| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Connecticut College | Camels | 11–2 |
| 2 |  |
University of Rhode Island | Rams | 11–2 |
| 3 |  |
Northeastern University | Huskies | 7–6 |
| 4 |  |
Boston University | Terriers | 4–9 |
| 5 |  |
University of Vermont | Catamounts | 3–7 |
| 6 |  |
Maine Maritime Academy | Mariners | 0–10 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 29,369 team race matches sailed before 2026-03-21, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 27 of 36 matches (75%) with a log-loss of 0.418 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.25 ± 0.32: a typical event, more orderly than 70% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Connecticut College | 8.59 | 9.69 | 11–2 | 9.1 | +1.10 | 1.4 | 16% |
| 5 | University of Vermont | 5.67 | 6.61 | 3–7 | 1.6 | +0.95 | 1.0 | 20% |
| 3 | Northeastern University | 7.29 | 8.03 | 7–6 | 5.4 | +0.75 | 0.9 | 21% |
| 2 | University of Rhode Island | 9.35 | 9.42 | 11–2 | 10.9 | +0.08 | 0.0 | 64% |
| 4 | Boston University | 7.74 | 6.91 | 4–9 | 6.2 | −0.83 | 1.3 | 95% |
| 6 | Maine Maritime Academy | 6.08 | 3.08 | 0–10 | 2.8 | ≤−3.00 | 5.3 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | Camels | Rams | Huskies | Terriers | Catamounts | Mariners | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connecticut College Camels | 4–1 | ✕ | W | W | L | W | W |
| University of Rhode Island Rams | 4–1 | L | ✕ | W | W | W | W |
| Northeastern University Huskies | 3–2 | L | L | ✕ | W | W | W |
| Boston University Terriers | 3–2 | W | L | L | ✕ | W | W |
| University of Vermont Catamounts | 1–4 | L | L | L | L | ✕ | W |
| Maine Maritime Academy Mariners | 0–5 | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Camels | Rams | Huskies | Terriers | Catamounts | Mariners | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connecticut College Camels | 4–1 | ✕ | L | W | W | W | W |
| University of Rhode Island Rams | 5–0 | W | ✕ | W | W | W | W |
| Northeastern University Huskies | 3–2 | L | L | ✕ | W | W | W |
| Boston University Terriers | 1–4 | L | L | L | ✕ | L | W |
| University of Vermont Catamounts | 2–3 | L | L | L | W | ✕ | W |
| Maine Maritime Academy Mariners | 0–5 | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Camels | Rams | Huskies | Terriers | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connecticut College Camels | 3–0 | ✕ | W | W | W |
| University of Rhode Island Rams | 2–1 | L | ✕ | W | W |
| Northeastern University Huskies | 1–2 | L | L | ✕ | W |
| Boston University Terriers | 0–3 | L | L | L | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Huskies | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Catamounts | 1-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Terriers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Camels | 3-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Rams | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Mariners | 4-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Camels | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Huskies | 3-4-5 |
| 5 | |
Catamounts | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Mariners | 4-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Rams | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Terriers | 4-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Camels | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Mariners | 4-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Huskies | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Terriers | 3-4-6 |
| 9 | |
Rams | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Catamounts | 4-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Terriers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Mariners | 3-4-6 |
| 11 | |
Camels | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Catamounts | 3-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Rams | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Huskies | 3-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Terriers | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Catamounts | 1-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Huskies | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Mariners | 4-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Camels | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Rams | 3-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Huskies | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Catamounts | 1-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Camels | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Terriers | 3-4-5 |
| 18 | |
Rams | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Mariners | 2-5-6 |
| 19 | |
Camels | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Huskies | 3-5-6 |
| 20 | |
Catamounts | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Mariners | 4-5-6 |
| 21 | |
Rams | 1-2-6 DNF | def. | |
Terriers | 3-4-5 |
| 22 | |
Camels | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Mariners | 3-4-6 |
| 23 | |
Huskies | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Terriers | 1-5-6 |
| 24 | |
Rams | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Catamounts | 3-5-6 |
| 25 | |
Terriers | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Mariners | 2-3-6 |
| 26 | |
Camels | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Catamounts | 3-4-6 |
| 27 | |
Rams | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Huskies | 3-5-6 |
| 28 | |
Catamounts | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Terriers | 3-5-6 |
| 29 | |
Huskies | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Mariners | 1-5-6 |
| 30 | |
Rams | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Camels | 2-5-6 DNF |
| 31 | |
Camels | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Huskies | 1-4-6 |
| 32 | |
Rams | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Terriers | 3-4-5 |
| 33 | |
Camels | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Terriers | 3-5-6 |
| 34 | |
Rams | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Huskies | 3-4-6 |
| 35 | |
Huskies | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Terriers | 1-5-6 |
| 36 | |
Camels | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Rams | 3-4-5 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Connecticut College | Camels | Henry Scholz '27 Skylor Sweet '26 William Hurd '27 |
Vivian Smith '27 Madeline Synnestvedt '27 Charlotte Mcdonald '29 |
|
University of Rhode Island | Rams | Christopher Chwalk '28 Owen Grainger '28 Tyler Nash '26 |
Vanessa Reid '26 Eric Pohl '28 Ursula Budd '27 |
|
Northeastern University | Huskies | Carter Anderson '27 Charles Wilkinson '28 Gavin Hudson '28 Jeremy Bullock '29 |
Ryan Tedeschi '28 James Diamantis '29 Charlie Milward '28 |
|
Boston University | Terriers | Beckett Shinn '29 Buck Rathbun '28 Max Teo '28 Peter Stewart '28 Porter Bell '26 |
Meg Woolverton '27 Tim Nguyen '28 Marguerite Bowen '27 Amanda Wong '29 |
|
University of Vermont | Catamounts | Charlie Walton '29 Cooper Smith '27 Ethan Burt '26 William Denker '27 |
Mira Broussard '29 Marguerite Torres Stickney '27 Ryan Thompson '26 Jack Taylor '27 Rowan Henkes '28 |
|
Maine Maritime Academy | Mariners | Finn Deprez '29 Henri Richardsson '26 Isaac Thompson '28 Toby Clarkson '29 |
Jane Marvin '28 Cathleen Rutter '29 William Ries '26 Isabel Dickson '30 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 5% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
