Bowdoin College '29
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.49 (fleet 3.27) | 128 of 331 | +0.12 ± 0.17 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 20–27 (43%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 | 3 | 20–27 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (47 matches) the record is 20–27 against 14.0 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+6.0). 2 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 7 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-11 | Thompson Trophy | skipper | 2.82 | 4.59 | 7–7 | 2.6 | +1.77 | 5.9 | <1% |
| 2026-04-04 | Mystic Lake Team Race | skipper | 2.83 | 2.62 | 4–10 | 4.6 | −0.21 | 0.1 | 73% |
| 2026-03-28 | Jumbo Team Race | skipper | 2.48 | 3.38 | 9–10 | 6.8 | +0.90 | 1.4 | 14% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2026 Team page Season | |||||
| Sherman Hoyt Trophy | Skipper | B | 10 | 9.7 | 3.20 |
| Open Atlantic Coast Championship | Skipper | B | 2 | 17.0 | 0.51 |
| Moody Trophy | Skipper | B | 12 | 6.1 | 3.22 |
| Hatch Brown Trophy 2026 | Skipper | B | 8 | 8.1 | 3.42 |
| Harry H. Anderson Jr. Trophy | Skipper | B | 8 | 9.6 | 2.98 |
| Spring 2026 Team page Season | |||||
| Thompson Trophy | Skipper | TR | 15 | 47% | — |
| Open Fleet Race National Championships | Skipper | A | 2 | 18.0 | — |
| Mystic Lake Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 29% | — |
| Jumbo Team Race | Skipper | TR | 19 | 47% | — |
| Boston Dinghy Challenge Cup-2026 | Skipper | A | 10 | 5.7 | 3.69 |
| Fall 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| Savin Hill Invite | Skipper | A | 4 | 5.2 | 3.60 |
| Open Atlantic Coast Championship Finals | Skipper | A | 2 | 12.5 | 3.55 |
| Nickerson Trophy | Skipper | A | 14 | 7.9 | 2.85 |
| Moody Trophy | Skipper | B | 7 | 5.3 | 3.28 |
| Harvard Invitational | Skipper | A | 4 | 7.0 | 2.42 |
| Eagle Invite | Skipper | C | 10 | 6.2 | 1.80 |
| 2025 Nicholas Barnett Trophy | Skipper | B | 8 | 3.0 | 3.35 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Ryan Keenan |  Palmer Trinity School |
'24 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
