Jumbo Team Race

HostTufts
Date03/28/2026
TypeFundamental
BoatFJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Roger Williams University	Hawks	19–3
2	Tufts University	Jumbos	15–7
3	Brown University	Bears	13–9
4	Boston University	Terriers	12–10
5	Bowdoin College	Polar Bears	9–10
6	Dartmouth College	Big Green	7–12
7	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers	2–12
8	Bentley University	Falcons	0–14

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 29,944 team race matches sailed before 2026-03-28, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 63 of 77 matches (82%) with a log-loss of 0.503 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.63 ± 0.22: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 7% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Roger Williams University Hawks	1	10.28 school +0.49	Parker Moore / Peter Cotoia 3.36 Bo Angus / Didier Schouten 3.39 Reece Schwartz / Maggie Fleming 2.95	87%	19–3 (86%)	−0.2
2	Tufts University Jumbos	2	9.60 school +0.41, home +0.36	Oliver Keeves / Lilah Parker 3.08 Courtland Doyle / Patricia Winssinger 2.86 Gus Macaulay / Margaret Klein 2.86	77%	15–7 (68%)	−2.0
3	Brown University Bears	3	9.39 school +0.30	James Brock / Marin Soderberg 3.70 Leila Pfrang / Kyoko Tonkin 2.50 Julian Dahiya / Elena Sun 2.83	74%	13–9 (59%)	−3.3
4	Boston University Terriers	7	6.57	Max Teo / Meg Woolverton 2.58 Buck Rathbun / Saanvi Gupta 1.89 Beckett Shinn / Nola Lai 1.99	29%	12–10 (55%)	+5.6
5	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	4	6.77	Cole Amaral / Caroline O'Hara 2.23 Ryan Keenan / Eve Cintron Noah Reischmann / Yasmine Nee 1.92 7–7 Owen Warren / Yasmine Nee 1.51 2–3	37%	9–10 (47%)	+2.0
6	Dartmouth College Big Green	5	6.62 school +0.40	Will Eggena / Lucia Duffy 1.53 Ben Sheppard / Vivian Heitkoetter 2.65 Bradley Kirkpatrick / Kathryn Mcgranahan 1.98 5–12 Harry Bryan / Abbie Deng 2.09 2–0	34%	7–12 (37%)	+0.6
7	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	6	6.09 school +0.17	Conrad Straden / Ada Kilian 2.35 Lucas Escandon / Alice Colby 1.86 Kaitlyn Beaver / Ade Larsen 1.63	32%	2–12 (14%)	−2.5
8	Bentley University Falcons	8	2.35 school +0.11	John O'Connell / Maren Daly 1.07 Wilfred Hynes / Olivia Colantuonio 1.02 Alejandro Cestero / Walker Ryon 0.08	1%	0–14 (0%)	−0.1

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
4	Boston University	6.57	8.60	12–10	6.4	+2.03	8.4	<1%
5	Bowdoin College	6.77	7.60	9–10	7.0	+0.84	1.2	17%
6	Dartmouth College	6.62	6.86	7–12	6.4	+0.24	0.1	47%
1	Roger Williams University	10.28	10.18	19–3	19.2	−0.10	0.0	70%
2	Tufts University	9.60	8.82	15–7	17.0	−0.78	1.1	94%
3	Brown University	9.39	8.05	13–9	16.3	−1.34	3.2	99%
7	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	6.09	3.77	2–12	4.5	−2.32	3.6	>99%
8	Bentley University	2.35	-0.65	0–14	0.1	≤−3.00	0.2	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Max Teo	Boston University	2.58	4.61	12–10	6.4	+2.03	8.4	<1%
Buck Rathbun	Boston University	1.89	3.92	12–10	6.4	+2.03	8.4	<1%
Beckett Shinn	Boston University	1.99	4.02	12–10	6.4	+2.03	8.4	<1%
Owen Warren	Bowdoin College	1.51	2.60	2–3	1.3	+1.09	0.6	39%
Cole Amaral	Bowdoin College	2.23	3.07	9–10	7.0	+0.84	1.2	17%
Ryan Keenan	Bowdoin College	2.49	3.33	9–10	7.0	+0.84	1.2	17%
Noah Reischmann	Bowdoin College	1.92	2.66	7–7	5.7	+0.74	0.7	28%
Will Eggena	Dartmouth College	1.53	1.77	7–12	6.4	+0.24	0.1	47%
Ben Sheppard	Dartmouth College	2.65	2.90	7–12	6.4	+0.24	0.1	47%
Bradley Kirkpatrick	Dartmouth College	1.98	2.21	5–12	4.4	+0.23	0.1	48%
Parker Moore	Roger Williams University	3.36	3.27	19–3	19.2	−0.10	0.0	70%
Bo Angus	Roger Williams University	3.39	3.30	19–3	19.2	−0.10	0.0	70%
Reece Schwartz	Roger Williams University	2.95	2.85	19–3	19.2	−0.10	0.0	70%
Oliver Keeves	Tufts University	3.08	2.30	15–7	17.0	−0.78	1.1	94%
Courtland Doyle	Tufts University	2.86	2.08	15–7	17.0	−0.78	1.1	94%
Gus Macaulay	Tufts University	2.86	2.08	15–7	17.0	−0.78	1.1	94%
James Brock	Brown University	3.70	2.37	13–9	16.3	−1.34	3.2	99%
Leila Pfrang	Brown University	2.50	1.16	13–9	16.3	−1.34	3.2	99%
Julian Dahiya	Brown University	2.83	1.50	13–9	16.3	−1.34	3.2	99%
Conrad Straden	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	2.35	0.03	2–12	4.5	−2.32	3.6	>99%
Lucas Escandon	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	1.86	-0.46	2–12	4.5	−2.32	3.6	>99%
Kaitlyn Beaver	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	1.63	-0.69	2–12	4.5	−2.32	3.6	>99%
John O'Connell	Bentley University	1.07	-1.93	0–14	0.1	≤−3.00	0.2	>99%
Wilfred Hynes	Bentley University	1.02	-1.98	0–14	0.1	≤−3.00	0.2	>99%
Alejandro Cestero	Bentley University	0.08	-2.92	0–14	0.1	≤−3.00	0.2	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Brown University	Dartmouth College	94%
1	2	Bowdoin College	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	56%
1	3	Roger Williams University	Boston University	98%
1	7	Tufts University	Bentley University	100%
1	8	Brown University	Bowdoin College	95%
1	9	Boston University	Dartmouth College	48%	upset
1	13	Tufts University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	97%
1	14	Roger Williams University	Bentley University	100%
1	15	Bowdoin College	Boston University	57%
1	19	Tufts University	Brown University	56%
1	20	Roger Williams University	Dartmouth College	97%
1	21	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Bentley University	98%
1	25	Tufts University	Boston University	95%
1	26	Roger Williams University	Bowdoin College	97%
1	27	Brown University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	96%
1	31	Dartmouth College	Bentley University	99%
1	32	Tufts University	Roger Williams University	34%	upset
1	33	Boston University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	61%
1	37	Bowdoin College	Dartmouth College	57%
1	38	Brown University	Bentley University	100%
1	39	Roger Williams University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	98%
1	43	Tufts University	Dartmouth College	95%
1	44	Brown University	Boston University	94%
1	45	Bowdoin College	Bentley University	99%
1	49	Dartmouth College	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	62%
1	50	Roger Williams University	Brown University	71%
1	51	Tufts University	Bowdoin College	94%
1	55	Boston University	Bentley University	98%
2	4	Brown University	Dartmouth College	94%
2	5	Bowdoin College	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	57%
2	6	Boston University	Roger Williams University	2%	upset
2	10	Tufts University	Bentley University	100%
2	11	Brown University	Bowdoin College	95%
2	12	Boston University	Dartmouth College	49%	upset
2	16	Tufts University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	97%
2	17	Roger Williams University	Bentley University	100%
2	18	Bowdoin College	Boston University	57%
2	22	Tufts University	Brown University	56%
2	23	Roger Williams University	Dartmouth College	97%
2	24	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Bentley University	98%
2	28	Tufts University	Boston University	95%
2	29	Roger Williams University	Bowdoin College	97%
2	30	Brown University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	96%
2	34	Dartmouth College	Bentley University	99%
2	35	Roger Williams University	Tufts University	66%
2	36	Boston University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	61%
2	40	Dartmouth College	Bowdoin College	43%	upset
2	41	Brown University	Bentley University	100%
2	42	Roger Williams University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	98%
2	46	Dartmouth College	Tufts University	5%	upset
2	47	Boston University	Brown University	6%	upset
2	48	Bowdoin College	Bentley University	99%
2	52	Dartmouth College	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	62%
2	53	Brown University	Roger Williams University	29%	upset
2	54	Tufts University	Bowdoin College	94%
2	56	Boston University	Bentley University	98%
3	57	Boston University	Brown University	6%	upset
3	58	Roger Williams University	Bowdoin College	97%
3	59	Tufts University	Dartmouth College	95%
3	60	Roger Williams University	Brown University	71%
3	61	Boston University	Dartmouth College	49%	upset
3	62	Tufts University	Bowdoin College	93%
3	63	Roger Williams University	Dartmouth College	98%
3	64	Brown University	Bowdoin College	94%
3	65	Boston University	Tufts University	5%	upset
3	66	Bowdoin College	Dartmouth College	58%
3	67	Roger Williams University	Boston University	98%
3	68	Tufts University	Brown University	55%
3	69	Bowdoin College	Boston University	59%
3	70	Dartmouth College	Brown University	6%	upset
3	71	Roger Williams University	Tufts University	67%
4	72	Brown University	Tufts University	45%	upset
4	73	Roger Williams University	Boston University	98%
4	74	Boston University	Tufts University	5%	upset
4	75	Roger Williams University	Brown University	71%
4	76	Brown University	Boston University	94%
4	77	Roger Williams University	Tufts University	67%

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Hawks	Jumbos	Bears	Terriers	Bears	Green	Engineers	Falcons
Roger Williams University Hawks	6–1	✕	L	W	W	W	W	W	W
Tufts University Jumbos	7–0	W	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W
Brown University Bears	5–2	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W
Boston University Terriers	3–4	L	L	L	✕	L	W	W	W
Bowdoin College Polar Bears	4–3	L	L	L	W	✕	W	W	W
Dartmouth College Big Green	2–5	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	1–6	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W
Bentley University Falcons	0–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	Hawks	Jumbos	Bears	Terriers	Bears	Green	Engineers	Falcons
Roger Williams University Hawks	5–2	✕	W	L	L	W	W	W	W
Tufts University Jumbos	5–2	L	✕	W	W	W	L	W	W
Brown University Bears	5–2	W	L	✕	L	W	W	W	W
Boston University Terriers	5–2	W	L	W	✕	L	W	W	W
Bowdoin College Polar Bears	3–4	L	L	L	W	✕	L	W	W
Dartmouth College Big Green	4–3	L	W	L	L	W	✕	W	W
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	1–6	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W
Bentley University Falcons	0–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 3

Team	Rec.	Hawks	Jumbos	Bears	Terriers	Bears	Green
Roger Williams University Hawks	5–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W
Tufts University Jumbos	3–2	L	✕	W	L	W	W
Brown University Bears	1–4	L	L	✕	L	W	L
Boston University Terriers	3–2	L	W	W	✕	L	W
Bowdoin College Polar Bears	2–3	L	L	L	W	✕	W
Dartmouth College Big Green	1–4	L	L	W	L	L	✕

Round 4

Team	Rec.	Hawks	Jumbos	Bears	Terriers
Roger Williams University Hawks	3–0	✕	W	W	W
Tufts University Jumbos	0–3	L	✕	L	L
Brown University Bears	2–1	L	W	✕	W
Boston University Terriers	1–2	L	W	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Big Green	4-5-6
2	Polar Bears	1-3-4	def.	Engineers	2-5-6
3	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Terriers	4-5-6
7	Jumbos	1-2-3	def.	Falcons	4-5-6
8	Bears	1-3-4	def.	Polar Bears	2-5-6
9	Terriers	1-2-6	def.	Big Green	3-4-5
13	Jumbos	1-2-4	def.	Engineers	3-5-6
14	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Falcons	4-5-6
15	Polar Bears	1-2-6	def.	Terriers	3-4-5
19	Jumbos	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
20	Hawks	1-2-6	def.	Big Green	3-4-5
21	Engineers	1-2-3	def.	Falcons	4-5-6
25	Jumbos	1-2-5	def.	Terriers	3-4-6
26	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Polar Bears	4-5-6
27	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Engineers	3-4-6
31	Big Green	1-2-4	def.	Falcons	3-5-6
32	Jumbos	1-2-6	def.	Hawks	3-4-5
33	Terriers	1-2-6	def.	Engineers	3-4-5
37	Polar Bears	1-3-4	def.	Big Green	2-5-6
38	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Falcons	4-5-6
39	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Engineers	4-5-6
43	Jumbos	1-2-4	def.	Big Green	3-5-6
44	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Terriers	3-4-5
45	Polar Bears	1-2-3	def.	Falcons	4-5-6
49	Big Green	1-3-4	def.	Engineers	2-5-6
50	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
51	Jumbos	1-2-4	def.	Polar Bears	3-5-6
55	Terriers	1-2-3	def.	Falcons	4-5-6
4	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Big Green	3-4-6
5	Polar Bears	1-2-4	def.	Engineers	3-5-6
6	Terriers	1-3-6	def.	Hawks	2-4-5
10	Jumbos	1-2-4	def.	Falcons	3-5-6
11	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Polar Bears	4-5-6
12	Terriers	1-2-3	def.	Big Green	4-5-6
16	Jumbos	1-2-6	def.	Engineers	3-4-5
17	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Falcons	4-5-6
18	Polar Bears	1-3-5	def.	Terriers	2-4-6
22	Jumbos	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
23	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Big Green	3-4-6
24	Engineers	1-2-3	def.	Falcons	4-5-6
28	Jumbos	1-2-5	def.	Terriers	3-4-6
29	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-6
30	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Engineers	3-4-6
34	Big Green	1-2-3	def.	Falcons	4-5-6
35	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
36	Terriers	1-2-5	def.	Engineers	3-4-6
40	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-6
41	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Falcons	4-5-6
42	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Engineers	3-4-6
46	Big Green	1-2-6	def.	Jumbos	3-4-5
47	Terriers	2-3-5	def.	Bears	1-4-6
48	Polar Bears	1-2-3	def.	Falcons	4-5-6
52	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Engineers	3-4-6
53	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Hawks	4-5-6
54	Jumbos	1-2-5	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-6
56	Terriers	1-2-4	def.	Falcons	3-5-6
57	Terriers	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
58	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Polar Bears	4-5-6
59	Jumbos	1-2-5	def.	Big Green	3-4-6
60	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
61	Terriers	1-2-6	def.	Big Green	3-4-5
62	Jumbos	1-2-4	def.	Polar Bears	3-5-6
63	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Big Green	4-5-6
64	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-5
65	Terriers	1-2-6	def.	Jumbos	3-4-5
66	Polar Bears	1-2-5	def.	Big Green	3-4-6
67	Hawks	1-2-4	def.	Terriers	3-5-6
68	Jumbos	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
69	Polar Bears	2-3-4	def.	Terriers	1-5-6
70	Big Green	2-3-4	def.	Bears	1-5-6
71	Hawks	1-3-5	def.	Jumbos	2-4-6
72	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
73	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Terriers	3-4-6
74	Terriers	1-4-5	def.	Jumbos	2-3-6
75	Hawks	1-3-6	def.	Bears	2-4-5
76	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Terriers	3-4-5
77	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Roger Williams University	Hawks	Bo Angus '29 Parker Moore '29 Reece Schwartz '29	Didier Schouten '29 Peter Cotoia '26 Maggie Fleming '27
Tufts University	Jumbos	Courtland Doyle '27 Gus Macaulay '27 Oliver Keeves '28	Patricia Winssinger '28 Margaret Klein '26 Lilah Parker '26
Brown University	Bears	James Brock '28 Julian Dahiya '28 Leila Pfrang '29	Marin Soderberg '28 Elena Sun '29 Kyoko Tonkin '29
Boston University	Terriers	Beckett Shinn '29 Buck Rathbun '28 Max Teo '28	Nola Lai '29 Saanvi Gupta '29 Meg Woolverton '27
Bowdoin College	Polar Bears	Cole Amaral '28 Noah Reischmann '29 Owen Warren '28 Ryan Keenan '29	Caroline O'Hara '29 Yasmine Nee '29 Eve Cintron '29
Dartmouth College	Big Green	Ben Sheppard '27 Bradley Kirkpatrick '29 Harry Bryan '29 Will Eggena '27	Vivian Heitkoetter '27 Kathryn Mcgranahan '29 Abbie Deng '29 Lucia Duffy '29
Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers	Conrad Straden '28 Kaitlyn Beaver '29 Lucas Escandon '26	Ada Kilian '29 Ade Larsen '27 Alice Colby '29
Bentley University	Falcons	Alejandro Cestero '28 John O'Connell '28 Wilfred Hynes '26	Walker Ryon '29 Maren Daly '29 Olivia Colantuonio '28

Conditions — 03/28/2026 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 38% · Pressure 1028.3 hPa

Temperature

34°F

↑ 37°F ↓ 26°F

Feels like 25°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

6.0 kn

avg · max 8.7 kn

Gusts to 21.2 kn

From NNW (328°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover44% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity38% Pressure1028.3 hPa Snow0.06 in

What this breeze does at Tufts — from fleet racing

Breeze: NW about 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Tufts in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.07)

Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.07 means a rating gap counts about 6% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Tufts by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (60 labelled fleet-race days at Tufts).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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