Fowle Trophy

HostHarvard
Date04/05/2025
TypeConference Championship
Boat420/FJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Yale University	Bulldogs	20–3
2	Harvard University	Crimson	19–4
3	Roger Williams University	Hawks	15–8
4	Boston College	Eagles	12–11
5	Dartmouth College	Big Green	12–11
6	Brown University	Bears	10–13
7	Tufts University	Jumbos	8–10
8	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers	5–13
9	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	4–7
10	University of Rhode Island	Rams	3–8
11	Bowdoin College	Polar Bears	1–10
12	Boston University	Terriers	0–11

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 27,096 team race matches sailed before 2025-04-05, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 88 of 109 matches (81%) with a log-loss of 0.447 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.21 ± 0.19: an orderly event, more orderly than 67% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Yale University Bulldogs	2	12.68 school +0.29	Jack Egan / Elle Sykes 4.12 Stephan Baker / Ashley Highland 4.21 Mia Nicolosi / Sarah Moeder 4.05	77%	20–3 (87%)	+2.4
2	Harvard University Crimson	1	12.96 school +0.29, home +0.35	Justin Callahan / Kennedy Leehealey 4.46 Mitchell Callahan / Rosella Irfan 3.94 Robby Meek / Christina Chen 3.87	81%	19–4 (83%)	+0.3
3	Roger Williams University Hawks	3	12.32 school +0.42	Kyle Pfrang / Claire Buckley 4.01 Mathieu Dale / Addyson Fisher 3.56 Carlos De Castro / Carly Kiss 4.33 11–7 Carlos De Castro / Jed Lory 4.28 4–1	69%	15–8 (65%)	−1.0
4	Boston College Eagles	4	11.79 school +0.35	Peter Busch / Sara Schumann 3.91 Michael Kirkman / Caroline Sibilly 3.72 Jack Redmond / Lanie Ferrarone 3.78	59%	12–11 (52%)	−1.5
5	Dartmouth College Big Green	7	10.84 school +0.29	William Michels / Reese Bragg 3.50 Sarah Young / Lilly Baker 3.48 11–11 Chase Decker / Phoebe Lee 9–7 Ryan Satterberg / Madeline Koelbel 3.54 4–4	38%	12–11 (52%)	+3.3
6	Brown University Bears	5	11.27 school +0.38	Guthrie Braun / Emily Mueller 3.83 Blake Behrens / Caroline Keeffe-Jones 3.60 Leyton Borcherding / Helen Horangic 3.44	47%	10–13 (43%)	−0.9
7	Tufts University Jumbos	9	10.38 school +0.30	Wyatt Bischoff / Cindy Wang 3.04 Kurt Stuebe / Sean Beaver 3.44 Ben Mueller / Cody Lamoreux 3.62 7–5 Ben Mueller / Kate Castleberry 3.52 1–5	33%	8–10 (44%)	+2.0
8	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	10	10.19 school +0.21	Sam Bruce / Ellie Pinto 3.81 Julius Heitkoetter / Yitian Zhu 3.14 William Kulas / Samantha Karlson 3.00	29%	5–13 (28%)	−0.2
9	U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	6	10.72 school +0.15	Colman Schofield / Charles Pohl 3.92 Nicholas Reeser / Daniel Neville 3.65 Bradley Whiteway / Sarah Krajewski 2.98	45%	4–7 (36%)	−0.9
10	University of Rhode Island Rams	11	9.69 school −0.13	Christopher Chwalk / Vanessa Reid 2.69 Kerem Erkmen / Abbie Chipps 4.15 2–8 Tyler Nash / Ursula Budd 3.12 3–7 Owen Grainger / Eric Pohl 2.90 0–1 Owen Grainger / Parker Brown 2.66 1–0	24%	3–8 (27%)	+0.3
11	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	8	10.16	Sam Bonauto / Holliss Hirsch 3.42 1–9 Thibault Antonietti / Isabelle Tsuchitori 3.42 0–6 Thomas Hall / Elizabeth Wire 3.57 1–5 Michelangelo Vecchio / Elizabeth Wire 2.89 0–3 Michelangelo Vecchio / Isabelle Tsuchitori 3.03 1–2 Thibault Antonietti / Elizabeth Wire 3.28 0–2 Thomas Hall / Isabelle Tsuchitori 3.71 0–2 Sam Bonauto / Timmy Gee 3.40 0–1	35%	1–10 (9%)	−2.8
12	Boston University Terriers	12	8.19 school +0.22	Peter Stewart / Nicholas Thibodeau 2.48 Elliott Mendenhall / Jack Cariaso 2.77 0–7 Dylan Balunas / Benjamin Luu 2.76 0–7 Dylan Balunas / Jack Cariaso 2.76 0–4 Max Teo / Benjamin Luu 2.56 0–3 Elliott Mendenhall / Benjamin Luu 2.79 0–1	10%	0–11 (0%)	−1.1

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
1	Yale University	12.68	13.51	20–3	17.6	+0.83	1.3	15%
5	Dartmouth College	10.84	11.61	12–11	8.7	+0.77	1.9	8%
7	Tufts University	10.38	11.01	8–10	6.0	+0.63	0.9	19%
10	University of Rhode Island	9.69	9.87	3–8	2.7	+0.19	0.0	53%
2	Harvard University	12.96	13.07	19–4	18.7	+0.11	0.0	56%
8	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	10.19	10.11	5–13	5.2	−0.08	0.0	65%
6	Brown University	11.27	11.05	10–13	10.9	−0.22	0.1	76%
3	Roger Williams University	12.32	12.08	15–8	16.0	−0.24	0.2	78%
4	Boston College	11.79	11.45	12–11	13.5	−0.34	0.4	83%
9	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	10.72	10.26	4–7	4.9	−0.46	0.3	84%
11	Bowdoin College	10.16	7.95	1–10	3.8	−2.22	3.8	>99%
12	Boston University	8.19	5.19	0–11	1.1	≤−3.00	1.7	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Ben Mueller	Tufts University	3.62	4.25	8–10	6.0	+0.63	0.9	19%
Kerem Erkmen	University of Rhode Island	4.15	4.06	2–8	2.1	−0.09	0.0	68%
Carlos De Castro	Roger Williams University	4.33	4.08	15–8	16.0	−0.24	0.2	78%
Bradley Whiteway	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	2.98	2.52	4–7	4.9	−0.46	0.3	84%
Michelangelo Vecchio	Bowdoin College	2.89	1.53	1–5	1.9	−1.37	0.9	97%
Elliott Mendenhall	Boston University	2.77	-0.23	0–8	0.9	≤−3.00	1.4	>99%
Thibault Antonietti	Bowdoin College	3.42	0.42	0–8	2.4	≤−3.00	4.5	>99%
Max Teo	Boston University	2.56	-0.44	0–3	0.2	≤−3.00	0.3	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Harvard University	Dartmouth College	89%
1	2	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	63%
1	3	Roger Williams University	Boston University	98%
1	4	Brown University	Tufts University	72%
1	5	University of Rhode Island	Bowdoin College	35%	upset
1	6	Yale University	Boston College	71%
1	7	Dartmouth College	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	53%
1	8	Harvard University	Boston University	99%
1	9	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Brown University	25%	upset
1	10	Roger Williams University	Bowdoin College	87%
1	11	Yale University	Tufts University	91%
1	12	Boston College	University of Rhode Island	87%
1	13	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Boston University	92%
1	14	Dartmouth College	Brown University	39%	upset
1	15	Harvard University	Bowdoin College	92%
1	16	Yale University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	92%
1	17	Roger Williams University	University of Rhode Island	92%
1	18	Tufts University	Boston College	19%	upset
1	19	Brown University	Boston University	95%
1	20	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bowdoin College	57%
1	21	Yale University	Dartmouth College	86%
1	22	Harvard University	University of Rhode Island	96%
1	23	Tufts University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	56%
1	24	Roger Williams University	Boston College	63%
1	25	Brown University	Bowdoin College	82%
1	26	Yale University	Boston University	99%
1	27	University of Rhode Island	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	29%	upset
1	28	Tufts University	Dartmouth College	40%	upset
1	29	Harvard University	Roger Williams University	65%
1	30	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Boston College	17%	upset
1	31	Yale University	Bowdoin College	95%
1	32	Brown University	University of Rhode Island	81%
1	33	Tufts University	Boston University	90%
1	34	Roger Williams University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	83%
1	35	Dartmouth College	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	66%
1	36	Boston College	Harvard University	24%	upset
1	37	Yale University	University of Rhode Island	94%
1	38	Tufts University	Bowdoin College	65%
1	39	Brown University	Roger Williams University	26%	upset
1	40	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Boston University	87%
1	41	Harvard University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	90%
1	42	Dartmouth College	Boston College	28%	upset
1	43	Tufts University	University of Rhode Island	64%
1	44	Yale University	Roger Williams University	59%
1	45	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Bowdoin College	43%	upset
1	46	Harvard University	Brown University	84%
1	47	Dartmouth College	Boston University	95%
1	48	Boston College	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	74%
1	49	Roger Williams University	Tufts University	87%
1	50	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	University of Rhode Island	64%
1	51	Harvard University	Yale University	57%
1	52	Dartmouth College	Bowdoin College	68%
1	53	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Brown University	37%	upset
1	54	Boston College	Boston University	98%
1	55	Roger Williams University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	89%
1	56	Harvard University	Tufts University	93%
1	57	Dartmouth College	University of Rhode Island	73%
1	58	Yale University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	88%
1	59	Bowdoin College	Boston University	88%
1	60	Boston College	Brown University	63%
1	61	Harvard University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	94%
1	62	Roger Williams University	Dartmouth College	81%
1	63	Tufts University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	42%	upset
1	64	University of Rhode Island	Boston University	52%
1	65	Yale University	Brown University	80%
1	66	Boston College	Bowdoin College	85%
2	67	Dartmouth College	Tufts University	60%
2	68	Roger Williams University	Boston College	63%
2	69	Yale University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	92%
2	70	Harvard University	Brown University	84%
2	71	Roger Williams University	Tufts University	87%
2	72	Yale University	Dartmouth College	86%
2	73	Brown University	Boston College	37%	upset
2	74	Harvard University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	94%
2	75	Yale University	Roger Williams University	59%
2	76	Brown University	Tufts University	72%
2	77	Dartmouth College	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	66%
2	78	Harvard University	Boston College	76%
2	79	Yale University	Brown University	80%
2	80	Roger Williams University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	89%
2	81	Boston College	Tufts University	81%
2	82	Harvard University	Dartmouth College	89%
2	83	Brown University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	75%
2	84	Yale University	Boston College	71%
2	85	Roger Williams University	Dartmouth College	81%
2	86	Harvard University	Tufts University	93%
2	87	Boston College	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	83%
2	88	Brown University	Dartmouth College	61%
2	89	Yale University	Tufts University	91%
2	90	Harvard University	Roger Williams University	65%
2	91	Boston College	Dartmouth College	72%
2	92	Tufts University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	56%
2	93	Roger Williams University	Brown University	74%
2	94	Harvard University	Yale University	57%
3	95	Boston College	Roger Williams University	37%	upset
3	96	Yale University	Brown University	80%
3	97	Harvard University	Dartmouth College	89%
3	98	Yale University	Roger Williams University	59%
3	99	Boston College	Dartmouth College	72%
3	100	Brown University	Harvard University	16%	upset
3	101	Dartmouth College	Yale University	14%	upset
3	102	Roger Williams University	Brown University	74%
3	103	Harvard University	Boston College	76%
3	104	Dartmouth College	Brown University	39%	upset
3	105	Yale University	Boston College	71%
3	106	Roger Williams University	Harvard University	35%	upset
3	107	Boston College	Brown University	63%
3	108	Dartmouth College	Roger Williams University	19%	upset
3	109	Yale University	Harvard University	43%	upset

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Bulldogs	Crimson	Hawks	Eagles	Green	Bears	Jumbos	Engineers	Bears	Rams	Bears	Terriers
Yale University Bulldogs	10–1	✕	L	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Harvard University Crimson	10–1	W	✕	W	L	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Roger Williams University Hawks	8–3	L	L	✕	W	W	L	W	W	W	W	W	W
Boston College Eagles	6–5	L	W	L	✕	L	W	L	L	W	W	W	W
Dartmouth College Big Green	7–4	L	L	L	W	✕	W	L	W	W	W	W	W
Brown University Bears	5–6	L	L	W	L	L	✕	W	L	L	W	W	W
Tufts University Jumbos	7–4	L	L	L	W	W	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	5–6	L	L	L	W	L	W	L	✕	L	W	W	W
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	4–7	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	W	✕	L	W	W
University of Rhode Island Rams	3–8	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	✕	W	W
Bowdoin College Polar Bears	1–10	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W
Boston University Terriers	0–11	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	Bulldogs	Crimson	Hawks	Eagles	Green	Bears	Jumbos	Engineers
Yale University Bulldogs	6–1	✕	L	W	W	W	W	W	W
Harvard University Crimson	7–0	W	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W
Roger Williams University Hawks	5–2	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W
Boston College Eagles	3–4	L	L	L	✕	W	L	W	W
Dartmouth College Big Green	2–5	L	L	L	L	✕	L	W	W
Brown University Bears	4–3	L	L	L	W	W	✕	W	W
Tufts University Jumbos	1–6	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	0–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 3

Team	Rec.	Bulldogs	Crimson	Hawks	Eagles	Green	Bears
Yale University Bulldogs	4–1	✕	W	W	W	L	W
Harvard University Crimson	2–3	L	✕	L	W	W	L
Roger Williams University Hawks	2–3	L	W	✕	L	L	W
Boston College Eagles	3–2	L	L	W	✕	W	W
Dartmouth College Big Green	3–2	W	L	W	L	✕	W
Brown University Bears	1–4	L	W	L	L	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Crimson	1-2-6	def.	Big Green	3-4-5
2	Bears	1-3-5	def.	Engineers	2-4-6
3	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Terriers	3-4-6
4	Bears	1-3-6	def.	Jumbos	2-4-5
5	Rams	1-2-5	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-6
6	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Eagles	3-4-6
7	Big Green	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
8	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Terriers	4-5-6
9	Engineers	1-3-6	def.	Bears	2-4-5
10	Hawks	1-2-6	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-5
11	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	Jumbos	3-4-5
12	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
13	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Terriers	3-5-6
14	Big Green	2-3-5	def.	Bears	1-4-6
15	Crimson	1-2-4	def.	Polar Bears	3-5-6
16	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Engineers	3-4-6
17	Hawks	2-3-4	def.	Rams	1-5-6
18	Jumbos	1-2-6	def.	Eagles	3-4-5
19	Bears	1-3-5	def.	Terriers	2-4-6
20	Bears	1-3-4	def.	Polar Bears	2-5-6
21	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Big Green	4-5-6
22	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
23	Jumbos	1-2-6	def.	Engineers	3-4-5
24	Hawks	1-2-6	def.	Eagles	3-4-5
25	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-6
26	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Terriers	3-4-6
27	Rams	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
28	Jumbos	2-3-4	def.	Big Green	1-5-6
29	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Hawks	4-5-6
30	Engineers	2-3-4	def.	Eagles	1-5-6
31	Bulldogs	2-3-4	def.	Polar Bears	1-5-6
32	Bears	1-4-5	def.	Rams	2-3-6
33	Jumbos	1-2-3	def.	Terriers	4-5-6
34	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
35	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Engineers	3-4-6
36	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Crimson	3-4-6
37	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
38	Jumbos	1-2-6	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-5
39	Bears	1-4-5	def.	Hawks	2-3-6
40	Engineers	1-2-4	def.	Terriers	3-5-6
41	Crimson	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
42	Big Green	1-2-6	def.	Eagles	3-4-5
43	Jumbos	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
44	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Hawks	3-4-6
45	Engineers	2-3-5	def.	Polar Bears	1-4-6
46	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
47	Big Green	1-2-3	def.	Terriers	4-5-6
48	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
49	Hawks	1-2-6	def.	Jumbos	3-4-5
50	Engineers	2-3-4	def.	Rams	1-5-6
51	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Bulldogs	4-5-6
52	Big Green	1-2-4	def.	Polar Bears	3-5-6
53	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
54	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Terriers	4-5-6
55	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Engineers	3-4-6
56	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Jumbos	4-5-6
57	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
58	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
59	Polar Bears	1-2-5	def.	Terriers	3-4-6
60	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
61	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Engineers	4-5-6
62	Hawks	1-2-4	def.	Big Green	3-5-6
63	Jumbos	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
64	Rams	1-2-5	def.	Terriers	3-4-6
65	Bulldogs	2-3-4	def.	Bears	1-5-6
66	Eagles	2-3-5	def.	Polar Bears	1-4-6
67	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
68	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Eagles	4-5-6
69	Bulldogs	2-3-4	def.	Engineers	1-5-6
70	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
71	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
72	Bulldogs	2-3-4	def.	Big Green	1-5-6
73	Bears	2-3-4	def.	Eagles	1-5-6
74	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Engineers	3-4-6
75	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Hawks	3-4-6
76	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Jumbos	3-4-5
77	Big Green	1-2-6	def.	Engineers	3-4-5
78	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Eagles	4-5-6
79	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
80	Hawks	1-3-4	def.	Engineers	2-5-6
81	Eagles	2-3-4	def.	Jumbos	1-5-6
82	Crimson	1-2-4	def.	Big Green	3-5-6
83	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Engineers	4-5-6
84	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Eagles	3-4-6
85	Hawks	2-3-4	def.	Big Green	1-5-6
86	Crimson	1-2-4	def.	Jumbos	3-5-6
87	Eagles	2-3-4	def.	Engineers	1-5-6
88	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Big Green	3-4-5
89	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Jumbos	3-5-6
90	Crimson	1-3-4	def.	Hawks	2-5-6
91	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Big Green	3-4-6
92	Jumbos	1-2-6	def.	Engineers	3-4-5
93	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
94	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-6
95	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Hawks	3-4-6
96	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
97	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Big Green	4-5-6
98	Bulldogs	1-3-5	def.	Hawks	2-4-6
99	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Big Green	4-5-6
100	Bears	2-3-4	def.	Crimson	1-5-6
101	Big Green	1-2-6	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-5
102	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
103	Crimson	2-3-4	def.	Eagles	1-5-6
104	Big Green	1-3-4	def.	Bears	2-5-6
105	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Eagles	4-5-6
106	Hawks	1-2-4	def.	Crimson	3-5-6
107	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
108	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Hawks	3-4-6
109	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Crimson	3-5-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Yale University	Bulldogs	Jack Egan '25 Mia Nicolosi '25 Stephan Baker '26	Elle Sykes '27 Sarah Moeder '26 Ashley Highland '27
Harvard University	Crimson	Justin Callahan '26 Mitchell Callahan '26 Robby Meek '27	Kennedy Leehealey '26 Rosella Irfan '27 Christina Chen '27
Roger Williams University	Hawks	Carlos De Castro '26 Kyle Pfrang '26 Mathieu Dale '25	Jed Lory '27 Carly Kiss '25 Claire Buckley '25 Addyson Fisher '27
Boston College	Eagles	Jack Redmond '26 Michael Kirkman '25 Peter Busch '26	Lanie Ferrarone '28 Caroline Sibilly '26 Sara Schumann '25
Dartmouth College	Big Green	Chase Decker '28 Ryan Satterberg '27 Sarah Young '25 William Michels '25	Phoebe Lee '26 Madeline Koelbel '26 Lilly Baker '27 Reese Bragg '25
Brown University	Bears	Blake Behrens '27 Guthrie Braun '26 Leyton Borcherding '25	Caroline Keeffe-Jones '26 Emily Mueller '25 Helen Horangic '25
Tufts University	Jumbos	Ben Mueller '26 Kurt Stuebe '27 Wyatt Bischoff '27	Cody Lamoreux '27 Kate Castleberry '28 Sean Beaver '27 Cindy Wang '25
Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers	Julius Heitkoetter '25 Sam Bruce '24 William Kulas '28	Yitian Zhu '25 Ellie Pinto '27 Samantha Karlson '25
U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	Bradley Whiteway '26 Colman Schofield '25 Nicholas Reeser '25	Sarah Krajewski '26 Charles Pohl '26 Daniel Neville '25
University of Rhode Island	Rams	Christopher Chwalk '28 Kerem Erkmen '25 Owen Grainger '28 Tyler Nash '26	Vanessa Reid '26 Abbie Chipps '25 Eric Pohl '28 Parker Brown '26 Ursula Budd '27
Bowdoin College	Polar Bears	Michelangelo Vecchio '27 Sam Bonauto '25 Thibault Antonietti '24 Thomas Hall '25	Isabelle Tsuchitori '26 Elizabeth Wire '28 Holliss Hirsch '25 Timmy Gee '25
Boston University	Terriers	Dylan Balunas '28 Elliott Mendenhall '25 Max Teo '28 Peter Stewart '28	Jack Cariaso '25 Benjamin Luu '27 Nicholas Thibodeau '26

Conditions — 04/05/2025 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 80% · Pressure 1027.3 hPa

Temperature

42°F

↑ 44°F ↓ 41°F

Feels like 36°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

7.6 kn

avg · max 10.0 kn

Gusts to 21.2 kn

From ESE (110°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine0.0 hrs Humidity80% Pressure1027.3 hPa Rain0.23 in

What this breeze does at Harvard — from fleet racing

Breeze: E about 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Harvard in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.07)

Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.07 means a rating gap counts about 6% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Harvard by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (59 labelled fleet-race days at Harvard).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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