| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Boston College | Eagles | 12–2 |
| 2 |  |
Tufts University | Jumbos | 12–2 |
| 3 |  |
Bowdoin College | Polar Bears | 9–5 |
| 4 |  |
Northeastern University | Huskies | 8–6 |
| 5 |  |
Boston University | Terriers | 5–9 |
| 6 |  |
U. S. Coast Guard Academy | Bears | 4–10 |
| 7 |  |
Massachusetts Institute of Technology | Engineers | 3–11 |
| 7 |  |
University of Rhode Island | Rams | 3–11 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 25,847 team race matches sailed before 2025-03-15, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 42 of 56 matches (75%) with a log-loss of 0.541 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness +0.61 ± 0.37: an orderly event, more orderly than 97% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tufts University | 8.26 | 9.73 | 12–2 | 8.5 | +1.47 | 3.3 | 4% |
| 3 | Bowdoin College | 7.80 | 8.47 | 9–5 | 6.9 | +0.67 | 1.0 | 19% |
| 1 | Boston College | 8.94 | 9.50 | 12–2 | 10.9 | +0.55 | 0.4 | 36% |
| 4 | Northeastern University | 8.04 | 8.17 | 8–6 | 7.6 | +0.14 | 0.0 | 52% |
| 7 | Massachusetts Institute of Technology | 6.97 | 6.70 | 3–11 | 3.7 | −0.27 | 0.1 | 75% |
| 5 | Boston University | 7.73 | 7.24 | 5–9 | 6.6 | −0.49 | 0.5 | 87% |
| 6 | U. S. Coast Guard Academy | 7.60 | 7.01 | 4–10 | 5.7 | −0.59 | 0.7 | 90% |
| 7 | University of Rhode Island | 7.74 | 6.58 | 3–11 | 6.2 | −1.16 | 2.5 | 99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrien Bellanger | Tufts University | 2.53 | 3.86 | 10–2 | 7.1 | +1.33 | 2.5 | 7% |
| Michelangelo Vecchio | Bowdoin College | 2.57 | 3.24 | 9–5 | 6.9 | +0.67 | 1.0 | 19% |
| Joshua Dillon | Northeastern University | 2.51 | 3.06 | 8–4 | 6.7 | +0.56 | 0.5 | 30% |
| Alex Lech | Boston College | 2.67 | 3.22 | 12–2 | 10.9 | +0.55 | 0.4 | 36% |
| Adrian Winkelman | Northeastern University | 2.79 | 2.93 | 8–6 | 7.6 | +0.14 | 0.0 | 52% |
| Charles Wilkinson | Northeastern University | 2.03 | 1.90 | 3–5 | 3.2 | −0.12 | 0.0 | 70% |
| Max Katz-Christy | Massachusetts Institute of Technology | 2.40 | 2.14 | 3–11 | 3.7 | −0.27 | 0.1 | 75% |
| Elliott Mendenhall | Boston University | 2.65 | 2.16 | 5–9 | 6.6 | −0.49 | 0.5 | 87% |
| Tiare Sierra | Boston University | 2.44 | 1.95 | 5–9 | 6.6 | −0.49 | 0.5 | 87% |
| Peter Mcgonagle | U. S. Coast Guard Academy | 2.41 | 1.82 | 4–10 | 5.7 | −0.59 | 0.7 | 90% |
| Luke Zylinski | U. S. Coast Guard Academy | 2.80 | 2.21 | 4–10 | 5.7 | −0.59 | 0.7 | 90% |
| Adam Strobridge | University of Rhode Island | 2.37 | 1.21 | 3–11 | 6.2 | −1.16 | 2.5 | 99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | Eagles | Jumbos | Bears | Huskies | Terriers | Bears | Engineers | Rams | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston College Eagles | 6–1 | ✕ | W | L | W | W | W | W | W |
| Tufts University Jumbos | 6–1 | L | ✕ | W | W | W | W | W | W |
| Bowdoin College Polar Bears | 6–1 | W | L | ✕ | W | W | W | W | W |
| Northeastern University Huskies | 4–3 | L | L | L | ✕ | W | W | W | W |
| Boston University Terriers | 2–5 | L | L | L | L | ✕ | W | L | W |
| U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears | 1–6 | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ | W | L |
| Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers | 1–6 | L | L | L | L | W | L | ✕ | L |
| University of Rhode Island Rams | 2–5 | L | L | L | L | L | W | W | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Eagles | Jumbos | Bears | Huskies | Terriers | Bears | Engineers | Rams | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston College Eagles | 6–1 | ✕ | W | W | W | L | W | W | W |
| Tufts University Jumbos | 6–1 | L | ✕ | W | W | W | W | W | W |
| Bowdoin College Polar Bears | 3–4 | L | L | ✕ | L | W | W | W | L |
| Northeastern University Huskies | 4–3 | L | L | W | ✕ | W | L | W | W |
| Boston University Terriers | 3–4 | W | L | L | L | ✕ | L | W | W |
| U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears | 3–4 | L | L | L | W | W | ✕ | L | W |
| Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers | 2–5 | L | L | L | L | L | W | ✕ | W |
| University of Rhode Island Rams | 1–6 | L | L | W | L | L | L | L | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Bears | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Engineers | 1-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Huskies | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Terriers | 2-3-6 |
| 3 | |
Jumbos | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Polar Bears | 3-4-6 |
| 7 | |
Eagles | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Rams | 4-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Terriers | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Bears | 2-3-6 |
| 9 | |
Polar Bears | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Engineers | 3-4-6 |
| 13 | |
Huskies | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Rams | 3-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Eagles | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Jumbos | 3-4-5 |
| 15 | |
Polar Bears | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Terriers | 2-4-5 |
| 19 | |
Rams | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bears | 3-4-6 |
| 20 | |
Jumbos | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Engineers | 3-5-6 |
| 21 | |
Eagles | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Huskies | 3-4-6 |
| 25 | |
Polar Bears | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Rams | 3-5-6 |
| 26 | |
Jumbos | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Terriers | 3-5-6 |
| 27 | |
Huskies | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Bears | 2-4-6 |
| 31 | |
Eagles | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Engineers | 4-5-6 |
| 32 | |
Jumbos | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Rams | 3-4-6 |
| 33 | |
Polar Bears | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Huskies | 3-5-6 |
| 37 | |
Engineers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Terriers | 3-4-6 |
| 38 | |
Eagles | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bears | 3-4-6 |
| 39 | |
Jumbos | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Huskies | 3-4-5 |
| 43 | |
Rams | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Engineers | 1-5-6 |
| 44 | |
Polar Bears | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bears | 4-5-6 |
| 45 | |
Eagles | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Terriers | 3-4-5 |
| 49 | |
Huskies | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Engineers | 1-4-6 |
| 50 | |
Jumbos | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Bears | 1-4-6 |
| 51 | |
Terriers | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Rams | 2-5-6 |
| 55 | |
Polar Bears | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Eagles | 3-4-5 |
| 4 | |
Engineers | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Bears | 1-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Huskies | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Terriers | 3-4-6 |
| 6 | |
Jumbos | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Polar Bears | 2-4-5 |
| 10 | |
Eagles | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Rams | 3-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Bears | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Terriers | 2-4-6 |
| 12 | |
Polar Bears | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Engineers | 3-4-5 |
| 16 | |
Huskies | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Rams | 3-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Eagles | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Jumbos | 3-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Polar Bears | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Terriers | 3-4-6 |
| 22 | |
Bears | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Rams | 3-4-5 |
| 23 | |
Jumbos | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Engineers | 3-4-6 |
| 24 | |
Eagles | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Huskies | 4-5-6 |
| 28 | |
Rams | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Polar Bears | 2-4-6 |
| 29 | |
Jumbos | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Terriers | 3-5-6 |
| 30 | |
Bears | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Huskies | 3-4-6 |
| 34 | |
Eagles | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Engineers | 4-5-6 |
| 35 | |
Jumbos | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Rams | 2-4-6 |
| 36 | |
Huskies | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Polar Bears | 3-4-6 |
| 40 | |
Terriers | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Engineers | 2-4-6 |
| 41 | |
Eagles | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bears | 3-4-5 |
| 42 | |
Jumbos | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Huskies | 3-4-6 |
| 46 | |
Engineers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Rams | 3-4-5 |
| 47 | |
Polar Bears | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bears | 3-4-6 |
| 48 | |
Terriers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Eagles | 4-5-6 |
| 52 | |
Huskies | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Engineers | 3-4-5 |
| 53 | |
Jumbos | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bears | 3-5-6 |
| 54 | |
Terriers | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Rams | 2-4-6 |
| 56 | |
Eagles | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Polar Bears | 2-3-6 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 4% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
