Northeastern University '28
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.16 (fleet 3.00) | 186 of 331 | −0.02 ± 0.17 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 16–35 (31%) as crew 1–5 (17%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 | 3 | 7–24 | 1–5 |
| Spring 2025 | 3 | 9–11 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 6 graded regattas (56 matches) the record is 17–39 against 18.2 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−1.2). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 3 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 5 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | Staake Trophy | skipper | 2.25 | 3.46 | 7–3 | 5.0 | +1.21 | 1.8 | 11% |
| 2026-03-14 | Southern NE Team Race | crew | 2.34 | 2.72 | 1–5 | 0.7 | +0.38 | 0.1 | 55% |
| 2026-03-07 | The Wood Trophy | skipper | 2.27 | -0.73 | 0–20 | 1.9 | ≤−3.00 | 2.8 | >99% |
| 2025-03-22 | 2025 Staake Trophy | skipper | 2.08 | 1.56 | 3–3 | 3.7 | −0.52 | 0.3 | 86% |
| 2025-03-15 | Ivan Geiger Trophy 2025 | skipper | 2.03 | 1.90 | 3–5 | 3.2 | −0.12 | 0.0 | 70% |
| 2025-03-08 | Camel Team Race | skipper | 1.93 | 1.40 | 3–3 | 3.6 | −0.53 | 0.2 | 86% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2026 Team page Season | |||||
| Sherman Hoyt Trophy | Skipper | B | 10 | 11.3 | 2.71 |
| Hewitt Trophy | Skipper | A | 14 | 6.3 | 3.08 |
| Hatch Brown Trophy 2026 | Skipper | A | 4 | 9.2 | 3.50 |
| Harry H. Anderson Jr. Trophy | Skipper | A | 6 | 11.5 | 2.88 |
| The 35th Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | A | 10 | 10.2 | 3.36 |
| Spring 2026 Team page Season | |||||
| The Wood Trophy | Skipper | TR | 20 | 0% | — |
| Vietor Trophy | Skipper | B | 10 | 5.1 | 3.01 |
| Truxtun Umsted | Skipper | B | 10 | 8.0 | 3.18 |
| Staake Trophy | Skipper | TR | 13 | 54% | — |
| Southern NE Team Race | Crew | TR | 7 | 14% | — |
| Owen Trophy | Skipper | B | 8 | 3.6 | 2.92 |
| Open Eastern National Semis | Skipper | B | 5 | 10.6 | 3.25 |
| NEISA Open FR Champs - Coast Guard Alumni Bowl | Skipper | B | 5 | 14.2 | 2.00 |
| Admiral's Cup | Skipper | B | 14 | 4.9 | 3.44 |
| Fall 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| Sherman Hoyt Trophy | Skipper | B | 5 | 14.6 | 2.06 |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | C | 5 | 7.6 | 2.65 |
| Moody Trophy | Skipper | B | 8 | 12.1 | 1.81 |
| Hewitt Trophy | Skipper | A | 12 | 7.7 | 2.32 |
| Hatch Brown Trophy 2025 | Skipper | C | 3 | 7.3 | 3.64 |
| Harry Anderson Trophy | Skipper | B | 6 | 11.2 | 2.74 |
| The 34th Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | B | 1 | 11.0 | — |
| Spring 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| Vietor Trophy | Skipper | B | 3 | 3.7 | 3.37 |
| Open Eastern Semi Finals | Skipper | B | 2 | 15.5 | 1.51 |
| Ivan Geiger Trophy 2025 | Skipper | TR | 14 | 57% | — |
| George Morris Trophy | Skipper | B | 6 | 6.2 | 1.94 |
| Camel Team Race | Skipper | TR | 8 | 50% | — |
| Admiral’s Cup | Skipper | B | 6 | 7.2 | 3.12 |
| 2025 Staake Trophy | Skipper | TR | 15 | 53% | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
