Dartmouth College '27
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 40.10 percentile among ICSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.069 rating points from 416 races with rated skippers.
How crew ratings work →| Season | Team | Rating | Range | League percentile |
Team percentile |
On team | Races | Team page |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2026 | Dartmouth College | 2.79 | 80.33 | 42.31 | 8 of 13 | 59 | Team page | |
| Spring 2026 | Dartmouth College | 3.50 | 90.23 | 50.00 | 4 of 7 | 21 | Team page | |
| Fall 2025 | Dartmouth College | 2.70 | 78.25 | 45.83 | 7 of 12 | 52 | Team page | |
| Spring 2025 | Dartmouth College | 2.71 | 74.75 | 10.00 | 5 of 5 | 22 | Team page | |
| Fall 2024 | Dartmouth College | 3.16 | 84.01 | 50.00 | 6 of 11 | 72 | Team page | |
| Spring 2024 | Dartmouth College | 3.13 | 81.84 | 54.17 | 6 of 12 | 15 | Team page | |
| Fall 2023 | Dartmouth College | 2.83 | 76.03 | 43.33 | 9 of 15 | 57 | Team page |
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.41 | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as crew 149–112 (57%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 | 6 | — | 67–41 |
| Spring 2025 | 6 | — | 40–40 |
| Spring 2024 | 6 | — | 42–31 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 18 graded regattas (261 matches) the record is 149–112 against 139.3 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+9.7). 2 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 5 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 12 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-26 | ICSA Women's Team Race National Championship | crew | 3.56 | 3.35 | 9–10 | 9.7 | −0.21 | 0.1 | 74% |
| 2026-04-23 | ICSA Open Team Race National Championship | crew | 3.51 | 3.93 | 15–10 | 13.0 | +0.42 | 0.6 | 25% |
| 2026-04-11 | NEISA Women's Team Race Championship - Legler | crew | 3.54 | 3.04 | 9–7 | 10.5 | −0.50 | 0.6 | 88% |
| 2026-04-04 | NEISA Open Team Race Championship/Fowle Trophy | crew | 3.47 | 4.05 | 13–7 | 11.0 | +0.58 | 0.8 | 21% |
| 2026-03-28 | The Lynn Marchiando Trophy Team Race-2026 | crew | 3.40 | 4.77 | 13–2 | 10.4 | +1.37 | 2.3 | 8% |
| 2026-03-21 | Aaron Szambecki Team Race | crew | 3.42 | 2.87 | 8–5 | 9.2 | −0.55 | 0.5 | 88% |
| 2025-04-27 | ICSA Women's Team Race National Championship | crew | 3.61 | 3.90 | 5–5 | 4.5 | +0.29 | 0.1 | 49% |
| 2025-04-24 | ICSA Open Team Race National Championship | crew | 3.60 | 3.68 | 5–6 | 4.8 | +0.08 | 0.0 | 58% |
| 2025-04-12 | NEISA Women's TR Champs - Legler Trophy | crew | 3.60 | 3.83 | 3–1 | 2.9 | +0.23 | 0.0 | 68% |
| 2025-04-05 | Fowle Trophy | crew | 3.48 | 4.25 | 11–11 | 7.8 | +0.77 | 1.8 | 9% |
| 2025-03-29 | 2025 Marchiando Trophy-Grey Regatta | crew | 3.44 | 3.49 | 10–11 | 9.8 | +0.06 | 0.0 | 55% |
| 2025-03-22 | Aaron Szambecki Team Race | crew | 3.49 | 2.89 | 6–6 | 7.5 | −0.60 | 0.7 | 90% |
| 2024-04-25 | ICSA Open Team Racing National Championship | crew | 3.64 | 4.03 | 12–10 | 10.2 | +0.39 | 0.5 | 27% |
| 2024-04-13 | Thompson Trophy-CGA | crew | 3.25 | 3.79 | 12–7 | 10.1 | +0.54 | 0.8 | 22% |
| 2024-04-06 | NEISA Open Team Race Championship/Fowle | crew | 3.58 | 3.97 | 9–9 | 7.6 | +0.39 | 0.4 | 30% |
| 2024-03-30 | The 41st Cardinal Red Lynne Marchiando Trophy | crew | 3.60 | 6.60 | 3–0 | 2.4 | ≥+3.00 | 0.8 | 54% |
| 2024-03-23 | Aaron Szambecki Team Race | crew | 3.56 | 2.09 | 2–2 | 3.2 | −1.47 | 1.4 | 98% |
| 2024-03-02 | Harvard Women's Team Race | crew | 2.88 | 2.40 | 4–3 | 4.5 | −0.47 | 0.2 | 84% |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Lilly Baker |  Severn School |
'23 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
