| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Brown University | Bears | 10–0 |
| 2 |  |
University of Rhode Island | Rams | 6–4 |
| 3 |  |
Boston University | Terriers | 6–4 |
| 4 |  |
Maine Maritime Academy | Mariners | 2–8 |
| 5 |  |
Salve Regina University | Seahawks | 3–4 |
| 6 |  |
University of New Hampshire | Wildcats | 2–5 |
| 7 |  |
Babson College | Beaver | 0–0 |
| 8 |  |
Williams College | Ephs | 0–7 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 28,606 team race matches sailed before 2026-03-07, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 33 of 34 matches (97%) with a log-loss of 0.218 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.52 ± 0.34: an orderly event, more orderly than 94% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brown University | 8.09 | 11.09 | 10–0 | 7.8 | ≥+3.00 | 3.7 | 6% |
| 6 | University of New Hampshire | 2.77 | 4.04 | 2–5 | 1.1 | +1.27 | 0.8 | 31% |
| 2 | University of Rhode Island | 7.97 | 8.27 | 8–2 | 7.6 | +0.29 | 0.1 | 55% |
| 5 | Salve Regina University | 4.69 | 4.83 | 3–4 | 2.9 | +0.14 | 0.0 | 82% |
| 7 | Babson College | 2.92 | 2.50 | 1–6 | 1.3 | −0.42 | 0.1 | 83% |
| 3 | Boston University | 7.35 | 6.60 | 6–4 | 7.1 | −0.75 | 0.6 | 91% |
| 4 | Maine Maritime Academy | 6.59 | 5.41 | 4–6 | 5.1 | −1.18 | 0.9 | 96% |
| 8 | Williams College | 2.62 | -0.38 | 0–7 | 1.0 | ≤−3.00 | 1.8 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | Bears | Rams | Terriers | Mariners | Seahawks | Wildcats | Beaver | Ephs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brown University Bears | 7–0 | ✕ | W | W | W | W | W | W | W |
| University of Rhode Island Rams | 6–1 | L | ✕ | W | W | W | W | W | W |
| Boston University Terriers | 5–2 | L | L | ✕ | W | W | W | W | W |
| Maine Maritime Academy Mariners | 4–3 | L | L | L | ✕ | W | W | W | W |
| Salve Regina University Seahawks | 3–4 | L | L | L | L | ✕ | W | W | W |
| University of New Hampshire Wildcats | 2–5 | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ | W | W |
| Babson College Beaver | 1–6 | L | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ | W |
| Williams College Ephs | 0–7 | L | L | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Bears | Rams | Terriers | Mariners | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brown University Bears | 3–0 | ✕ | W | W | W |
| University of Rhode Island Rams | 2–1 | L | ✕ | W | W |
| Boston University Terriers | 1–2 | L | L | ✕ | W |
| Maine Maritime Academy Mariners | 0–3 | L | L | L | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Beaver | 3-4-5 |
| 2 | |
Terriers | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Mariners | 1-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Wildcats | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Ephs | 2-4-6 |
| 4 | |
Bears | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Rams | 1-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Terriers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Beaver | 4-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Ephs | 3-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Bears | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Mariners | 4-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Rams | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Wildcats | 4-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Terriers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Ephs | 4-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Bears | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Beaver | 4-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Wildcats | 3-4-6 |
| 12 | |
Rams | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Mariners | 3-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Bears | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Ephs | 4-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Terriers | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Wildcats | 2-4-6 |
| 15 | |
Mariners | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Beaver | 3-4-6 |
| 16 | |
Rams | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Seahawks | 3-4-6 |
| 17 | |
Bears | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Wildcats | 3-4-5 |
| 18 | |
Mariners | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Ephs | 3-5-6 |
| 19 | |
Terriers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Seahawks | 3-4-5 |
| 20 | |
Rams | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Beaver | 3-5-6 |
| 21 | |
Mariners | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Wildcats | 4-5-6 |
| 22 | |
Bears | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Seahawks | 3-4-6 |
| 23 | |
Beaver | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Ephs | 3-4-6 |
| 24 | |
Rams | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Terriers | 4-5-6 |
| 25 | |
Mariners | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Seahawks | 3-4-5 |
| 26 | |
Wildcats | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Beaver | 3-5-6 |
| 27 | |
Bears | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Terriers | 4-5-6 |
| 28 | |
Rams | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Ephs | 4-5-6 |
| 29 | |
Rams | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Terriers | 3-4-6 |
| 30 | |
Bears | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Mariners | 3-4-5 |
| 31 | |
Rams | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Mariners | 3-4-6 |
| 32 | |
Bears | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Terriers | 2-4-5 |
| 33 | |
Terriers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Mariners | 3-4-6 |
| 34 | |
Bears | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Rams | 3-4-5 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 5% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
