Aaron Szambecki Team Race

HostOld Dominion
Date03/22/2025
TypeCross Regional
Boat420/FJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	15–2
2	Georgetown University	Hoyas	12–5
3	Stanford University	Cardinal	9–8
4	Tulane University	Green Wave	9–8
5	Dartmouth College	Big Green	7–7
6	Boston College	Eagles	6–8
7	University of Miami	Hurricanes	5–7
8	Old Dominion University	Monarchs	0–0
9	Fordham University	Rams	4–8
10	George Washington University	Revolutionaries	0–12

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 26,169 team race matches sailed before 2025-03-22, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 56 of 72 matches (78%) with a log-loss of 0.484 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness +0.28 ± 0.25: an orderly event, more orderly than 74% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	1	11.10 school +0.24	Nathan Smith / Ryan Wahba 3.91 11–2 Henry Allgeier / Spencer Dominguez 3.43 8–2 Jack Welburn / Fiona Cullen 3.48 7–2 Henry Allgeier / Fiona Cullen 3.52 7–0 Jack Welburn / Darby Graham 3.56 7–0 Nathan Smith / Ellie Alex 3.85 4–0 Tanner Kelly / Fiona Cullen 3.01 1–0	71%	15–2 (88%)	+2.9
2	Georgetown University Hoyas	2	10.97 school +0.30	Jeffrey Petersen / Spencer Kriegstein 3.46 11–2 Mateo Di Blasi / Caro Gaston 3.62 7–1 Diego Escobar / Margot Gordon 3.62 7–1 Diego Escobar / Teddy Stoldt 3.53 4–4 Mateo Di Blasi / Vaughn Slatoff 3.62 3–4 Enzo Menditto / Xavier Stoldt 3.43 1–3 Mateo Di Blasi / Teddy Stoldt 3.58 2–0 Diego Escobar / Vaughn Slatoff 3.58 1–0	68%	12–5 (71%)	+0.5
3	Stanford University Cardinal	6	10.09 school +0.34	Ellie Harned / Kit Harned 3.34 Sophie Fisher / Alexandra Jones 3.31 Thomas Whidden / Abby Baird 3.05	46%	9–8 (53%)	+1.2
4	Tulane University Green Wave	3	10.69	Hamilton Barclay / Cj Ricci 3.60 7–7 Christian Ebbin / Sabrina Anderson 3.64 6–5 Kelly Holthus / Taylor Bartell 3.43 6–5 Christian Ebbin / Ryan Ehnot 3.58 3–3 Kelly Holthus / Brady Starck 3.47 3–3 Hamilton Barclay / Matheo Graham-Capasso 3.59 2–1	64%	9–8 (53%)	−1.9
5	Dartmouth College Big Green	4	10.46 school +0.26	William Michels / Reese Bragg 3.49 4–5 Sarah Young / Lilly Baker 3.49 4–5 Ryan Satterberg / Phoebe Lee 3.43 2–3 William Michels / Alexandra Pierce 3.42 3–2 Ryan Satterberg / Madeline Koelbel 3.53 2–2 Sarah Young / Will Eggena 3.28 2–2 Ben Sheppard / Phoebe Lee 2.60 2–1 Ryan Satterberg / Lilly Baker 3.55 2–1	57%	7–7 (50%)	−1.0
6	Boston College Eagles	8	9.65 school +0.27	Ian Hopkins Guerra / Kylie Craig 3.08 Peter Joslin / Aiesha Shekhar 3.10 5–6 Alex Lech / Ryan Mcgauley 3.07 2–3 Alex Lech / Paige Roby 3.11 2–3 Alex Lech / Madeline Torrey 3.03 2–2 Peter Joslin / Madeline Torrey 3.26 1–2	39%	6–8 (43%)	+0.5
7	University of Miami Hurricanes	5	9.65 school +0.19	Steven Hardee / Isaac Van Buren 2.89 Atlee Kohl / Briana Hummel 3.42 1–5 Aidan Dennis / Ana Stewart 3.17 1–5 Atlee Kohl / Magnus Weissenberger 3.34 4–2 Aidan Dennis / Jadin Gonzalez 3.15 4–2	53%	5–7 (42%)	−1.4
8	Old Dominion University Monarchs	7	9.20 school +0.35, home +0.36	Pierce Brindley / Isabelle Kanach 2.64 5–6 Diogo Silva / Allison Volk 3.08 5–5 Blake Goodwin / Cadence Goodnight 2.84 5–5 Diogo Silva / Ian Kissel 2.82 0–2 Blake Goodwin / Emil Body-Goldberg 2.68 0–2 Pierce Brindley / Gianna Dewey 2.61 0–1	45%	5–7 (42%)	−0.3
9	Fordham University Rams	9	8.30 school +0.07	Jacob Zils / Andalucia Pilcher 2.96 Lucas Thress / Caroline Newton 2.66 4–7 Patrick Shachoy / Rebecca Keller 2.47 3–3 Patrick Dolan / Isabela Hillmann 2.78 1–4 Patrick Shachoy / Isabela Hillmann 2.40 0–1 Lucas Thress / Parker Keeffe-Jones 2.58 0–1	25%	4–8 (33%)	+1.0
10	George Washington University Revolutionaries	10	7.50 school +0.10	Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia / Brooke Kelley 2.34 Tryg Van Wyk / Sam Schuhwerk 2.29 Jedidiah Bechtel / Ella Adelman 2.74 0–11 Jedidiah Bechtel / Nick Lopez 2.63 0–1	13%	0–12 (0%)	−1.5

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
1	U. S. Naval Academy	11.10	12.28	15–2	12.1	+1.18	2.2	8%
9	Fordham University	8.30	8.85	4–8	3.0	+0.54	0.4	33%
3	Stanford University	10.09	10.44	9–8	7.7	+0.36	0.3	34%
6	Boston College	9.65	9.83	6–8	5.5	+0.18	0.1	50%
2	Georgetown University	10.97	11.12	12–5	11.5	+0.14	0.0	52%
8	Old Dominion University	9.20	9.04	5–7	5.3	−0.16	0.0	72%
5	Dartmouth College	10.46	10.11	7–7	8.0	−0.35	0.3	82%
4	Tulane University	10.69	10.15	9–8	10.9	−0.54	0.7	90%
7	University of Miami	9.65	9.00	5–7	6.4	−0.64	0.6	90%
10	George Washington University	7.50	4.50	0–12	1.5	≤−3.00	2.3	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Lucas Thress	Fordham University	2.66	3.21	4–8	3.0	+0.54	0.4	33%
Ellie Harned	Stanford University	3.34	3.70	9–8	7.7	+0.36	0.3	34%
Alex Lech	Boston College	3.07	3.25	6–8	5.5	+0.18	0.1	50%
Diogo Silva	Old Dominion University	3.08	2.92	5–7	5.3	−0.16	0.0	72%
Atlee Kohl	University of Miami	3.42	2.78	5–7	6.4	−0.64	0.6	90%
Aidan Dennis	University of Miami	3.17	2.53	5–7	6.4	−0.64	0.6	90%
Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia	George Washington University	2.34	-0.66	0–12	1.5	≤−3.00	2.3	>99%
Jedidiah Bechtel	George Washington University	2.74	-0.26	0–12	1.5	≤−3.00	2.3	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Old Dominion University	George Washington University	86%
1	2	U. S. Naval Academy	Fordham University	94%
1	3	Georgetown University	Dartmouth College	56%
1	4	Stanford University	University of Miami	59%
1	5	Tulane University	Boston College	77%
1	6	Old Dominion University	Fordham University	69%
1	7	Dartmouth College	George Washington University	96%
1	8	U. S. Naval Academy	University of Miami	82%
1	9	Tulane University	Georgetown University	42%	upset
1	10	Stanford University	Boston College	63%
1	11	Dartmouth College	Fordham University	91%
1	12	University of Miami	Old Dominion University	60%
1	13	Tulane University	George Washington University	96%
1	14	U. S. Naval Academy	Stanford University	75%
1	15	Georgetown University	Boston College	81%
1	16	Dartmouth College	University of Miami	73%
1	17	Tulane University	Fordham University	90%
1	18	Stanford University	Old Dominion University	69%
1	19	Georgetown University	George Washington University	97%
1	20	Boston College	U. S. Naval Academy	19%	upset
1	21	Tulane University	University of Miami	73%
1	22	Stanford University	Dartmouth College	35%	upset
1	23	Georgetown University	Fordham University	95%
1	24	U. S. Naval Academy	Old Dominion University	86%
1	25	Boston College	George Washington University	90%
1	26	Tulane University	Stanford University	65%
1	27	Georgetown University	University of Miami	79%
1	28	U. S. Naval Academy	Dartmouth College	63%
1	29	Fordham University	George Washington University	66%
1	30	Old Dominion University	Boston College	40%	upset
1	31	Stanford University	Georgetown University	30%	upset
1	32	U. S. Naval Academy	Tulane University	60%
1	33	University of Miami	George Washington University	89%
1	34	Dartmouth College	Old Dominion University	63%
1	35	Boston College	Fordham University	81%
1	36	U. S. Naval Academy	Georgetown University	54%
1	37	Stanford University	George Washington University	93%
1	38	Tulane University	Old Dominion University	86%
1	39	University of Miami	Fordham University	80%
1	40	Boston College	Dartmouth College	32%	upset
1	41	U. S. Naval Academy	George Washington University	96%
1	42	Georgetown University	Old Dominion University	89%
1	43	Stanford University	Fordham University	88%
1	44	Tulane University	Dartmouth College	75%
1	45	University of Miami	Boston College	46%	upset
4	51	Fordham University	Old Dominion University	32%	upset
4	52	University of Miami	George Washington University	89%
4	55	Old Dominion University	George Washington University	85%
4	56	Fordham University	University of Miami	19%	upset
4	59	Fordham University	George Washington University	66%
4	60	Old Dominion University	University of Miami	40%	upset
4	67	U. S. Naval Academy	Stanford University	74%
4	68	Georgetown University	Tulane University	58%
4	69	Stanford University	Tulane University	36%	upset
4	70	U. S. Naval Academy	Georgetown University	54%
4	71	Tulane University	U. S. Naval Academy	40%	upset
4	72	Georgetown University	Stanford University	70%
6	46	Georgetown University	Stanford University	70%
6	47	Boston College	Tulane University	26%	upset
6	48	U. S. Naval Academy	Dartmouth College	63%
6	49	Stanford University	Tulane University	35%	upset
6	50	Georgetown University	Dartmouth College	56%
6	53	Boston College	Stanford University	39%	upset
6	54	U. S. Naval Academy	Georgetown University	54%
6	57	U. S. Naval Academy	Stanford University	75%
6	58	Georgetown University	Boston College	79%
6	61	U. S. Naval Academy	Boston College	80%
6	62	Dartmouth College	Tulane University	25%	upset
6	63	Dartmouth College	Boston College	67%
6	64	Georgetown University	Tulane University	58%
6	65	Dartmouth College	Stanford University	64%
6	66	U. S. Naval Academy	Tulane University	60%

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Midshipmen	Hoyas	Cardinal	Wave	Green	Eagles	Hurricanes	Monarchs	Rams	Revolutionaries
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	8–1	✕	W	W	W	W	L	W	W	W	W
Georgetown University Hoyas	6–3	L	✕	L	L	W	W	W	W	W	W
Stanford University Cardinal	7–2	L	W	✕	L	W	W	W	W	W	W
Tulane University Green Wave	8–1	L	W	W	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W
Dartmouth College Big Green	4–5	L	L	L	L	✕	L	W	W	W	W
Boston College Eagles	4–5	W	L	L	L	W	✕	L	L	W	W
University of Miami Hurricanes	4–5	L	L	L	L	L	W	✕	W	W	W
Old Dominion University Monarchs	3–6	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	✕	W	W
Fordham University Rams	1–8	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W
George Washington University Revolutionaries	0–9	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 4

Team	Rec.	Midshipmen	Hoyas	Cardinal	Wave	Hurricanes	Monarchs	Rams	Revolutionaries
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	2–1	✕	W	W	L	–	–	–	–
Georgetown University Hoyas	2–1	L	✕	W	W	–	–	–	–
Stanford University Cardinal	1–2	L	L	✕	W	–	–	–	–
Tulane University Green Wave	1–2	W	L	L	✕	–	–	–	–
University of Miami Hurricanes	1–2	–	–	–	–	✕	L	L	W
Old Dominion University Monarchs	2–1	–	–	–	–	W	✕	L	W
Fordham University Rams	3–0	–	–	–	–	W	W	✕	W
George Washington University Revolutionaries	0–3	–	–	–	–	L	L	L	✕

Round 6

Team	Rec.	Midshipmen	Hoyas	Cardinal	Wave	Green	Eagles
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	5–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W
Georgetown University Hoyas	4–1	L	✕	W	W	W	W
Stanford University Cardinal	1–4	L	L	✕	W	L	L
Tulane University Green Wave	0–5	L	L	L	✕	L	L
Dartmouth College Big Green	3–2	L	L	W	W	✕	W
Boston College Eagles	2–3	L	L	W	W	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Monarchs	1-2-3	def.	Revolutionaries	4-5-6
2	Midshipmen	1-2-6	def.	Rams	3-4-5
3	Hoyas	1-2-4	def.	Big Green	3-5-6
4	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Hurricanes	4-5-6
5	Green Wave	1-2-3	def.	Eagles	4-5-6
6	Monarchs	2-3-5	def.	Rams	1-4-6
7	Big Green	1-2-6	def.	Revolutionaries	3-4-5
8	Midshipmen	1-2-3	def.	Hurricanes	4-5-6
9	Green Wave	1-2-4	def.	Hoyas	3-5-6
10	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Eagles	3-5-6
11	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
12	Hurricanes	1-3-5	def.	Monarchs	2-4-6
13	Green Wave	1-2-5	def.	Revolutionaries	3-4-6
14	Midshipmen	1-2-6	def.	Cardinal	3-4-5
15	Hoyas	1-2-4	def.	Eagles	3-5-6
16	Big Green	1-4-5	def.	Hurricanes	2-3-6
17	Green Wave	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
18	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Monarchs	3-5-6
19	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Revolutionaries	4-5-6
20	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
21	Green Wave	1-2-3	def.	Hurricanes	4-5-6
22	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Big Green	3-4-6
23	Hoyas	1-3-6	def.	Rams	2-4-5
24	Midshipmen	1-3-4	def.	Monarchs	2-5-6
25	Eagles	1-3-4	def.	Revolutionaries	2-5-6
26	Green Wave	1-2-4	def.	Cardinal	3-5-6
27	Hoyas	2-3-4	def.	Hurricanes	1-5-6
28	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Big Green	3-4-6
29	Rams	2-3-4	def.	Revolutionaries	1-5-6
30	Monarchs	2-3-4	def.	Eagles	1-5-6
31	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Hoyas	3-4-6
32	Midshipmen	1-2-3	def.	Green Wave	4-5-6
33	Hurricanes	1-2-3	def.	Revolutionaries	4-5-6
34	Big Green	2-3-4	def.	Monarchs	1-5-6
35	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
36	Midshipmen	1-2-6	def.	Hoyas	3-4-5
37	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Revolutionaries	3-5-6
38	Green Wave	1-2-4	def.	Monarchs	3-5-6
39	Hurricanes	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
40	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Big Green	3-5-6
41	Midshipmen	1-2-3	def.	Revolutionaries	4-5-6
42	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Monarchs	3-4-6
43	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
44	Green Wave	1-2-3	def.	Big Green	4-5-6
45	Hurricanes	1-2-4	def.	Eagles	3-5-6
51	Rams	2-3-4	def.	Monarchs	1-5-6
52	Hurricanes	2-3-4	def.	Revolutionaries	1-5-6
55	Monarchs	1-2-4	def.	Revolutionaries	3-5-6
56	Rams	2-3-4	def.	Hurricanes	1-5-6
59	Rams	1-2-3	def.	Revolutionaries	4-5-6
60	Monarchs	2-3-5	def.	Hurricanes	1-4-6
67	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Cardinal	3-4-6
68	Hoyas	1-2-4	def.	Green Wave	3-5-6
69	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Green Wave	3-5-6
70	Midshipmen	1-2-3	def.	Hoyas	4-5-6
71	Green Wave	1-4-5	def.	Midshipmen	2-3-6
72	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Cardinal	3-4-5
46	Hoyas	1-2-4	def.	Cardinal	3-5-6
47	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Green Wave	3-4-6
48	Midshipmen	2-3-4	def.	Big Green	1-5-6
49	Cardinal	2-3-4	def.	Green Wave	1-5-6
50	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Big Green	3-4-5
53	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Cardinal	3-5-6
54	Midshipmen	1-3-6	def.	Hoyas	2-4-5
57	Midshipmen	1-3-4	def.	Cardinal	2-5-6
58	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Eagles	4-5-6
61	Midshipmen	1-2-6	def.	Eagles	3-4-5
62	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Green Wave	3-4-6
63	Big Green	1-3-4	def.	Eagles	2-5-6
64	Hoyas	1-4-5	def.	Green Wave	2-3-6
65	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Cardinal	3-4-6
66	Midshipmen	1-2-6	def.	Green Wave	3-4-5

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	Henry Allgeier '27 Jack Welburn '26 Nathan Smith '26 Tanner Kelly '25	Spencer Dominguez '27 Fiona Cullen '27 Darby Graham '26 Ryan Wahba '25 Ellie Alex '26
Georgetown University	Hoyas	Diego Escobar '25 Enzo Menditto '26 Jeffrey Petersen '25 Mateo Di Blasi '25	Teddy Stoldt '28 Margot Gordon '26 Vaughn Slatoff '26 Xavier Stoldt '26 Spencer Kriegstein '25 Caro Gaston '25
Stanford University	Cardinal	Ellie Harned '26 Sophie Fisher '26 Thomas Whidden '28	Kit Harned '27 Alexandra Jones '28 Abby Baird '28
Tulane University	Green Wave	Christian Ebbin '28 Hamilton Barclay '27 Kelly Holthus '27	Ryan Ehnot '26 Sabrina Anderson '28 Matheo Graham-Capasso '26 Cj Ricci '25 Brady Starck '25 Taylor Bartell '28
Dartmouth College	Big Green	Ben Sheppard '27 Ryan Satterberg '27 Sarah Young '25 William Michels '25	Phoebe Lee '26 Lilly Baker '27 Madeline Koelbel '26 Will Eggena '27 Alexandra Pierce '25 Reese Bragg '25
Boston College	Eagles	Alex Lech '28 Ian Hopkins Guerra '26 Peter Joslin '26	Paige Roby '26 Ryan Mcgauley '27 Madeline Torrey '28 Kylie Craig '28 Aiesha Shekhar '28
University of Miami	Hurricanes	Aidan Dennis '25 Atlee Kohl '25 Steven Hardee '26	Ana Stewart '27 Jadin Gonzalez '28 Briana Hummel '27 Magnus Weissenberger '25 Isaac Van Buren '28
Old Dominion University	Monarchs	Blake Goodwin '27 Diogo Silva '26 Pierce Brindley '28	Cadence Goodnight '26 Emil Body-Goldberg '27 Allison Volk '25 Ian Kissel '27 Isabelle Kanach '25 Gianna Dewey '27
Fordham University	Rams	Jacob Zils '27 Lucas Thress '26 Patrick Dolan '25 Patrick Shachoy '28	Andalucia Pilcher '28 Caroline Newton '27 Parker Keeffe-Jones '28 Isabela Hillmann '27 Rebecca Keller '25
George Washington University	Revolutionaries	Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia '26 Jedidiah Bechtel '26 Tryg Van Wyk '26	Brooke Kelley '28 Ella Adelman '26 Nick Lopez '26 Sam Schuhwerk '27

Conditions — 03/22/2025 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 41% · Pressure 1011.1 hPa

Temperature

61°F

↑ 68°F ↓ 46°F

Feels like 53°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

10.3 kn

avg · max 14.5 kn

Gusts to 32.1 kn

From WSW (237°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover9% Sunshine10.8 hrs Humidity41% Pressure1011.1 hPa

What this breeze does at Old Dominion — from fleet racing

Breeze: SW about 12 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Old Dominion in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.04)

Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 4% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Old Dominion by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (76 labelled fleet-race days at Old Dominion).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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