Boston University '28
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.21 (fleet 2.97) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.06 ± 0.17 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 16–36 (31%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2025 | 4 | 16–36 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 4 graded regattas (52 matches) the record is 16–36 against 13.4 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+2.6). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 7 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-05 | Fowle Trophy | skipper | 2.76 | -0.24 | 0–11 | 1.1 | ≤−3.00 | 1.7 | >99% |
| 2025-03-29 | 2025 Marchiando Trophy-Grey Regatta | skipper | 2.71 | 3.31 | 2–19 | 1.2 | +0.60 | 0.4 | 32% |
| 2025-03-22 | 2025 Staake Trophy | skipper | 2.66 | 2.86 | 9–6 | 8.5 | +0.20 | 0.1 | 50% |
| 2025-03-01 | McMerrick | skipper | 2.44 | 5.44 | 5–0 | 2.7 | ≥+3.00 | 4.4 | 4% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| Truxtun Umsted | Skipper | A | 14 | 10.6 | 2.84 |
| McMerrick | Skipper | TR | 5 | 100% | — |
| Fowle Trophy | Skipper | TR | 11 | 0% | — |
| 2025 Staake Trophy | Skipper | TR | 15 | 60% | — |
| 2025 Marchiando Trophy-Grey Regatta | Skipper | TR | 21 | 10% | — |
| Fall 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| Sister Esther Trophy | Skipper | A | 14 | 5.9 | 3.21 |
| Penobscot Bay Open | Skipper | A | 5 | 5.8 | 1.21 |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | A | 8 | 10.4 | 2.91 |
| Nickerson Trophy | Skipper | A | 6 | 5.8 | 3.02 |
| The Hatch Brown Trophy 2024 | Skipper | B | 4 | 14.2 | 2.00 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Dylan Balunas |  St. George's School |
'24 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
