Boston University '28
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.58 (fleet 3.47) | 105 of 328 | +0.08 ± 0.16 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 28–27 (51%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 | 3 | 19–22 | — |
| Spring 2025 | 3 | 9–5 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 6 graded regattas (55 matches) the record is 28–27 against 23.5 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+4.5). 2 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 3 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 17 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-28 | Jumbo Team Race | skipper | 2.60 | 4.60 | 12–10 | 6.5 | +2.00 | 8.2 | <1% |
| 2026-03-21 | Staake Trophy | skipper | 2.69 | 0.80 | 1–8 | 3.7 | −1.89 | 3.2 | 99% |
| 2026-03-07 | Salve TR Invite | skipper | 2.72 | 1.94 | 6–4 | 7.1 | −0.78 | 0.6 | 92% |
| 2025-04-05 | Fowle Trophy | skipper | 2.56 | -0.44 | 0–3 | 0.2 | ≤−3.00 | 0.3 | >99% |
| 2025-03-22 | 2025 Staake Trophy | skipper | 2.27 | 2.74 | 4–2 | 3.4 | +0.47 | 0.2 | 46% |
| 2025-03-01 | McMerrick | skipper | 1.95 | 4.95 | 5–0 | 2.7 | ≥+3.00 | 4.4 | 4% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2026 Team page Season | |||||
| Sister Esther Whalen Trophy | Skipper | A | 10 | 6.8 | 3.55 |
| Hatch Brown Trophy 2026 | Skipper | A | 8 | 8.2 | 3.75 |
| Harry H. Anderson Jr. Trophy | Skipper | A | 9 | 11.7 | 2.80 |
| Spring 2026 Team page Season | |||||
| Truxtun Umsted | Skipper | A | 14 | 7.4 | 3.83 |
| Staake Trophy | Skipper | TR | 13 | 31% | — |
| Salve TR Invite | Skipper | TR | 10 | 60% | — |
| Owen Trophy | Skipper | A | 8 | 1.6 | 5.30 |
| Open Western National Semis | Skipper | A | 7 | 12.3 | 3.21 |
| NEISA Open FR Champs - Coast Guard Alumni Bowl | Skipper | A | 10 | 9.8 | 3.47 |
| Jumbo Team Race | Skipper | TR | 22 | 54% | — |
| Admiral's Cup | Skipper | A | 12 | 5.6 | 3.38 |
| Fall 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| Sister Ester Trophy | Skipper | A | 4 | 11.0 | 2.09 |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | B | 5 | 5.4 | 3.58 |
| The Hood Trophy | Skipper | A | 4 | 5.5 | 3.88 |
| Danmark Trophy | Skipper | B | 11 | 10.5 | 3.62 |
| 84th Professor Erwin Schell Trophy | Skipper | B | 12 | 11.2 | 2.93 |
| The 34th Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | B | 4 | 9.8 | 2.22 |
| 2025 Nicholas Barnett Trophy | Skipper | A | 8 | 4.1 | 3.23 |
| Spring 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| McMerrick | Skipper | TR | 5 | 100% | — |
| George Morris Trophy | Skipper | A | 8 | 3.2 | 3.93 |
| Fowle Trophy | Skipper | TR | 11 | 0% | — |
| BU Trophy | Skipper | A | 10 | 6.9 | 2.37 |
| 2025 Staake Trophy | Skipper | TR | 15 | 60% | — |
| Fall 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| Reese's Cup | Skipper | B | 3 | 1.3 | 3.27 |
| Nickerson Trophy | Skipper | A | 5 | 7.8 | 2.86 |
| Moody Trophy | Skipper | A | 7 | 15.1 | 0.96 |
| Great Herring Pond Open | Skipper | B | 11 | 2.0 | 2.77 |
| Fall Foliage | Skipper | A | 3 | 1.7 | 3.68 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
