Mystic Lake Team Race

HostTufts
Date04/04/2026
TypeFundamental
BoatFJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Roger Williams University	Hawks	13–1
2	Tufts University	Jumbos	9–5
2	University of Rhode Island	Rams	9–5
4	Brown University	Bears	7–7
4	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	7–7
6	Bowdoin College	Polar Bears	4–10
7	Dartmouth College	Big Green	4–10
8	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers	3–11

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 30,349 team race matches sailed before 2026-04-04, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 39 of 56 matches (70%) with a log-loss of 0.567 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness +0.00 ± 0.30: a typical event, more orderly than 42% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Roger Williams University Hawks	1	9.69 school +0.47	Connor Mchugh / Maddy Martin 3.00 11–1 Bo Angus / Dominik Moncur 3.40 10–0 Jack Roman / Sophia Litos 2.92 7–1 Reece Schwartz / Sophia Litos 2.96 6–0 Reece Schwartz / Dominik Moncur 2.94 3–1 Jack Roman / Maddy Martin 2.86 2–0	84%	13–1 (93%)	+1.2
2	Tufts University Jumbos	2	8.81 school +0.38, home +0.34	Devon Owen / Patricia Winssinger 2.90 Kiana Beachy / Harrison Vose 2.41 Crue Ziskind / Thomas Mazzeo 2.74	70%	9–5 (64%)	−0.7
2	University of Rhode Island Rams	5	7.89	Olin Guck / Olivia Dutra 2.43 Max Sigel / Erin Little 2.85 Zachary Severson / Harper Kelley	47%	9–5 (64%)	+2.4
4	Brown University Bears	3	8.14 school +0.27	William Baker / Talia Levine 2.58 Leila Pfrang / Phoebe Hackett 2.45 Julian Dahiya / Marin Soderberg 2.83	54%	7–7 (50%)	−0.5
4	U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	6	7.65 school +0.09	Joey Richardson / Will Bryant 2.31 Tomas Riccio / Austin White 2.43 Richard Pokorny / Gavin Vanmanen 2.77	41%	7–7 (50%)	+1.3
6	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	7	7.31	Ryan Keenan / Eve Cintron 2.84 Henry Ladd / Ava Tobias 2.26 Noah Reischmann / Yasmine Nee 2.05 4–6 Cole Amaral / Caroline O'Hara 2.36 0–4	32%	4–10 (29%)	−0.4
7	Dartmouth College Big Green	8	6.83 school +0.42	Will Eggena / Finn Cairns 1.51 Bradley Kirkpatrick / Lucia Duffy 2.09 Turner Ryon / Sophie Menyhart 2.77	22%	4–10 (29%)	+0.9
8	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	4	8.11 school +0.14	Emma Wang / Layla Bursor 2.44 Karya Basaraner / Sophia Woodbury 2.74 Brooke Barry / Christine Keedy Brown 2.82 3–7 Brooke Barry / Alice Colby 2.66 0–4	52%	3–11 (21%)	−4.2

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
1	Roger Williams University	9.69	10.65	13–1	11.7	+0.97	0.8	30%
2	University of Rhode Island	7.89	8.74	9–5	6.6	+0.85	1.5	13%
4	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	7.65	8.09	7–7	5.7	+0.44	0.4	32%
7	Dartmouth College	6.83	7.20	4–10	3.1	+0.37	0.2	38%
6	Bowdoin College	7.31	7.15	4–10	4.4	−0.16	0.0	70%
4	Brown University	8.14	7.98	7–7	7.5	−0.16	0.1	72%
2	Tufts University	8.81	8.55	9–5	9.7	−0.26	0.1	78%
8	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	8.11	6.52	3–11	7.2	−1.59	4.6	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Bo Angus	Roger Williams University	3.40	6.40	10–0	8.9	≥+3.00	1.6	32%
Connor Mchugh	Roger Williams University	3.00	3.86	11–1	10.0	+0.85	0.6	36%
Olin Guck	University of Rhode Island	2.43	3.28	9–5	6.6	+0.85	1.5	13%
Max Sigel	University of Rhode Island	2.85	3.70	9–5	6.6	+0.85	1.5	13%
Zachary Severson	University of Rhode Island	2.56	3.41	9–5	6.6	+0.85	1.5	13%
Jack Roman	Roger Williams University	2.92	3.68	9–1	8.1	+0.76	0.4	41%
Reece Schwartz	Roger Williams University	2.96	3.70	9–1	8.2	+0.74	0.4	42%
Joey Richardson	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	2.31	2.75	7–7	5.7	+0.44	0.4	32%
Tomas Riccio	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	2.43	2.87	7–7	5.7	+0.44	0.4	32%
Richard Pokorny	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	2.77	3.21	7–7	5.7	+0.44	0.4	32%
Will Eggena	Dartmouth College	1.51	1.88	4–10	3.1	+0.37	0.2	38%
Bradley Kirkpatrick	Dartmouth College	2.09	2.46	4–10	3.1	+0.37	0.2	38%
Turner Ryon	Dartmouth College	2.77	3.14	4–10	3.1	+0.37	0.2	38%
Noah Reischmann	Bowdoin College	2.05	2.14	4–6	3.8	+0.09	0.0	57%
Ryan Keenan	Bowdoin College	2.84	2.68	4–10	4.4	−0.16	0.0	70%
Henry Ladd	Bowdoin College	2.26	2.10	4–10	4.4	−0.16	0.0	70%
William Baker	Brown University	2.58	2.42	7–7	7.5	−0.16	0.1	72%
Leila Pfrang	Brown University	2.45	2.29	7–7	7.5	−0.16	0.1	72%
Julian Dahiya	Brown University	2.83	2.67	7–7	7.5	−0.16	0.1	72%
Devon Owen	Tufts University	2.90	2.64	9–5	9.7	−0.26	0.1	78%
Kiana Beachy	Tufts University	2.41	2.15	9–5	9.7	−0.26	0.1	78%
Crue Ziskind	Tufts University	2.74	2.47	9–5	9.7	−0.26	0.1	78%
Brooke Barry	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	2.82	1.23	3–11	7.2	−1.59	4.6	>99%
Emma Wang	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	2.44	0.85	3–11	7.2	−1.59	4.6	>99%
Karya Basaraner	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	2.74	1.15	3–11	7.2	−1.59	4.6	>99%
Cole Amaral	Bowdoin College	2.36	-0.64	0–4	0.6	≤−3.00	0.9	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Dartmouth College	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	21%	upset
1	2	University of Rhode Island	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	56%
1	3	Roger Williams University	Brown University	77%
1	7	Tufts University	Bowdoin College	78%
1	8	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Dartmouth College	69%
1	9	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Brown University	50%
1	13	University of Rhode Island	Tufts University	28%	upset
1	14	Roger Williams University	Bowdoin College	91%
1	15	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Brown University	38%	upset
1	19	Tufts University	Dartmouth College	88%
1	20	Roger Williams University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	85%
1	21	Bowdoin College	University of Rhode Island	34%	upset
1	25	Tufts University	Brown University	66%
1	26	Roger Williams University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	89%
1	27	University of Rhode Island	Dartmouth College	74%
1	31	Bowdoin College	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	28%	upset
1	32	Roger Williams University	Tufts University	64%
1	33	University of Rhode Island	Brown University	44%	upset
1	37	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	62%
1	38	Bowdoin College	Dartmouth College	60%
1	39	Roger Williams University	University of Rhode Island	87%
1	43	Tufts University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	70%
1	44	Brown University	Dartmouth College	79%
1	45	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bowdoin College	61%
1	49	University of Rhode Island	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	48%	upset
1	50	Roger Williams University	Dartmouth College	95%
1	51	Tufts University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	76%
1	55	Brown University	Bowdoin College	71%
2	4	Dartmouth College	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	21%	upset
2	5	University of Rhode Island	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	56%
2	6	Roger Williams University	Brown University	77%
2	10	Tufts University	Bowdoin College	78%
2	11	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Dartmouth College	69%
2	12	Brown University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	50%	upset
2	16	Tufts University	University of Rhode Island	72%
2	17	Roger Williams University	Bowdoin College	91%
2	18	Brown University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	62%
2	22	Dartmouth College	Tufts University	12%	upset
2	23	Roger Williams University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	85%
2	24	University of Rhode Island	Bowdoin College	66%
2	28	Brown University	Tufts University	34%	upset
2	29	Roger Williams University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	89%
2	30	University of Rhode Island	Dartmouth College	74%
2	34	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Bowdoin College	72%
2	35	Tufts University	Roger Williams University	37%	upset
2	36	Brown University	University of Rhode Island	56%
2	40	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	38%	upset
2	41	Dartmouth College	Bowdoin College	40%	upset
2	42	Roger Williams University	University of Rhode Island	87%
2	46	Tufts University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	70%
2	47	Brown University	Dartmouth College	79%
2	48	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bowdoin College	60%
2	52	University of Rhode Island	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	48%	upset
2	53	Roger Williams University	Dartmouth College	95%
2	54	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Tufts University	24%	upset
2	56	Bowdoin College	Brown University	29%	upset

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Hawks	Jumbos	Rams	Bears	Bears	Bears	Green	Engineers
Roger Williams University Hawks	7–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Tufts University Jumbos	5–2	L	✕	L	W	W	W	W	W
University of Rhode Island Rams	5–2	L	W	✕	W	W	L	W	W
Brown University Bears	2–5	L	L	L	✕	L	W	W	L
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	3–4	L	L	L	W	✕	W	W	L
Bowdoin College Polar Bears	3–4	L	L	W	L	L	✕	W	W
Dartmouth College Big Green	1–6	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	2–5	L	L	L	W	W	L	L	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	Hawks	Jumbos	Rams	Bears	Bears	Bears	Green	Engineers
Roger Williams University Hawks	6–1	✕	L	W	W	W	W	W	W
Tufts University Jumbos	4–3	W	✕	W	L	L	W	L	W
University of Rhode Island Rams	4–3	L	L	✕	L	W	W	W	W
Brown University Bears	5–2	L	W	W	✕	W	L	W	W
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	4–3	L	W	L	L	✕	W	W	W
Bowdoin College Polar Bears	1–6	L	L	L	W	L	✕	L	L
Dartmouth College Big Green	3–4	L	W	L	L	L	W	✕	W
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	1–6	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Big Green	2-3-4	def.	Engineers	1-5-6
2	Rams	1-5-6	def.	Bears	2-3-4 DSQ
3	Hawks	1-4-5	def.	Bears	2-3-6
7	Jumbos	1-2-3	def.	Polar Bears	4-5-6
8	Bears	2-3-4	def.	Big Green	1-5-6
9	Engineers	1-3-6	def.	Bears	2-4-5
13	Rams	1-3-6	def.	Jumbos	2-4-5
14	Hawks	2-3-4	def.	Polar Bears	1-5-6
15	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
19	Jumbos	1-2-5	def.	Big Green	3-4-6
20	Hawks	1-2-4	def.	Engineers	3-5-6
21	Polar Bears	1-4-6	def.	Rams	2-3-5 DSQ
25	Jumbos	1-3-6	def.	Bears	2-4-5
26	Hawks	1-3-5	def.	Bears	2-4-6
27	Rams	1-2-5	def.	Big Green	3-4-6
31	Polar Bears	1-2-6	def.	Engineers	3-4-5
32	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
33	Rams	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
37	Engineers	1-2-6 DNF	def.	Bears	3-4-5
38	Polar Bears	1-2-4	def.	Big Green	3-5-6
39	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
43	Jumbos	1-2-4	def.	Engineers	3-5-6
44	Bears	1-3-6	def.	Big Green	2-4-5
45	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Polar Bears	4-5-6
49	Rams	1-3-6	def.	Engineers	2-4-5
50	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Big Green	4-5-6
51	Jumbos	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
55	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Polar Bears	3-5-6
4	Big Green	2-3-5	def.	Engineers	1-4-6
5	Rams	1-3-4	def.	Bears	2-5-6
6	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
10	Jumbos	1-2-6	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-5
11	Bears	1-3-4	def.	Big Green	2-5-6
12	Bears	1-3-5	def.	Engineers	2-4-6
16	Jumbos	1-4-5	def.	Rams	2-3-6
17	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-6
18	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
22	Big Green	1-2-6	def.	Jumbos	3-4-5
23	Hawks	2-3-4	def.	Engineers	1-5-6
24	Rams	2-3-5	def.	Polar Bears	1-4-6
28	Bears	2-3-4	def.	Jumbos	1-5-6
29	Hawks	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
30	Rams	1-3-4	def.	Big Green	2-5-6
34	Engineers	2-3-6 DNF	def.	Polar Bears	1-4-5 DSQ
35	Jumbos	1-3-4	def.	Hawks	2-5-6
36	Bears	1-4-5	def.	Rams	2-3-6
40	Bears	1-3-4	def.	Engineers	2-5-6 DNF
41	Big Green	1-3-6	def.	Polar Bears	2-4-5
42	Hawks	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
46	Jumbos	1-3-4	def.	Engineers	2-5-6
47	Bears	1-3-4	def.	Big Green	2-5-6
48	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Polar Bears	3-5-6
52	Rams	1-2-3	def.	Engineers	4-5-6
53	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Big Green	3-4-6
54	Bears	1-3-6	def.	Jumbos	2-4-5
56	Polar Bears	1-3-6	def.	Bears	2-4-5

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Roger Williams University	Hawks	Bo Angus '29 Connor Mchugh '28 Jack Roman '26 Reece Schwartz '29	Dominik Moncur '29 Maddy Martin '29 Sophia Litos '29
Tufts University	Jumbos	Crue Ziskind '29 Devon Owen '27 Kiana Beachy '28	Thomas Mazzeo '26 Patricia Winssinger '28 Harrison Vose '26
University of Rhode Island	Rams	Max Sigel '26 Olin Guck '26 Zachary Severson '27	Erin Little '28 Olivia Dutra '28 Harper Kelley '29
Brown University	Bears	Julian Dahiya '28 Leila Pfrang '29 William Baker '29	Marin Soderberg '28 Phoebe Hackett '28 Talia Levine '26
U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	Joey Richardson '28 Richard Pokorny '29 Tomas Riccio '28	Will Bryant '29 Gavin Vanmanen '27 Austin White '27
Bowdoin College	Polar Bears	Cole Amaral '28 Henry Ladd '29 Noah Reischmann '29 Ryan Keenan '29	Caroline O'Hara '29 Ava Tobias '28 Yasmine Nee '29 Eve Cintron '29
Dartmouth College	Big Green	Bradley Kirkpatrick '29 Turner Ryon '29 Will Eggena '27	Lucia Duffy '29 Sophie Menyhart '27 Finn Cairns '29
Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers	Brooke Barry '26 Emma Wang '27 Karya Basaraner '28	Christine Keedy Brown '28 Alice Colby '29 Layla Bursor '29 Sophia Woodbury '28

Conditions — 04/04/2026 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 69% · Pressure 1026.8 hPa

Temperature

47°F

↑ 57°F ↓ 39°F

Feels like 39°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

10.9 kn

avg · max 12.6 kn

Gusts to 29.7 kn

From ENE (66°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover82% Sunshine10.2 hrs Humidity69% Pressure1026.8 hPa

What this breeze does at Tufts — from fleet racing

Breeze: NE about 12 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Tufts in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.02)

Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Tufts by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (60 labelled fleet-race days at Tufts).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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