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2025 Staake Trophy

# SchoolTeam Rec.
1 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 15–0
2 Boston University Boston University Terriers 9–6
3 Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 8–7
4 University of Vermont University of Vermont Catamounts 7–8
5 Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 6–9
6 Massachusetts Maritime Academy Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 0–15

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 26,169 team race matches sailed before 2025-03-22, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 39 of 45 matches (87%) with a log-loss of 0.311 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.20 ± 0.29: a typical event, more orderly than 66% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

PlaceSchool Pred. Strength Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) Pred. win % Recordvs forecast
1Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Engineers		110.04
school +0.15, home +0.36		Sam Bruce / Ellie Pinto 3.72 9–0
Julius Heitkoetter / Ade Larsen 2.83 9–0
William Kulas / Lucas Escandon 2.90 9–0
Julius Heitkoetter / Yitian Zhu 3.08 6–0
William Kulas / Samantha Karlson 2.90 6–0
Sam Bruce / Ryan Hoffman 3.60 6–0		92%15–0 (100%)+1.3
2Boston University
Terriers		37.76
school +0.15		Dylan Balunas / Tiare Sierra 2.66
Elliott Mendenhall / Rufus Burnes Heath 2.59 5–4
Peter Stewart / Nicholas Thibodeau 2.40 5–4
Elliott Mendenhall / Joy Kim 2.47 4–2
Max Teo / Ada Ucar 2.27 4–2		57%9–6 (60%)+0.5
3Northeastern University
Huskies		28.31
school +0.30		Adrian Winkelman / Emma Cole 2.83
Joshua Dillon / Lila Coffman 2.63 7–2
Gavin Hudson / Tyler Meadows 2.89 5–4
Charles Wilkinson / Jake Carlson 2.08 3–3
Joshua Dillon / Jake Carlson 2.54 0–3
Joshua Dillon / Tyler Meadows 2.54 1–2		67%8–7 (53%)−2.1
4University of Vermont
Catamounts		46.93
school −0.28		Calvin Lamosse / Will Broseman 2.50
Ethan Burt / Jack Taylor 2.39
Christian Cushman / Alex Boni 2.28 7–5
Christian Cushman / Alice Thompson 2.35 0–3		45%7–8 (47%)+0.3
5Connecticut College
Camels		56.96
school +0.30		Izzy Wu-Karr / Aurora Kreyche 1.90 6–6
William Hurd / Alejandro Amezcua 2.33 2–7
Liam Gronda / Vivian Smith 1.87 2–7
Skylor Sweet / Clifton Carragher 2.65 4–5
William Hurd / Liam Gronda 2.44 4–2		38%6–9 (40%)+0.3
6Massachusetts Maritime Academy
Buccaneers		63.81
school +0.37		Zach Earnshaw / Mallory Dietsch 1.25
Evan Tofolo / Hermann Elger 0.87
Max Reshetiloff / Luke Dubois		2%0–15 (0%)−0.3

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

PlaceSchoolStrength Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
1Massachusetts Institute of Technology10.0413.0415–013.7≥+3.001.925%
2Boston University7.767.969–68.5+0.200.150%
5Connecticut College6.967.136–95.7+0.180.053%
4University of Vermont6.937.057–86.7+0.120.056%
3Northeastern University8.317.388–710.1−0.931.496%
6Massachusetts Maritime Academy3.810.810–150.3≤−3.000.4>99%

By skipper

SkipperSchoolValue Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
Max TeoBoston University2.272.744–23.4+0.470.246%
Elliott MendenhallBoston University2.592.799–68.5+0.200.150%
William HurdConnecticut College2.332.506–95.7+0.180.053%
Charles WilkinsonNortheastern University2.081.563–33.7−0.520.386%
Adrian WinkelmanNortheastern University2.831.908–710.1−0.931.496%
Joshua DillonNortheastern University2.631.708–710.1−0.931.496%
Zach EarnshawMassachusetts Maritime Academy1.25-1.750–150.3≤−3.000.4>99%
Max ReshetiloffMassachusetts Maritime Academy1.07-1.930–150.3≤−3.000.4>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd#WinnerLoser P(winner)
11Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Maritime Academy100%
12Northeastern UniversityConnecticut College90%
15Boston UniversityUniversity of Vermont66%
16Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyConnecticut College96%
19University of VermontMassachusetts Maritime Academy96%
110Northeastern UniversityBoston University55%
113Connecticut CollegeUniversity of Vermont38%upset
114Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyNortheastern University78%
117Boston UniversityMassachusetts Maritime Academy98%
118University of VermontNortheastern University30%upset
121Connecticut CollegeMassachusetts Maritime Academy97%
122Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyBoston University88%
125Northeastern UniversityMassachusetts Maritime Academy99%
126Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyUniversity of Vermont95%
129Boston UniversityConnecticut College62%
23Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Maritime Academy100%
24Northeastern UniversityConnecticut College90%
27Boston UniversityUniversity of Vermont67%
28Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyConnecticut College96%
211University of VermontMassachusetts Maritime Academy96%
212Northeastern UniversityBoston University55%
215University of VermontConnecticut College61%
216Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyNortheastern University78%
219Boston UniversityMassachusetts Maritime Academy98%
220University of VermontNortheastern University30%upset
223Connecticut CollegeMassachusetts Maritime Academy97%
224Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyBoston University89%
227Northeastern UniversityMassachusetts Maritime Academy99%
228Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyUniversity of Vermont95%
230Connecticut CollegeBoston University38%upset
331Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Maritime Academy100%
332Connecticut CollegeNortheastern University10%upset
333Boston UniversityUniversity of Vermont68%
334Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyConnecticut College95%
335University of VermontMassachusetts Maritime Academy95%
336Boston UniversityNortheastern University46%upset
337University of VermontConnecticut College60%
338Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyNortheastern University79%
339Boston UniversityMassachusetts Maritime Academy98%
340Northeastern UniversityUniversity of Vermont70%
341Connecticut CollegeMassachusetts Maritime Academy97%
342Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyBoston University89%
343Northeastern UniversityMassachusetts Maritime Academy99%
344Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyUniversity of Vermont95%
345Boston UniversityConnecticut College61%

Round 1

TeamRec.EngineersTerriersHuskiesCatamountsCamelsBuccaneers
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers5–0✕WWWWW
Boston University Terriers3–2L✕LWWW
Northeastern University Huskies3–2LW✕LWW
University of Vermont Catamounts2–3LLW✕LW
Connecticut College Camels2–3LLLW✕W
Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers0–5LLLLL✕

Round 2

TeamRec.EngineersTerriersHuskiesCatamountsCamelsBuccaneers
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers5–0✕WWWWW
Boston University Terriers2–3L✕LWLW
Northeastern University Huskies3–2LW✕LWW
University of Vermont Catamounts3–2LLW✕WW
Connecticut College Camels2–3LWLL✕W
Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers0–5LLLLL✕

Round 3

TeamRec.EngineersTerriersHuskiesCatamountsCamelsBuccaneers
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers5–0✕WWWWW
Boston University Terriers4–1L✕WWWW
Northeastern University Huskies2–3LL✕WLW
University of Vermont Catamounts2–3LLL✕WW
Connecticut College Camels2–3LLWL✕W
Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers0–5LLLLL✕
# Winner Loser Pos.
1 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1-2-3 def. Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 4-5-6
2 Northeastern University Huskies 1-2-6 def. Connecticut College Camels 3-4-5
5 Boston University Terriers 2-3-4 def. University of Vermont Catamounts 1-5-6
6 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1-3-5 def. Connecticut College Camels 2-4-6
9 University of Vermont Catamounts 1-2-4 def. Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 3-5-6
10 Northeastern University Huskies 1-3-6 def. Boston University Terriers 2-4-5
13 Connecticut College Camels 1-3-6 def. University of Vermont Catamounts 2-4-5
14 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1-2-5 def. Northeastern University Huskies 3-4-6
17 Boston University Terriers 1-2-5 def. Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 3-4-6
18 University of Vermont Catamounts 1-3-6 def. Northeastern University Huskies 2-4-5
21 Connecticut College Camels 1-2-4 def. Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 3-5-6
22 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1-2-3 def. Boston University Terriers 4-5-6
25 Northeastern University Huskies 1-2-3 def. Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 4-5-6
26 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1-2-3 def. University of Vermont Catamounts 4-5-6
29 Boston University Terriers 2-3-4 def. Connecticut College Camels 1-5-6
3 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1-2-3 def. Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 4-5-6
4 Northeastern University Huskies 1-2-5 def. Connecticut College Camels 3-4-6
7 Boston University Terriers 2-3-4 def. University of Vermont Catamounts 1-5-6
8 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1-2-3 def. Connecticut College Camels 4-5-6
11 University of Vermont Catamounts 1-2-3 def. Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 4-5-6
12 Northeastern University Huskies 1-2-5 def. Boston University Terriers 3-4-6 DNF
15 University of Vermont Catamounts 1-2-6 def. Connecticut College Camels 3-4-5
16 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1-2-4 def. Northeastern University Huskies 3-5-6
19 Boston University Terriers 1-2-4 def. Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 3-5-6
20 University of Vermont Catamounts 1-2-5 def. Northeastern University Huskies 3-4-6
23 Connecticut College Camels 1-2-3 def. Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 4-5-6
24 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 2-3-4 def. Boston University Terriers 1-5-6
27 Northeastern University Huskies 1-2-3 def. Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 4-5-6
28 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 2-3-4 def. University of Vermont Catamounts 1-5-6
30 Connecticut College Camels 1-2-4 def. Boston University Terriers 3-5-6
31 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1-2-3 def. Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 4-5-6
32 Connecticut College Camels 1-3-4 def. Northeastern University Huskies 2-5-6
33 Boston University Terriers 1-3-5 def. University of Vermont Catamounts 2-4-6
34 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1-2-5 def. Connecticut College Camels 3-4-6
35 University of Vermont Catamounts 1-2-5 def. Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 3-4-6
36 Boston University Terriers 1-2-6 def. Northeastern University Huskies 3-4-5
37 University of Vermont Catamounts 2-3-5 def. Connecticut College Camels 1-4-6
38 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1-2-5 def. Northeastern University Huskies 3-4-6
39 Boston University Terriers 1-2-5 def. Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 3-4-6
40 Northeastern University Huskies 1-2-5 def. University of Vermont Catamounts 3-4-6
41 Connecticut College Camels 1-2-3 def. Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 4-5-6
42 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1-2-4 def. Boston University Terriers 3-5-6
43 Northeastern University Huskies 1-3-4 def. Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 2-5-6
44 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1-2-5 def. University of Vermont Catamounts 3-4-6
45 Boston University Terriers 1-4-5 def. Connecticut College Camels 2-3-6

Conditions — 03/22/2025 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 40%  ·  Pressure 1003.9 hPa

Temperature

52°F
↑ 59°F   ↓ 36°F
Feels like 44°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
8.9 kn
avg  ·  max 11.9 kn
Gusts to 27.4 kn
From SW (224°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover73% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity40% Pressure1003.9 hPa

What this breeze does at MIT — from fleet racing

Breeze: SW about 11 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at MIT in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.05)
Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 4% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at MIT by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (112 labelled fleet-race days at MIT).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →