2025 Marchiando Trophy-Grey Regatta

HostMIT
Date03/29/2025
TypeCross Regional
Boat420/FJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Harvard University	Crimson	20–1
2	Yale University	Bulldogs	16–5
3	Brown University	Bears	11–10
4	U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	10–11
5	Dartmouth College	Big Green	10–11
6	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers	9–12
7	College of Charleston	Cougars	6–15
8	Boston University	Terriers	2–19

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 26,645 team race matches sailed before 2025-03-29, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 62 of 84 matches (74%) with a log-loss of 0.484 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness +0.13 ± 0.23: a typical event, more orderly than 57% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Harvard University Crimson	1	12.24 school +0.25	Justin Callahan / Kennedy Leehealey 4.39 Mitchell Callahan / Rosella Irfan 3.83 Robby Meek / Christina Chen 3.74	82%	20–1 (95%)	+2.8
2	Yale University Bulldogs	3	11.30 school +0.31	Stephan Baker / Ashley Highland 4.10 Alex Adams / Annabel Woodworth 2.82 Jack Egan / Elle Sykes 4.03 9–3 Jack Egan / Nathan Sih 4.06 7–2	62%	16–5 (76%)	+2.9
3	Brown University Bears	4	11.13 school +0.39	Guthrie Braun / Emily Mueller 3.81 Leyton Borcherding / Helen Horangic 3.42 Blake Behrens / Caroline Keeffe-Jones 3.55 10–8 Cam Spriggs / Brianna Ross 3.27 1–2	58%	11–10 (52%)	−1.3
4	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	2	11.28 school +0.22	Nathan Smith / Ellie Alex 3.87 Jack Welburn / Darby Graham 3.62 Henry Allgeier / Fiona Cullen 3.62 8–10 Tanner Kelly / Fiona Cullen 3.08 2–1	63%	10–11 (48%)	−3.2
5	Dartmouth College Big Green	5	10.68 school +0.29	William Michels / Reese Bragg 3.45 Ryan Satterberg / Madeline Koelbel 3.48 Sarah Young / Lilly Baker 3.44	46%	10–11 (48%)	+0.2
6	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	7	10.30 school +0.21, home +0.36	Sam Bruce / Ellie Pinto 3.74 Julius Heitkoetter / Yitian Zhu 3.09 7–8 William Kulas / Samantha Karlson 2.93 7–8 Julius Heitkoetter / Samantha Karlson 2.95 2–4 William Kulas / Ryan Hoffman 2.92 2–4	39%	9–12 (43%)	+0.9
7	College of Charleston Cougars	6	10.32 school +0.36	Noah Zittrer / Lucy Elvart 3.56 Axel Stordahl / Lucy Zinn 2.96 6–12 Jonnie Ciffolillo / Aidan Iaconis 3.19 3–9 Benjamin Dufour / Addison Pohl 3.53 3–6 Benjamin Dufour / Lucy Zinn 3.52 0–3	43%	6–15 (29%)	−3.1
8	Boston University Terriers	8	7.99 school +0.20	Elliott Mendenhall / Jack Cariaso 2.69 Dylan Balunas / Tiare Sierra 2.71 Peter Stewart / Nicholas Thibodeau 2.41 1–11 Peter Stewart / Camila Gutierrez Diaz 2.22 1–8	6%	2–19 (10%)	+0.8

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
1	Harvard University	12.24	13.76	20–1	17.2	+1.53	2.5	8%
2	Yale University	11.30	12.08	16–5	13.1	+0.78	1.6	12%
8	Boston University	7.99	8.59	2–19	1.2	+0.60	0.4	32%
6	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	10.30	10.52	9–12	8.1	+0.22	0.1	42%
5	Dartmouth College	10.68	10.73	10–11	9.8	+0.06	0.0	55%
3	Brown University	11.13	10.83	11–10	12.3	−0.30	0.3	81%
4	U. S. Naval Academy	11.28	10.52	10–11	13.2	−0.75	1.7	96%
7	College of Charleston	10.32	9.48	6–15	9.1	−0.85	1.8	97%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Alex Adams	Yale University	2.82	3.60	16–5	13.1	+0.78	1.6	12%
Elliott Mendenhall	Boston University	2.69	3.29	2–19	1.2	+0.60	0.4	32%
Tanner Kelly	U. S. Naval Academy	3.08	3.06	2–1	2.0	−0.02	0.0	75%
Axel Stordahl	College of Charleston	2.96	2.44	6–12	7.6	−0.53	0.6	88%
Benjamin Dufour	College of Charleston	3.53	2.70	3–9	5.1	−0.83	1.2	95%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Harvard University	Dartmouth College	82%
1	2	College of Charleston	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	53%
1	3	U. S. Naval Academy	Boston University	97%
1	7	Yale University	Brown University	53%
1	8	Dartmouth College	College of Charleston	51%
1	9	Harvard University	Boston University	99%
1	13	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Yale University	24%	upset
1	14	Brown University	U. S. Naval Academy	46%	upset
1	15	Boston University	College of Charleston	10%	upset
1	19	Yale University	Dartmouth College	66%
1	20	Harvard University	U. S. Naval Academy	71%
1	21	Brown University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	73%
1	25	Yale University	Boston University	96%
1	26	College of Charleston	U. S. Naval Academy	33%	upset
1	27	Dartmouth College	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	58%
1	31	Brown University	Harvard University	26%	upset
1	32	Yale University	U. S. Naval Academy	48%	upset
1	33	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Boston University	91%
1	37	Harvard University	College of Charleston	89%
1	38	Dartmouth College	Brown University	38%	upset
1	39	U. S. Naval Academy	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	73%
1	43	Harvard University	Yale University	72%
1	44	Dartmouth College	Boston University	93%
1	45	College of Charleston	Brown University	39%	upset
1	49	Harvard University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	87%
1	50	U. S. Naval Academy	Dartmouth College	66%
1	51	Yale University	College of Charleston	70%
1	55	Brown University	Boston University	96%
2	4	Harvard University	Dartmouth College	82%
2	5	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	College of Charleston	47%	upset
2	6	U. S. Naval Academy	Boston University	97%
2	10	Yale University	Brown University	53%
2	11	Dartmouth College	College of Charleston	51%
2	12	Harvard University	Boston University	99%
2	16	Yale University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	76%
2	17	Brown University	U. S. Naval Academy	46%	upset
2	18	College of Charleston	Boston University	90%
2	22	Yale University	Dartmouth College	66%
2	23	Harvard University	U. S. Naval Academy	71%
2	24	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Brown University	27%	upset
2	28	Yale University	Boston University	96%
2	29	U. S. Naval Academy	College of Charleston	67%
2	30	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Dartmouth College	42%	upset
2	34	Harvard University	Brown University	74%
2	35	Yale University	U. S. Naval Academy	48%	upset
2	36	Boston University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	9%	upset
2	40	Harvard University	College of Charleston	89%
2	41	Dartmouth College	Brown University	38%	upset
2	42	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	U. S. Naval Academy	27%	upset
2	46	Harvard University	Yale University	72%
2	47	Dartmouth College	Boston University	93%
2	48	College of Charleston	Brown University	39%	upset
2	52	Harvard University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	87%
2	53	U. S. Naval Academy	Dartmouth College	66%
2	54	Yale University	College of Charleston	70%
2	56	Brown University	Boston University	96%
3	57	Harvard University	Dartmouth College	83%
3	58	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	College of Charleston	47%	upset
3	59	U. S. Naval Academy	Boston University	97%
3	60	Yale University	Brown University	54%
3	61	Dartmouth College	College of Charleston	51%
3	62	Harvard University	Boston University	99%
3	63	Yale University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	76%
3	64	Brown University	U. S. Naval Academy	45%	upset
3	65	College of Charleston	Boston University	89%
3	66	Dartmouth College	Yale University	34%	upset
3	67	Harvard University	U. S. Naval Academy	71%
3	68	Brown University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	73%
3	69	Yale University	Boston University	96%
3	70	U. S. Naval Academy	College of Charleston	67%
3	71	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Dartmouth College	42%	upset
3	72	Harvard University	Brown University	75%
3	73	Yale University	U. S. Naval Academy	48%	upset
3	74	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Boston University	91%
3	75	Harvard University	College of Charleston	90%
3	76	Brown University	Dartmouth College	62%
3	77	U. S. Naval Academy	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	73%
3	78	Harvard University	Yale University	72%
3	79	Dartmouth College	Boston University	93%
3	80	Brown University	College of Charleston	61%
3	81	Harvard University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	87%
3	82	U. S. Naval Academy	Dartmouth College	66%
3	83	Yale University	College of Charleston	70%
3	84	Brown University	Boston University	96%

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Crimson	Bulldogs	Bears	Midshipmen	Green	Engineers	Cougars	Terriers
Harvard University Crimson	6–1	✕	W	L	W	W	W	W	W
Yale University Bulldogs	5–2	L	✕	W	W	W	L	W	W
Brown University Bears	4–3	W	L	✕	W	L	W	L	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	3–4	L	L	L	✕	W	W	L	W
Dartmouth College Big Green	4–3	L	L	W	L	✕	W	W	W
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	2–5	L	W	L	L	L	✕	L	W
College of Charleston Cougars	3–4	L	L	W	W	L	W	✕	L
Boston University Terriers	1–6	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	Crimson	Bulldogs	Bears	Midshipmen	Green	Engineers	Cougars	Terriers
Harvard University Crimson	7–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Yale University Bulldogs	6–1	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W
Brown University Bears	2–5	L	L	✕	W	L	L	L	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	3–4	L	L	L	✕	W	L	W	W
Dartmouth College Big Green	3–4	L	L	W	L	✕	L	W	W
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	4–3	L	L	W	W	W	✕	W	L
College of Charleston Cougars	2–5	L	L	W	L	L	L	✕	W
Boston University Terriers	1–6	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	✕

Round 3

Team	Rec.	Crimson	Bulldogs	Bears	Midshipmen	Green	Engineers	Cougars	Terriers
Harvard University Crimson	7–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Yale University Bulldogs	5–2	L	✕	W	W	L	W	W	W
Brown University Bears	5–2	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	4–3	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W
Dartmouth College Big Green	3–4	L	W	L	L	✕	L	W	W
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	3–4	L	L	L	L	W	✕	W	W
College of Charleston Cougars	1–6	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W
Boston University Terriers	0–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Big Green	3-4-6
2	Cougars	1-2-4	def.	Engineers	3-5-6
3	Midshipmen	1-2-4	def.	Terriers	3-5-6
7	Bulldogs	2-3-5	def.	Bears	1-4-6
8	Big Green	1-3-5	def.	Cougars	2-4-6
9	Crimson	1-2-4	def.	Terriers	3-5-6
13	Engineers	2-3-4	def.	Bulldogs	1-5-6
14	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-5
15	Terriers	2-3-4	def.	Cougars	1-5-6
19	Bulldogs	2-3-4	def.	Big Green	1-5-6
20	Crimson	1-3-6	def.	Midshipmen	2-4-5
21	Bears	2-3-4	def.	Engineers	1-5-6
25	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Terriers	4-5-6
26	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
27	Big Green	2-3-4	def.	Engineers	1-5-6
31	Bears	2-3-5	def.	Crimson	1-4-6
32	Bulldogs	2-3-5	def.	Midshipmen	1-4-6
33	Engineers	2-3-4	def.	Terriers	1-5-6
37	Crimson	2-3-5	def.	Cougars	1-4-6
38	Big Green	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
39	Midshipmen	2-3-5	def.	Engineers	1-4-6
43	Crimson	1-2-4	def.	Bulldogs	3-5-6
44	Big Green	1-2-3	def.	Terriers	4-5-6
45	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
49	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Engineers	3-4-6
50	Midshipmen	1-3-6	def.	Big Green	2-4-5
51	Bulldogs	2-3-4	def.	Cougars	1-5-6
55	Bears	1-3-4	def.	Terriers	2-5-6
4	Crimson	1-3-4	def.	Big Green	2-5-6
5	Engineers	1-2-5	def.	Cougars	3-4-6
6	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Terriers	3-4-6
10	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
11	Big Green	1-4-5	def.	Cougars	2-3-6
12	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Terriers	4-5-6
16	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Engineers	3-5-6
17	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Midshipmen	3-5-6
18	Cougars	1-3-5	def.	Terriers	2-4-6
22	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	Big Green	3-4-5
23	Crimson	2-3-4	def.	Midshipmen	1-5-6
24	Engineers	2-3-4	def.	Bears	1-5-6
28	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	Terriers	3-4-5
29	Midshipmen	1-2-4	def.	Cougars	3-5-6
30	Engineers	2-3-4	def.	Big Green	1-5-6
34	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
35	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Midshipmen	4-5-6
36	Terriers	2-3-4	def.	Engineers	1-5-6
40	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Cougars	3-4-6
41	Big Green	2-3-5	def.	Bears	1-4-6
42	Engineers	1-3-4	def.	Midshipmen	2-5-6
46	Crimson	1-2-4	def.	Bulldogs	3-5-6
47	Big Green	2-3-4	def.	Terriers	1-5-6
48	Cougars	1-4-5	def.	Bears	2-3-6
52	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Engineers	3-4-6
53	Midshipmen	1-2-3	def.	Big Green	4-5-6
54	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Cougars	3-5-6
56	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Terriers	4-5-6
57	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Big Green	3-4-6
58	Engineers	1-2-5	def.	Cougars	3-4-6
59	Midshipmen	1-2-4	def.	Terriers	3-5-6
60	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
61	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Cougars	3-4-6
62	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Terriers	4-5-6
63	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Engineers	4-5-6
64	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
65	Cougars	1-3-5	def.	Terriers	2-4-6
66	Big Green	1-3-5	def.	Bulldogs	2-4-6
67	Crimson	2-3-4	def.	Midshipmen	1-5-6
68	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Engineers	3-4-5
69	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Terriers	3-4-6
70	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Cougars	3-4-6
71	Engineers	1-2-3	def.	Big Green	4-5-6
72	Crimson	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
73	Bulldogs	2-3-5	def.	Midshipmen	1-4-6
74	Engineers	1-2-5	def.	Terriers	3-4-6
75	Crimson	1-3-4	def.	Cougars	2-5-6
76	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Big Green	4-5-6
77	Midshipmen	2-3-4	def.	Engineers	1-5-6
78	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-6
79	Big Green	1-2-4	def.	Terriers	3-5-6
80	Bears	1-3-6	def.	Cougars	2-4-5
81	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Engineers	3-4-6
82	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Big Green	3-4-6
83	Bulldogs	1-3-6	def.	Cougars	2-4-5
84	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Terriers	3-4-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Harvard University	Crimson	Justin Callahan '26 Mitchell Callahan '26 Robby Meek '27	Kennedy Leehealey '26 Rosella Irfan '27 Christina Chen '27
Yale University	Bulldogs	Alex Adams '26 Jack Egan '25 Stephan Baker '26	Annabel Woodworth '28 Nathan Sih '25 Elle Sykes '27 Ashley Highland '27
Brown University	Bears	Blake Behrens '27 Cam Spriggs '27 Guthrie Braun '26 Leyton Borcherding '25	Caroline Keeffe-Jones '26 Brianna Ross '26 Emily Mueller '25 Helen Horangic '25
U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	Henry Allgeier '27 Jack Welburn '26 Nathan Smith '26 Tanner Kelly '25	Fiona Cullen '27 Darby Graham '26 Ellie Alex '26
Dartmouth College	Big Green	Ryan Satterberg '27 Sarah Young '25 William Michels '25	Madeline Koelbel '26 Lilly Baker '27 Reese Bragg '25
Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers	Julius Heitkoetter '25 Sam Bruce '24 William Kulas '28	Yitian Zhu '25 Samantha Karlson '25 Ellie Pinto '27 Ryan Hoffman '28
College of Charleston	Cougars	Axel Stordahl '24 Benjamin Dufour '26 Jonnie Ciffolillo '27 Noah Zittrer '26	Lucy Zinn '28 Addison Pohl '27 Aidan Iaconis '26 Lucy Elvart '28
Boston University	Terriers	Dylan Balunas '28 Elliott Mendenhall '25 Peter Stewart '28	Tiare Sierra '25 Jack Cariaso '25 Nicholas Thibodeau '26 Camila Gutierrez Diaz '28

Conditions — 03/29/2025 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 80% · Pressure 1018.7 hPa

Temperature

38°F

↑ 40°F ↓ 36°F

Feels like 30°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

9.2 kn

avg · max 10.3 kn

Gusts to 24.7 kn

From NE (55°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine1.3 hrs Humidity80% Pressure1018.7 hPa Rain0.04 in

What this breeze does at MIT — from fleet racing

Breeze: NE about 11 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at MIT in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.04)

Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 4% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at MIT by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (112 labelled fleet-race days at MIT).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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