.2	38%
13	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	10.35	10.53	5–10	4.6	+0.18	0.1	50%
1	Harvard University	13.07	13.23	20–5	19.4	+0.16	0.1	50%
2	Yale University	12.91	12.93	19–6	18.9	+0.02	0.0	59%
6	Boston College	11.72	11.74	13–11	12.9	+0.01	0.0	58%
9	U. S. Naval Academy	11.74	11.47	9–8	9.9	−0.27	0.2	78%
14	College of Charleston	10.92	10.49	5–10	6.1	−0.43	0.3	84%
4	Stanford University	12.44	11.99	15–11	17.2	−0.44	0.7	89%
10	St. Mary's College of Maryland	11.29	10.81	6–9	7.4	−0.48	0.5	87%
11	Georgetown University	11.29	10.79	6–9	7.4	−0.50	0.5	87%
15	Bowdoin College	10.03	8.75	2–13	3.9	−1.27	1.5	97%
16	University of Michigan	5.25	2.25	0–15	0.0	≤−3.00	0.1	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Carlos De Castro	Roger Williams University	4.22	4.81	18–7	15.2	+0.59	1.1	15%
Ben Mueller	Tufts University	3.66	3.96	6–9	5.2	+0.30	0.2	41%
Jack Derry	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	2.71	2.89	5–10	4.6	+0.18	0.1	50%
Carmen Cowles	Yale University	3.87	4.01	16–4	15.6	+0.14	0.0	53%
Benjamin Dufour	College of Charleston	3.81	3.40	5–9	6.0	−0.40	0.3	83%
Axel Stordahl	College of Charleston	3.15	2.72	5–10	6.1	−0.43	0.3	84%
Charlie Anderson	St. Mary's College of Maryland	3.52	3.04	6–9	7.4	−0.48	0.5	87%
Landon Cormie	St. Mary's College of Maryland	3.43	2.95	6–9	7.4	−0.48	0.5	87%
Michelangelo Vecchio	Bowdoin College	3.00	1.90	2–9	3.4	−1.11	1.0	94%
Thibault Antonietti	Bowdoin College	3.55	2.28	2–13	3.9	−1.27	1.5	97%
Alden Gort	University of Michigan	1.39	-1.61	0–8	0.0	≤−3.00	0.0	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
4	152	Stanford University	Brown University	71%
4	153	Yale University	Roger Williams University	63%
4	154	Harvard University	Stanford University	67%
4	155	Stanford University	Yale University	39%	upset
4	156	Roger Williams University	Harvard University	32%	upset
4	157	Roger Williams University	Stanford University	43%	upset
4	158	Yale University	Harvard University	53%
7	121	Boston College	Tulane University	72%
7	122	Tulane University	U. S. Naval Academy	29%	upset
7	123	U. S. Naval Academy	Boston College	52%
8	124	Dartmouth College	Brown University	46%	upset
8	125	Stanford University	Yale University	39%	upset
8	126	Roger Williams University	Tulane University	81%
8	127	Boston College	Harvard University	20%	upset
8	128	Yale University	Dartmouth College	79%
8	129	Brown University	Roger Williams University	36%	upset
8	130	Boston College	Stanford University	38%	upset
8	131	Harvard University	Tulane University	91%
8	132	Yale University	Roger Williams University	63%
8	133	Boston College	Dartmouth College	57%
8	134	Brown University	Tulane University	70%
8	135	Harvard University	Stanford University	67%
8	136	Roger Williams University	Boston College	64%
8	137	Yale University	Tulane University	88%
8	138	Stanford University	Dartmouth College	76%
8	139	Harvard University	Brown University	81%
8	140	Boston College	Tulane University	72%
8	141	Roger Williams University	Stanford University	43%	upset
8	142	Yale University	Brown University	82%
8	143	Harvard University	Dartmouth College	84%
8	144	Stanford University	Tulane University	85%
8	145	Brown University	Boston College	45%	upset
8	146	Roger Williams University	Dartmouth College	64%
8	147	Harvard University	Yale University	47%	upset
8	148	Stanford University	Brown University	71%
8	149	Dartmouth College	Tulane University	65%
8	150	Yale University	Boston College	75%
8	151	Harvard University	Roger Williams University	68%
16	1	Dartmouth College	Harvard University	16%	upset
16	2	Yale University	Georgetown University	80%
16	3	Brown University	University of Michigan	100%
16	4	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Bowdoin College	77%
16	5	Stanford University	U. S. Naval Academy	70%
16	6	Roger Williams University	Boston College	64%
16	7	Tufts University	Tulane University	41%	upset
16	8	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	College of Charleston	37%	upset
16	9	Brown University	Harvard University	19%	upset
16	10	Yale University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	82%
16	11	Dartmouth College	University of Michigan	100%
16	12	Georgetown University	Bowdoin College	85%
16	13	Stanford University	Tulane University	85%
16	14	Roger Williams University	College of Charleston	80%
16	15	U. S. Naval Academy	Tufts University	78%
16	16	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Boston College	20%	upset
16	17	Harvard University	University of Michigan	100%
16	18	Yale University	Bowdoin College	96%
16	19	Stanford University	Dartmouth College	76%
16	20	Roger Williams University	Georgetown University	70%
16	21	Brown University	U. S. Naval Academy	49%	upset
16	22	Boston College	St. Mary's College of Maryland	60%
16	23	Harvard University	Tufts University	93%
16	24	Yale University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	92%
16	25	Dartmouth College	Tulane University	65%
16	26	Georgetown University	College of Charleston	62%
16	27	Stanford University	University of Michigan	100%
16	28	Roger Williams University	Bowdoin College	93%
16	29	Brown University	Tufts University	74%
16	30	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	St. Mary's College of Maryland	29%	upset
16	31	Harvard University	U. S. Naval Academy	80%
16	32	Yale University	Boston College	75%
16	33	Tulane University	University of Michigan	100%
16	34	College of Charleston	Bowdoin College	68%
16	35	Dartmouth College	Tufts University	70%
16	36	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Georgetown University	27%	upset
16	37	Brown University	Stanford University	29%	upset
16	38	Roger Williams University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	72%
16	39	Harvard University	Tulane University	91%
16	40	Yale University	College of Charleston	86%
16	41	Tufts University	University of Michigan	99%
16	42	Bowdoin College	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	44%	upset
16	43	U. S. Naval Academy	Dartmouth College	56%
16	44	Boston College	Georgetown University	59%
16	45	Tulane University	Brown University	30%	upset
16	46	St. Mary's College of Maryland	College of Charleston	58%
16	47	Harvard University	Stanford University	67%
16	48	Roger Williams University	Yale University	37%	upset
16	49	U. S. Naval Academy	University of Michigan	100%
16	50	Boston College	Bowdoin College	82%
16	51	Dartmouth College	Brown University	46%	upset
16	52	Georgetown University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	47%	upset
16	53	Stanford University	Tufts University	85%
16	54	Roger Williams University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	88%
16	55	Tulane University	U. S. Naval Academy	29%	upset
16	56	Boston College	College of Charleston	67%
16	57	Dartmouth College	Yale University	21%	upset
16	58	Harvard University	Bowdoin College	95%
16	59	Brown University	Georgetown University	61%
16	60	Stanford University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	77%
16	61	Tufts University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	53%
16	62	College of Charleston	U. S. Naval Academy	33%	upset
16	63	Yale University	Tulane University	88%
16	64	Roger Williams University	University of Michigan	100%
16	65	Dartmouth College	Boston College	43%	upset
16	66	Harvard University	Georgetown University	87%
16	67	Tufts University	Bowdoin College	60%
16	68	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Brown University	39%	upset
16	69	Yale University	Stanford University	61%
16	70	Tulane University	Roger Williams University	19%	upset
16	71	U. S. Naval Academy	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	81%
16	72	College of Charleston	University of Michigan	100%
16	73	Dartmouth College	Georgetown University	57%
16	74	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Tufts University	66%
16	75	Yale University	Brown University	82%
16	76	Harvard University	Roger Williams University	68%
16	77	Boston College	Stanford University	37%	upset
16	78	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	University of Michigan	100%
16	79	Tulane University	College of Charleston	46%	upset
16	80	U. S. Naval Academy	Bowdoin College	85%
16	81	Tufts University	Georgetown University	36%	upset
16	82	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Dartmouth College	46%	upset
16	83	Brown University	Boston College	45%	upset
16	84	Stanford University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	87%
16	85	Harvard University	College of Charleston	90%
16	86	Roger Williams University	U. S. Naval Academy	64%
16	87	Bowdoin College	University of Michigan	99%
16	88	Yale University	Tufts University	93%
16	89	Tulane University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	37%	upset
16	90	Georgetown University	Stanford University	28%	upset
16	91	Dartmouth College	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	76%
16	92	U. S. Naval Academy	Boston College	52%
16	93	Brown University	Roger Williams University	36%	upset
16	94	Harvard University	Yale University	46%	upset
16	95	Tulane University	Bowdoin College	67%
16	96	St. Mary's College of Maryland	University of Michigan	100%
16	97	College of Charleston	Dartmouth College	37%	upset
16	98	Boston College	Tufts University	74%
16	99	Brown University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	79%
16	100	Yale University	U. S. Naval Academy	80%
16	101	Roger Williams University	Stanford University	43%	upset
16	102	Georgetown University	University of Michigan	100%
16	103	Harvard University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	86%
16	104	Boston College	Tulane University	72%
16	105	Brown University	Bowdoin College	82%
16	106	Tufts University	College of Charleston	41%	upset
16	107	Roger Williams University	Dartmouth College	64%
16	108	U. S. Naval Academy	Georgetown University	62%
16	109	Harvard University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	94%
16	110	Boston College	University of Michigan	100%
16	111	Stanford University	Bowdoin College	92%
16	112	College of Charleston	Brown University	33%	upset
16	113	Roger Williams University	Tufts University	80%
16	114	Georgetown University	Tulane University	59%
16	115	U. S. Naval Academy	St. Mary's College of Maryland	59%
16	116	Yale University	University of Michigan	100%
16	117	Harvard University	Boston College	80%
16	118	Dartmouth College	Bowdoin College	76%
16	119	Stanford University	College of Charleston	90%
16	120	Tulane University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	62%

Round 4

Team	Rec.	Crimson	Bulldogs	Hawks	Cardinal	Bears
Harvard University Crimson	1–2	✕	L	L	W	–
Yale University Bulldogs	2–1	W	✕	W	L	–
Roger Williams University Hawks	2–1	W	L	✕	W	–
Stanford University Cardinal	2–2	L	W	L	✕	W
Brown University Bears	0–1	–	–	–	L	✕

Round 7

Team	Rec.	Eagles	Wave	Midshipmen
Boston College Eagles	1–1	✕	W	L
Tulane University Green Wave	1–1	L	✕	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	1–1	W	L	✕

Round 8

Team	Rec.	Crimson	Bulldogs	Hawks	Cardinal	Bears	Eagles	Green	Wave
Harvard University Crimson	6–1	✕	W	W	W	W	L	W	W
Yale University Bulldogs	5–2	L	✕	W	L	W	W	W	W
Roger Williams University Hawks	4–3	L	L	✕	W	L	W	W	W
Stanford University Cardinal	4–3	L	W	L	✕	W	L	W	W
Brown University Bears	3–4	L	L	W	L	✕	W	L	W
Boston College Eagles	4–3	W	L	L	W	L	✕	W	W
Dartmouth College Big Green	2–5	L	L	L	L	W	L	✕	W
Tulane University Green Wave	0–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 16

Team	Rec.	Crimson	Bulldogs	Hawks	Cardinal	Bears	Eagles	Green	Wave	Midshipmen	Seahawks	Hoyas	Jumbos	Bears	Cougars	Bears	Wolverines
Harvard University Crimson	13–2	✕	W	W	W	L	W	L	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Yale University Bulldogs	12–3	L	✕	L	W	W	W	L	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Roger Williams University Hawks	12–3	L	W	✕	W	L	W	W	L	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Stanford University Cardinal	9–6	L	L	L	✕	L	L	W	W	W	W	L	W	W	W	W	W
Brown University Bears	10–5	W	L	W	W	✕	W	L	L	W	L	W	W	W	L	W	W
Boston College Eagles	8–7	L	L	L	W	L	✕	L	W	L	W	W	W	L	W	W	W
Dartmouth College Big Green	10–5	W	W	L	L	W	W	✕	W	L	L	W	W	W	L	W	W
Tulane University Green Wave	8–7	L	L	W	L	W	L	L	✕	W	W	L	L	W	W	W	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	8–7	L	L	L	L	L	W	W	L	✕	W	W	W	W	L	W	W
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	6–9	L	L	L	L	W	L	W	L	L	✕	L	W	L	W	W	W
Georgetown University Hoyas	6–9	L	L	L	W	L	L	L	W	L	W	✕	L	L	W	W	W
Tufts University Jumbos	6–9	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	L	W	✕	W	W	W	W
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	5–10	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	L	L	W	W	L	✕	W	L	W
College of Charleston Cougars	5–10	L	L	L	L	W	L	W	L	W	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W
Bowdoin College Polar Bears	2–13	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	✕	W
University of Michigan Wolverines	0–15	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
152	Cardinal	2-3-4	def.	Bears	1-5-6
153	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Hawks	3-5-6
154	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Cardinal	3-4-6
155	Cardinal	1-2-6	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-5
156	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Crimson	4-5-6
157	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Cardinal	4-5-6
158	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	Crimson	3-4-5
121	Eagles	1-2-6	def.	Green Wave	3-4-5
122	Green Wave	2-3-4	def.	Midshipmen	1-5-6
123	Midshipmen	2-3-5	def.	Eagles	1-4-6
124	Big Green	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
125	Cardinal	2-3-4	def.	Bulldogs	1-5-6
126	Hawks	1-2-4	def.	Green Wave	3-5-6
127	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Crimson	3-5-6
128	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Big Green	3-4-6
129	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Hawks	3-4-6
130	Eagles	1-4-5	def.	Cardinal	2-3-6
131	Crimson	1-3-5	def.	Green Wave	2-4-6
132	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Hawks	3-4-6
133	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Big Green	3-4-6
134	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Green Wave	3-5-6
135	Crimson	1-3-4	def.	Cardinal	2-5-6 DSQ
136	Hawks	2-3-4	def.	Eagles	1-5-6
137	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	Green Wave	3-4-5
138	Cardinal	1-2-6	def.	Big Green	3-4-5
139	Crimson	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
140	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Green Wave	3-4-6
141	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Cardinal	4-5-6
142	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
143	Crimson	1-2-4	def.	Big Green	3-5-6
144	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Green Wave	3-4-6
145	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Eagles	3-4-5
146	Hawks	2-3-4	def.	Big Green	1-5-6
147	Crimson	1-3-5	def.	Bulldogs	2-4-6
148	Cardinal	2-3-5	def.	Bears	1-4-6
149	Big Green	1-2-6	def.	Green Wave	3-4-5
150	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Eagles	3-5-6
151	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Hawks	4-5-6
1	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Crimson	3-4-6
2	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Hoyas	4-5-6
3	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Wolverines	3-4-5
4	Seahawks	1-2-3	def.	Polar Bears	4-5-6
5	Cardinal	1-4-5	def.	Midshipmen	2-3-6
6	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Eagles	4-5-6
7	Jumbos	1-2-3	def.	Green Wave	4-5-6
8	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Cougars	3-5-6
9	Bears	2-3-4	def.	Crimson	1-5-6
10	Bulldogs	2-3-4	def.	Seahawks	1-5-6
11	Big Green	1-2-3	def.	Wolverines	4-5-6
12	Hoyas	2-3-4	def.	Polar Bears	1-5-6
13	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Green Wave	3-4-6
14	Hawks	1-2-6	def.	Cougars	3-4-5
15	Midshipmen	2-3-5	def.	Jumbos	1-4-6
16	Bears	2-3-4	def.	Eagles	1-5-6
17	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Wolverines	4-5-6
18	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Polar Bears	3-5-6
19	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Big Green	3-5-6
20	Hawks	1-2-6	def.	Hoyas	3-4-5
21	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Midshipmen	4-5-6
22	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
23	Crimson	1-2-6	def.	Jumbos	3-4-5
24	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
25	Big Green	2-3-4	def.	Green Wave	1-5-6
26	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Cougars	4-5-6
27	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Wolverines	4-5-6
28	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-6
29	Bears	1-3-4	def.	Jumbos	2-5-6
30	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Seahawks	3-5-6
31	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Midshipmen	4-5-6
32	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Eagles	3-5-6
33	Green Wave	1-2-3	def.	Wolverines	4-5-6
34	Cougars	1-3-4	def.	Polar Bears	2-5-6
35	Big Green	2-3-4	def.	Jumbos	1-5-6
36	Bears	1-3-4	def.	Hoyas	2-5-6
37	Bears	1-3-6	def.	Cardinal	2-4-5
38	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Seahawks	4-5-6
39	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Green Wave	4-5-6
40	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Cougars	4-5-6
41	Jumbos	1-2-3	def.	Wolverines	4-5-6
42	Polar Bears	1-3-5	def.	Bears	2-4-6
43	Midshipmen	1-2-6	def.	Big Green	3-4-5
44	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Hoyas	4-5-6
45	Green Wave	1-3-4	def.	Bears	2-5-6
46	Seahawks	1-2-5	def.	Cougars	3-4-6
47	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Cardinal	4-5-6
48	Hawks	2-3-4	def.	Bulldogs	1-5-6
49	Midshipmen	1-2-3	def.	Wolverines	4-5-6
50	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-6
51	Big Green	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
52	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
53	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Jumbos	3-5-6
54	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
55	Green Wave	1-2-3	def.	Midshipmen	4-5-6
56	Eagles	1-3-6	def.	Cougars	2-4-5
57	Big Green	2-3-4	def.	Bulldogs	1-5-6
58	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Polar Bears	4-5-6
59	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Hoyas	3-4-6
60	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
61	Jumbos	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
62	Cougars	1-2-6	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-5
63	Bulldogs	2-3-4	def.	Green Wave	1-5-6
64	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Wolverines	4-5-6
65	Big Green	1-3-6	def.	Eagles	2-4-5
66	Crimson	1-2-4	def.	Hoyas	3-5-6
67	Jumbos	1-2-5	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-6
68	Seahawks	1-3-6	def.	Bears	2-4-5
69	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Cardinal	3-4-6
70	Green Wave	1-2-4	def.	Hawks	3-5-6
71	Midshipmen	1-3-4	def.	Bears	2-5-6
72	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Wolverines	4-5-6
73	Big Green	1-3-5	def.	Hoyas	2-4-6
74	Seahawks	1-2-3	def.	Jumbos	4-5-6
75	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
76	Crimson	1-3-4	def.	Hawks	2-5-6
77	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Cardinal	3-4-6
78	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Wolverines	4-5-6
79	Green Wave	2-3-4	def.	Cougars	1-5-6
80	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-6
81	Jumbos	1-3-4	def.	Hoyas	2-5-6
82	Seahawks	1-2-4	def.	Big Green	3-5-6
83	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Eagles	4-5-6
84	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
85	Crimson	1-2-4	def.	Cougars	3-5-6
86	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Midshipmen	4-5-6
87	Polar Bears	1-2-3	def.	Wolverines	4-5-6
88	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Jumbos	3-5-6
89	Green Wave	1-3-5	def.	Seahawks	2-4-6
90	Hoyas	1-3-6	def.	Cardinal	2-4-5
91	Big Green	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
92	Midshipmen	1-2-4	def.	Eagles	3-5-6
93	Bears	1-3-4	def.	Hawks	2-5-6
94	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Bulldogs	4-5-6
95	Green Wave	1-2-5	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-6
96	Seahawks	1-2-3	def.	Wolverines	4-5-6
97	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Big Green	4-5-6
98	Eagles	2-3-4	def.	Jumbos	1-5-6
99	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
100	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Midshipmen	3-5-6
101	Hawks	2-3-4	def.	Cardinal	1-5-6
102	Hoyas	1-2-4	def.	Wolverines	3-5-6
103	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Seahawks	4-5-6
104	Eagles	1-2-6	def.	Green Wave	3-4-5
105	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-6
106	Jumbos	1-2-4	def.	Cougars	3-5-6
107	Hawks	1-2-6	def.	Big Green	3-4-5
108	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Hoyas	3-4-6
109	Crimson	1-3-4	def.	Bears	2-5-6
110	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Wolverines	4-5-6
111	Cardinal	1-3-5	def.	Polar Bears	2-4-6
112	Cougars	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
113	Hawks	1-3-6	def.	Jumbos	2-4-5
114	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Green Wave	4-5-6
115	Midshipmen	1-3-5	def.	Seahawks	2-4-6
116	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Wolverines	4-5-6
117	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Eagles	4-5-6
118	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-6
119	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Cougars	3-4-6
120	Green Wave	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Harvard University	Crimson	Justin Callahan '26 Mitchell Callahan '26 Robby Meek '27	Kennedy Leehealey '26 Aidan Pesce '26 Rosella Irfan '27 Alexandra Dorofeev '25
Yale University	Bulldogs	Carmen Cowles '25 Jack Egan '25 Mia Nicolosi '25 Stephan Baker '26	Carmen Berg '26 Ximena Escobar '25 Nathan Sih '25 Elle Sykes '27 Sarah Moeder '26 Ashley Highland '27
Roger Williams University	Hawks	Carlos De Castro '26 Kyle Pfrang '26 Mathieu Dale '25	Jed Lory '27 Carly Kiss '25 Carter Sheehan '27 Ethan Snyder '25 Claire Buckley '25 Addyson Fisher '27
Stanford University	Cardinal	Reade Decker '27 Thomas Sitzmann '27 Vanessa Lahrkamp '26	Piper Blackband '28 Ellie Harned '26 Kit Harned '27 Alice Schmid '27 Ashtyn Tierney '28 Dylan Sih '28
Brown University	Bears	Blake Behrens '27 Cam Spriggs '27 Guthrie Braun '26 Leyton Borcherding '25	Caroline Keeffe-Jones '26 Cam Spriggs '27 Brianna Ross '26 Emily Mueller '25 Helen Horangic '25
Boston College	Eagles	Jack Redmond '26 Michael Kirkman '25 Peter Busch '26	Matt Budington '25 Lanie Ferrarone '28 Caroline Sibilly '26 Nick Budington '25 Brendan Peary '27 Sara Schumann '25
Dartmouth College	Big Green	Chase Decker '28 Ryan Satterberg '27 Sarah Young '25 William Michels '25	Phoebe Lee '26 Alexandra Pierce '25 Madeline Koelbel '26 Lilly Baker '27 Reese Bragg '25
Tulane University	Green Wave	Christian Ebbin '28 Hamilton Barclay '27 Kelly Holthus '27	Sabrina Anderson '28 Elizabeth Struve '28 Cj Ricci '25 Parker Kumler '27 Taylor Bartell '28 Brady Starck '25
U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	Henry Allgeier '27 Jack Welburn '26 Nathan Smith '26	Fiona Cullen '27 Darby Graham '26 Ellie Alex '26 Ryan Wahba '25
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	Charlie Anderson '25 Landon Cormie '27 Owen Hennessey '25	Jane Wright '28 Zoe Hoctor '25 Henry Haddon '25 Raam Fox '26 Emily Shioutakon '26 Brooke Bertrand '25
Georgetown University	Hoyas	Diego Escobar '25 Enzo Menditto '26 Jeffrey Petersen '25 Mateo Di Blasi '25 Peter Barnard '27	Spencer Kriegstein '25 Margot Gordon '26 Vaughn Slatoff '26 Lucy Jervis '27 Xavier Stoldt '26 Ellie Smith '28 Teddy Stoldt '28 Caro Gaston '25
Tufts University	Jumbos	Ben Mueller '26 Kurt Stuebe '27 Wyatt Bischoff '27	Kate Castleberry '28 Cody Lamoreux '27 Nicolas Echarte '25 Courtland Doyle '27 Naomi Pedersen '25 Cindy Wang '25
U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	Colman Schofield '25 Jack Derry '25 Nicholas Reeser '25	Charles Pohl '26 Sarah Krajewski '26 Daniel Neville '25
College of Charleston	Cougars	Axel Stordahl '24 Benjamin Dufour '26 Jonnie Ciffolillo '27 Noah Zittrer '26	Lucy Zinn '28 Andrea Melnik '27 Lucy Elvart '28 Garrett Grenauer '24 Clara Murphy '27 Aidan Iaconis '26
Bowdoin College	Polar Bears	Ethan Danielson '26 Kyra Phelan '26 Michelangelo Vecchio '27 Sam Bonauto '25 Thibault Antonietti '24	Elizabeth Wire '28 Timmy Gee '25 Kaile Olson '27 Aidan Michelow '25 Holliss Hirsch '25
University of Michigan	Wolverines	Alden Gort '26 Billy Vogel '25 Jack Hammett '26 Jack Homa '27	Alexander Reynolds '28 Abigail Paul '25 Alden Gort '26 Nina Gonzalez '27 Ben Visco '28

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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