Thompson Trophy

HostCoast Guard
Date04/11/2026
TypeCross Regional
Boat420/FJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Stanford University	Cardinal	14–1
2	Harvard University	Crimson	14–1
3	Boston College	Eagles	10–5
4	College of Charleston	Cougars	10–5
5	Brown University	Bears	10–5
6	Tulane University	Green Wave	9–6
7	Roger Williams University	Hawks	8–7
8	Dartmouth College	Big Green	8–7
9	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers	7–8
10	Bowdoin College	Polar Bears	7–8
11	U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	6–9
12	University of Rhode Island	Rams	5–10
13	Yale University	Bulldogs	5–10
14	Connecticut College	Camels	4–11
15	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	3–12
16	Tufts University	Jumbos	0–15

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 30,767 team race matches sailed before 2026-04-11, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 86 of 117 matches (74%) with a log-loss of 0.509 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.10 ± 0.18: a typical event, more orderly than 32% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Stanford University Cardinal	2	12.87 school +0.48	Reade Decker / Callie Hammond 3.80 Thomas Sitzmann / Abby Baird 4.27 12–1 Vanessa Lahrkamp / Alice Schmid 4.34 11–1 Vanessa Lahrkamp / Dylan Sih 4.17 3–0 Thomas Sitzmann / Alice Schmid 4.30 2–0	88%	14–1 (93%)	+0.8
2	Harvard University Crimson	1	13.29 school +0.30	Robby Meek / Jacob Posner 4.15 Mitchell Callahan / Rosella Irfan 4.25 9–1 Justin Callahan / Aidan Pesce 4.53 7–1 Justin Callahan / Christina Chen 4.65 7–0 Mitchell Callahan / Christina Chen 4.22 5–0	92%	14–1 (93%)	+0.3
3	Boston College Eagles	6	10.78 school +0.35	Cody Roe / Christian Yanoti 3.46 Tanner Krygsveld / Sydney Lombard 3.50 Alex Lech / Ryan Mcgauley 3.43 8–3 Alex Lech / Emily Marlas 3.42 2–2	56%	10–5 (67%)	+1.6
4	College of Charleston Cougars	4	11.48 school +0.47	Benjamin Dufour / Clara Murphy 3.81 7–4 Noah Zittrer / Aidan Iaconis 3.78 7–3 Charlie Allen / Andrea Melnik 3.44 6–1 Charlie Allen / Jack Bolton 3.33 1–2 Noah Zittrer / Andrea Melnik 3.73 0–2 Charlie Allen / Malia Deane 3.52 0–2 Benjamin Dufour / Ty Ryan 3.84 0–1	67%	7–5 (58%)	−1.1
5	Brown University Bears	3	11.72 school +0.26	Blake Behrens / Caroline Keeffe-Jones 3.92 9–4 Guthrie Braun / Vera Allen 4.23 8–4 Cam Spriggs / Dominic Ciccimaro 3.32 7–2 James Brock / Phoebe Fogarty 3.62 6–1 Cam Spriggs / Phoebe Fogarty 3.42 0–1	74%	10–4 (71%)	−0.4
6	Tulane University Green Wave	5	11.14 school +0.05	Christian Ebbin / Sabrina Anderson 3.68 7–6 Hamilton Barclay / Taylor Bartell 3.87 4–5 Kelly Holthus / Jonah Wozniak 3.57 7–2 Kelly Holthus / Parker Kumler 3.58 2–4 Hamilton Barclay / Jonah Wozniak 3.96 2–1 Tate Christopher / Taylor Bartell 3.51 3–0 Christian Ebbin / Skye Terrell 3.71 2–0	63%	9–6 (60%)	−0.4
7	Roger Williams University Hawks	8	10.59 school +0.49	Oliver Stokke / Dawson Chambers-Tartaglino 3.40 8–6 Tristan Mcdonald / Didier Schouten 3.25 5–6 Drew Mastovsky / Maddy Martin 3.35 5–5 Bo Angus / Dominique Spinola 3.48 2–3 Bo Angus / Didier Schouten 3.46 3–0 Drew Mastovsky / Didier Schouten 3.40 0–1 Tristan Mcdonald / Maddy Martin 3.23 1–0	52%	8–7 (53%)	+0.2
8	Dartmouth College Big Green	7	10.70 school +0.42	Ryan Satterberg / Madeline Koelbel 3.81 Ben Sheppard / Vivian Heitkoetter 2.72 8–6 Chase Decker / Blake Oberbauer 3.71 5–5 Chase Decker / Sophie Menyhart 3.78 3–2 Turner Ryon / Sophie Menyhart 2.85 0–1	55%	8–7 (53%)	−0.2
9	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	13	9.51 school +0.11	Andy Yu / Adrian Maciuca 2.82 Robert Ulmer / Elliott Chalcraft 3.46 6–6 William Kulas / Ryan Hoffman 3.09 6–6 Robert Ulmer / Ellie Pinto 3.47 1–2 William Kulas / Elliott Chalcraft 3.13 1–2	30%	7–8 (47%)	+2.5
10	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	15	8.79	Ryan Keenan / Hazel Johnson 2.83 5–3 Michelangelo Vecchio / Riley Donahue 3.03 3–4 Ethan Danielson / Isabelle Tsuchitori 2.88 3–4 Michelangelo Vecchio / Isabelle Tsuchitori 3.19 4–3 Ethan Danielson / Charlotte Pare 2.73 4–3 Ryan Keenan / Kique Ruiz 2.81 2–2 Ryan Keenan / Eve Cintron 2.89 0–2	19%	7–7 (50%)	+4.3
11	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	10	10.16 school +0.23	Kyle Reinecke / Molly Jethwa 3.63 Sean Trudell / Noelle Sizemore 2.98 Owen Macwilliams / Sarah Mcnelly 3.26 4–8 Owen Macwilliams / Gregory Lesmerises Degraff 3.31 2–1	43%	6–9 (40%)	−0.5
12	University of Rhode Island Rams	12	9.74	Tyler Nash / Ursula Budd 3.50 3–7 Christopher Chwalk / Ava Kiss 2.88 3–7 Keith Grupenhoff / Eric Pohl 3.37 2–7 Tyler Nash / Eric Pohl 3.61 2–2 Christopher Chwalk / Parker Brown 2.96 2–2 Keith Grupenhoff / Quin Schneider 3.18 2–1 Owen Grainger / Quin Schneider 2.88 0–1 Keith Grupenhoff / Vanessa Reid 3.17 1–0	36%	5–9 (36%)	−0.1
13	Yale University Bulldogs	11	9.96 school +0.31	Alex Adams / Ella Benedetto 2.89 Morgan Pinckney / Annabel Woodworth 3.77 Mathias Reimer / Ashley Highland 3.03 5–8 Mathias Reimer / Margaret Ratzan 2.64 0–2	40%	5–10 (33%)	−1.0
14	Connecticut College Camels	16	8.79 school +0.24	Henry Scholz / Vivian Smith 3.01 Skylor Sweet / Madeline Synnestvedt 2.83 4–10 William Hurd / Tatem Gee 2.73 4–7 William Hurd / Alexandra Daigle 2.67 0–2 Duncan Craine / Alexandra Daigle 2.50 0–2 Skylor Sweet / Alexandra Daigle 2.71 0–1	19%	4–11 (27%)	+1.1
15	U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	9	10.28 school +0.12, home +0.33	Bradley Whiteway / Charles Pohl 3.31 Luke Zylinski / Grace Austin 3.16 Benjamin Reeser / Isabella Clark 3.34	46%	3–12 (20%)	−3.8
16	Tufts University Jumbos	14	9.02 school +0.37	Oliver Keeves / Lilah Parker 3.06 Courtland Doyle / Cici Priest 2.79 Gus Macaulay / Patricia Winssinger 2.77	22%	0–15 (0%)	−3.3

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
10	Bowdoin College	8.79	10.52	7–7	2.7	+1.73	5.7	1%
9	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	9.51	10.42	7–8	4.5	+0.92	1.7	11%
1	Stanford University	12.87	13.67	14–1	13.2	+0.80	0.4	42%
3	Boston College	10.78	11.42	10–5	8.4	+0.64	0.7	24%
14	Connecticut College	8.79	9.29	4–11	2.9	+0.50	0.4	31%
2	Harvard University	13.29	13.58	14–1	13.7	+0.29	0.1	63%
7	Roger Williams University	10.59	10.67	8–7	7.8	+0.08	0.0	57%
12	University of Rhode Island	9.74	9.72	5–9	5.1	−0.02	0.0	63%
8	Dartmouth College	10.70	10.61	8–7	8.2	−0.09	0.0	68%
6	Tulane University	11.14	10.98	9–6	9.4	−0.17	0.1	73%
11	U. S. Naval Academy	10.16	9.99	6–9	6.5	−0.17	0.1	72%
5	Brown University	11.72	11.52	10–4	10.4	−0.20	0.1	75%
13	Yale University	9.96	9.59	5–10	6.0	−0.38	0.3	82%
4	College of Charleston	11.48	10.95	7–5	8.1	−0.53	0.4	88%
15	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	10.28	8.73	3–12	6.9	−1.55	4.1	>99%
16	Tufts University	9.02	6.02	0–15	3.3	≤−3.00	5.6	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Tate Christopher	Tulane University	3.51	6.51	3–0	2.2	≥+3.00	1.4	37%
Ryan Keenan	Bowdoin College	2.83	4.56	7–7	2.7	+1.73	5.7	1%
Michelangelo Vecchio	Bowdoin College	3.03	4.77	7–7	2.7	+1.73	5.7	1%
Ethan Danielson	Bowdoin College	2.88	4.62	7–7	2.7	+1.73	5.7	1%
Robert Ulmer	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	3.46	4.37	7–8	4.5	+0.92	1.7	11%
William Kulas	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	3.09	4.01	7–8	4.5	+0.92	1.7	11%
Andy Yu	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	2.82	3.74	7–8	4.5	+0.92	1.7	11%
Reade Decker	Stanford University	3.80	4.60	14–1	13.2	+0.80	0.4	42%
Thomas Sitzmann	Stanford University	4.27	5.07	14–1	13.2	+0.80	0.4	42%
Vanessa Lahrkamp	Stanford University	4.34	5.14	14–1	13.2	+0.80	0.4	42%
William Hurd	Connecticut College	2.73	3.38	4–9	2.7	+0.65	0.6	26%
Bo Angus	Roger Williams University	3.48	4.12	5–3	4.0	+0.65	0.5	35%
Cody Roe	Boston College	3.46	4.10	10–5	8.4	+0.64	0.7	24%
Tanner Krygsveld	Boston College	3.50	4.15	10–5	8.4	+0.64	0.7	24%
Alex Lech	Boston College	3.43	4.08	10–5	8.4	+0.64	0.7	24%
Henry Scholz	Connecticut College	3.01	3.51	4–11	2.9	+0.50	0.4	31%
Skylor Sweet	Connecticut College	2.83	3.33	4–11	2.9	+0.50	0.4	31%
Justin Callahan	Harvard University	4.53	4.82	14–1	13.7	+0.29	0.1	63%
Mitchell Callahan	Harvard University	4.25	4.55	14–1	13.7	+0.29	0.1	63%
Robby Meek	Harvard University	4.15	4.44	14–1	13.7	+0.29	0.1	63%
Oliver Stokke	Roger Williams University	3.40	3.67	8–6	7.3	+0.27	0.1	46%
Ben Sheppard	Dartmouth College	2.72	2.88	8–6	7.6	+0.16	0.0	53%
Keith Grupenhoff	University of Rhode Island	3.37	3.49	5–8	4.7	+0.12	0.0	55%
Cam Spriggs	Brown University	3.32	3.40	7–3	6.9	+0.08	0.0	64%
Tyler Nash	University of Rhode Island	3.50	3.48	5–9	5.1	−0.02	0.0	63%
Christopher Chwalk	University of Rhode Island	2.88	2.85	5–9	5.1	−0.02	0.0	63%
Ryan Satterberg	Dartmouth College	3.81	3.72	8–7	8.2	−0.09	0.0	68%
Chase Decker	Dartmouth College	3.71	3.62	8–7	8.2	−0.09	0.0	68%
Kelly Holthus	Tulane University	3.57	3.41	9–6	9.4	−0.17	0.1	73%
Christian Ebbin	Tulane University	3.68	3.52	9–6	9.4	−0.17	0.1	73%
Kyle Reinecke	U. S. Naval Academy	3.63	3.46	6–9	6.5	−0.17	0.1	72%
Owen Macwilliams	U. S. Naval Academy	3.26	3.09	6–9	6.5	−0.17	0.1	72%
Sean Trudell	U. S. Naval Academy	2.98	2.81	6–9	6.5	−0.17	0.1	72%
Tristan Mcdonald	Roger Williams University	3.25	3.07	6–6	6.4	−0.18	0.1	73%
Blake Behrens	Brown University	3.92	3.67	9–4	9.5	−0.24	0.1	77%
Drew Mastovsky	Roger Williams University	3.35	3.06	5–6	5.6	−0.29	0.1	78%
Guthrie Braun	Brown University	4.23	3.90	8–4	8.6	−0.33	0.1	81%
James Brock	Brown University	3.62	3.29	6–1	6.2	−0.33	0.1	83%
Alex Adams	Yale University	2.89	2.51	5–10	6.0	−0.38	0.3	82%
Mathias Reimer	Yale University	3.03	2.65	5–10	6.0	−0.38	0.3	82%
Morgan Pinckney	Yale University	3.77	3.39	5–10	6.0	−0.38	0.3	82%
Noah Zittrer	College of Charleston	3.78	3.25	7–5	8.1	−0.53	0.4	88%
Benjamin Dufour	College of Charleston	3.81	3.27	7–5	8.1	−0.53	0.4	88%
Charlie Allen	College of Charleston	3.44	2.91	7–5	8.1	−0.53	0.4	88%
Hamilton Barclay	Tulane University	3.87	3.28	6–6	7.2	−0.59	0.5	89%
Bradley Whiteway	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	3.31	1.76	3–12	6.9	−1.55	4.1	>99%
Luke Zylinski	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	3.16	1.61	3–12	6.9	−1.55	4.1	>99%
Benjamin Reeser	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	3.34	1.80	3–12	6.9	−1.55	4.1	>99%
Oliver Keeves	Tufts University	3.06	0.06	0–15	3.3	≤−3.00	5.6	>99%
Courtland Doyle	Tufts University	2.79	-0.21	0–15	3.3	≤−3.00	5.6	>99%
Gus Macaulay	Tufts University	2.77	-0.23	0–15	3.3	≤−3.00	5.6	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Harvard University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	95%
1	2	Stanford University	Dartmouth College	88%
1	3	Roger Williams University	Connecticut College	84%
1	4	Bowdoin College	Yale University	22%	upset
1	5	College of Charleston	Tulane University	55%
1	6	Boston College	Brown University	27%	upset
1	7	U. S. Naval Academy	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	67%
1	8	University of Rhode Island	Tufts University	68%
1	9	Harvard University	Roger Williams University	94%
1	10	Stanford University	Yale University	95%
1	11	Connecticut College	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	19%	upset
1	12	Dartmouth College	Bowdoin College	88%
1	13	College of Charleston	U. S. Naval Academy	79%
1	14	Brown University	University of Rhode Island	88%
1	15	Tulane University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	86%
1	16	Boston College	Tufts University	85%
1	17	Harvard University	Connecticut College	99%
1	18	Stanford University	Bowdoin College	98%
1	19	College of Charleston	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	77%
1	20	Brown University	Dartmouth College	73%
1	21	Roger Williams University	Tulane University	38%	upset
1	22	Boston College	Yale University	68%
1	23	Harvard University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	98%
1	24	Stanford University	Tufts University	98%
1	25	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	U. S. Naval Academy	54%
1	26	Dartmouth College	University of Rhode Island	72%
1	27	College of Charleston	Connecticut College	93%
1	28	Brown University	Bowdoin College	93%
1	29	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Roger Williams University	27%	upset
1	30	Yale University	Tufts University	73%
1	31	Harvard University	Tulane University	90%
1	32	Stanford University	Boston College	89%
1	33	Connecticut College	U. S. Naval Academy	21%	upset
1	34	University of Rhode Island	Bowdoin College	72%
1	35	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	31%	upset
1	36	Dartmouth College	Tufts University	84%
1	37	Roger Williams University	College of Charleston	27%	upset
1	38	Brown University	Yale University	88%
1	39	Harvard University	U. S. Naval Academy	96%
1	40	Stanford University	University of Rhode Island	96%
1	41	Connecticut College	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	34%	upset
1	42	Bowdoin College	Tufts University	44%	upset
1	43	Tulane University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	71%
1	44	Dartmouth College	Boston College	47%	upset
1	45	Roger Williams University	U. S. Naval Academy	62%
1	46	University of Rhode Island	Yale University	44%	upset
1	47	Harvard University	College of Charleston	84%
1	48	Stanford University	Brown University	76%
1	49	Tulane University	Connecticut College	89%
1	50	Boston College	Bowdoin College	88%
1	51	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Roger Williams University	44%	upset
1	52	Dartmouth College	Yale University	66%
1	53	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	College of Charleston	12%	upset
1	54	Brown University	Tufts University	89%
1	55	Tulane University	U. S. Naval Academy	74%
1	56	Boston College	University of Rhode Island	73%
1	57	Stanford University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	93%
1	58	Harvard University	Bowdoin College	99%
1	59	Roger Williams University	Dartmouth College	46%	upset
1	60	College of Charleston	Yale University	80%
1	61	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Tufts University	62%
1	62	Tulane University	University of Rhode Island	80%
1	63	Stanford University	U. S. Naval Academy	94%
1	64	Brown University	Connecticut College	91%
1	65	Boston College	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	62%
1	66	Harvard University	Dartmouth College	94%
1	67	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Bowdoin College	67%
1	68	Roger Williams University	Yale University	65%
1	69	Stanford University	College of Charleston	79%
1	70	U. S. Naval Academy	Brown University	14%	upset
1	71	Tulane University	Tufts University	91%
1	72	University of Rhode Island	Connecticut College	74%
1	73	Dartmouth College	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	61%
1	74	Yale University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	63%
1	75	Stanford University	Roger Williams University	88%
1	76	Harvard University	Brown University	80%
1	77	Boston College	College of Charleston	35%	upset
1	78	Connecticut College	Tufts University	45%	upset
1	79	U. S. Naval Academy	University of Rhode Island	67%
1	80	Bowdoin College	Tulane University	8%	upset
1	81	Dartmouth College	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	76%
1	82	Yale University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	43%	upset
1	83	Boston College	Roger Williams University	55%
1	84	College of Charleston	Tufts University	92%
1	85	Harvard University	University of Rhode Island	97%
1	86	Brown University	Tulane University	63%
1	87	Bowdoin College	Connecticut College	49%	upset
1	88	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Stanford University	3%	upset
1	89	Yale University	U. S. Naval Academy	47%	upset
1	90	College of Charleston	Dartmouth College	69%
1	91	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Tufts University	78%
1	92	Tulane University	Boston College	60%
1	93	Brown University	Roger Williams University	75%
1	94	Stanford University	Harvard University	42%	upset
1	95	Bowdoin College	U. S. Naval Academy	20%	upset
1	96	Yale University	Connecticut College	76%
1	97	University of Rhode Island	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	33%	upset
1	98	Boston College	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	77%
1	99	Roger Williams University	Tufts University	84%
1	100	Stanford University	Tulane University	85%
1	102	Dartmouth College	Connecticut College	89%
1	103	U. S. Naval Academy	Boston College	35%	upset
1	104	Harvard University	Yale University	98%
1	105	Bowdoin College	Roger Williams University	15%	upset
1	106	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	University of Rhode Island	44%	upset
1	107	Brown University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	85%
1	108	Tulane University	Dartmouth College	54%
1	109	Boston College	Connecticut College	90%
1	110	Harvard University	Tufts University	99%
1	112	Roger Williams University	University of Rhode Island	69%
1	113	Brown University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	92%
1	114	U. S. Naval Academy	Dartmouth College	35%	upset
1	115	Stanford University	Connecticut College	98%
1	116	Tulane University	Yale University	77%
1	117	Harvard University	Boston College	93%
1	118	Bowdoin College	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	18%	upset
1	120	U. S. Naval Academy	Tufts University	76%

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Cardinal	Crimson	Eagles	Cougars	Bears	Wave	Hawks	Green	Engineers	Bears	Midshipmen	Rams	Bulldogs	Camels	Bears	Jumbos
Stanford University Cardinal	14–1	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	L	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Harvard University Crimson	14–1	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Boston College Eagles	10–5	L	L	✕	W	W	L	W	L	W	W	L	W	W	W	W	W
College of Charleston Cougars	10–5	L	L	L	✕	W	W	L	W	L	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Brown University Bears	10–5	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	L	W	W	W	W	W
Tulane University Green Wave	9–6	L	L	W	L	L	✕	L	W	W	L	W	W	W	W	W	W
Roger Williams University Hawks	8–7	L	L	L	W	L	W	✕	W	L	L	W	W	W	W	L	W
Dartmouth College Big Green	8–7	L	L	W	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	L	W	W	W	W	W
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	7–8	W	L	L	W	L	L	W	L	✕	W	L	W	L	L	W	W
Bowdoin College Polar Bears	7–8	L	L	L	L	L	W	W	L	L	✕	W	L	W	W	W	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	6–9	L	L	W	L	W	L	L	W	W	L	✕	W	L	L	L	W
University of Rhode Island Rams	5–10	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	✕	W	W	W	W
Yale University Bulldogs	5–10	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	W	L	✕	W	W	W
Connecticut College Camels	4–11	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	W	L	L	✕	W	W
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	3–12	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	L	L	W	L	L	L	✕	W
Tufts University Jumbos	0–15	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Crimson	2-3-4	def.	Bears	1-5-6
2	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Big Green	4-5-6
3	Hawks	1-3-4	def.	Camels	2-5-6
4	Polar Bears	1-2-6	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-5
5	Cougars	1-2-6	def.	Green Wave	3-4-5
6	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
7	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Engineers	3-4-6
8	Rams	1-2-3	def.	Jumbos	4-5-6
9	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Hawks	4-5-6
10	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Bulldogs	4-5-6
11	Camels	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
12	Big Green	1-3-5	def.	Polar Bears	2-4-6
13	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
14	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
15	Green Wave	1-2-3	def.	Engineers	4-5-6
16	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Jumbos	3-5-6
17	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Camels	4-5-6
18	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Polar Bears	4-5-6
19	Cougars	2-3-4	def.	Bears	1-5-6
20	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Big Green	3-5-6
21	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Green Wave	3-4-6
22	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Bulldogs	3-5-6
23	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Engineers	4-5-6
24	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Jumbos	4-5-6
25	Bears	1-3-4	def.	Midshipmen	2-5-6
26	Big Green	2-3-4	def.	Rams	1-5-6
27	Cougars	1-2-6	def.	Camels	3-4-5
28	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Polar Bears	3-5-6
29	Engineers	1-2-6	def.	Hawks	3-4-5
30	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
31	Crimson	1-2-6	def.	Green Wave	3-4-5
32	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Eagles	4-5-6
33	Camels	1-3-5	def.	Midshipmen	2-4-6
34	Rams	1-2-4	def.	Polar Bears	3-5-6
35	Engineers	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
36	Big Green	2-3-4	def.	Jumbos	1-5-6
37	Hawks	1-4-5	def.	Cougars	2-3-6
38	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Bulldogs	4-5-6
39	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
40	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
41	Camels	1-3-5	def.	Engineers	2-4-6 DNF
42	Polar Bears	1-2-6	def.	Jumbos	3-4-5
43	Green Wave	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
44	Big Green	2-3-4	def.	Eagles	1-5-6
45	Hawks	1-2-6	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-5
46	Rams	1-2-3	def.	Bulldogs	4-5-6
47	Crimson	1-4-5	def.	Cougars	2-3-6 DNF
48	Cardinal	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
49	Green Wave	1-2-6	def.	Camels	3-4-5
50	Eagles	2-3-4	def.	Polar Bears	1-5-6
51	Bears	2-3-4	def.	Hawks	1-5-6
52	Big Green	1-2-4	def.	Bulldogs	3-5-6
53	Engineers	1-2-6	def.	Cougars	3-4-5
54	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
55	Green Wave	1-4-5	def.	Midshipmen	2-3-6
56	Eagles	1-3-5	def.	Rams	2-4-6
57	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
58	Crimson	1-2-4	def.	Polar Bears	3-5-6
59	Hawks	1-2-4	def.	Big Green	3-5-6
60	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Bulldogs	4-5-6
61	Engineers	1-3-5	def.	Jumbos	2-4-6
62	Green Wave	1-2-6	def.	Rams	3-4-5
63	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Midshipmen	4-5-6
64	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Camels	4-5-6
65	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
66	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Big Green	4-5-6
67	Engineers	1-2-5	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-6
68	Hawks	2-3-5	def.	Bulldogs	1-4-6 DNF
69	Cardinal	1-2-4 DSQ	def.	Cougars	3-5-6 DNF
70	Midshipmen	2-3-4	def.	Bears	1-5-6
71	Green Wave	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
72	Rams	2-3-4	def.	Camels	1-5-6
73	Big Green	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
74	Bulldogs	1-3-5	def.	Engineers	2-4-6 DNF
75	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Hawks	3-5-6
76	Crimson	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
77	Eagles	3-4-5	def.	Cougars	1-2-6 DSQ
78	Camels	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
79	Midshipmen	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
80	Polar Bears	1-3-5	def.	Green Wave	2-4-6
81	Big Green	1-4-5	def.	Engineers	2-3-6
82	Bulldogs	2-3-4	def.	Bears	1-5-6
83	Eagles	2-3-4	def.	Hawks	1-5-6
84	Cougars	1-3-4	def.	Jumbos	2-5-6
85	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
86	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Green Wave	3-5-6
87	Polar Bears	2-3-4	def.	Camels	1-5-6
88	Engineers	1-3-6	def.	Cardinal	2-4-5
89	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-5
90	Cougars	1-2-4	def.	Big Green	3-5-6
91	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
92	Green Wave	1-2-5	def.	Eagles	3-4-6
93	Bears	1-3-4	def.	Hawks	2-5-6
94	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Crimson	4-5-6
95	Polar Bears	2-3-4	def.	Midshipmen	1-5-6
96	Bulldogs	1-3-6	def.	Camels	2-4-5
97	Rams	1-3-5	def.	Bears	2-4-6
98	Eagles	1-3-4	def.	Engineers	2-5-6
99	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
100	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Green Wave	3-4-6
101	Cougars	1-3-6	def.	Bears	2-4-5
102	Big Green	1-2-6	def.	Camels	3-4-5
103	Midshipmen	1-2-3	def.	Eagles	4-5-6
104	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-6
105	Polar Bears	1-2-6	def.	Hawks	3-4-5
106	Engineers	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
107	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
108	Green Wave	1-2-4	def.	Big Green	3-5-6
109	Eagles	2-3-4	def.	Camels	1-5-6
110	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Jumbos	4-5-6
111	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-6
112	Hawks	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
113	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Engineers	3-4-6
114	Midshipmen	1-2-4	def.	Big Green	3-5-6
115	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Camels	3-5-6
116	Green Wave	1-2-6	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-5
117	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Eagles	4-5-6
118	Polar Bears	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
119	Cougars	1-2-6	def.	Rams	3-4-5
120	Midshipmen	1-3-4	def.	Jumbos	2-5-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Stanford University	Cardinal	Reade Decker '27 Thomas Sitzmann '27 Vanessa Lahrkamp '26	Callie Hammond '29 Abby Baird '28 Alice Schmid '27 Dylan Sih '28
Harvard University	Crimson	Justin Callahan '26 Mitchell Callahan '26 Robby Meek '27	Aidan Pesce '26 Christina Chen '27 Rosella Irfan '27 Jacob Posner '29
Boston College	Eagles	Alex Lech '28 Cody Roe '29 Tanner Krygsveld '29	Emily Marlas '26 Ryan Mcgauley '27 Christian Yanoti '29 Sydney Lombard '29
College of Charleston	Cougars	Benjamin Dufour '26 Charlie Allen '28 Noah Zittrer '26	Clara Murphy '27 Ty Ryan '26 Malia Deane '29 Andrea Melnik '27 Jack Bolton '27 Aidan Iaconis '26
Brown University	Bears	Blake Behrens '27 Cam Spriggs '27 Guthrie Braun '26 James Brock '28	Caroline Keeffe-Jones '26 Phoebe Fogarty '29 Dominic Ciccimaro '29 Vera Allen '27
Tulane University	Green Wave	Christian Ebbin '28 Hamilton Barclay '27 Kelly Holthus '27 Tate Christopher '29	Sabrina Anderson '28 Skye Terrell '29 Taylor Bartell '28 Jonah Wozniak '29 Parker Kumler '27
Roger Williams University	Hawks	Bo Angus '29 Drew Mastovsky '26 Oliver Stokke '26 Tristan Mcdonald '28	Dominique Spinola '26 Didier Schouten '29 Maddy Martin '29 Dawson Chambers-Tartaglino '27
Dartmouth College	Big Green	Ben Sheppard '27 Chase Decker '28 Ryan Satterberg '27 Turner Ryon '29	Vivian Heitkoetter '27 Blake Oberbauer '29 Sophie Menyhart '27 Madeline Koelbel '26
Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers	Andy Yu '27 Robert Ulmer '27 William Kulas '28	Adrian Maciuca '29 Elliott Chalcraft '27 Ellie Pinto '27 Ryan Hoffman '28
Bowdoin College	Polar Bears	Ethan Danielson '26 Michelangelo Vecchio '27 Ryan Keenan '29	Charlotte Pare '28 Isabelle Tsuchitori '26 Riley Donahue '28 Hazel Johnson '27 Kique Ruiz '26 Eve Cintron '29
U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	Kyle Reinecke '28 Owen Macwilliams '28 Sean Trudell '28	Molly Jethwa '28 Sarah Mcnelly '28 Gregory Lesmerises Degraff '28 Noelle Sizemore '29
University of Rhode Island	Rams	Christopher Chwalk '28 Keith Grupenhoff '29 Owen Grainger '28 Tyler Nash '26	Ava Kiss '29 Parker Brown '26 Eric Pohl '28 Vanessa Reid '26 Quin Schneider '29 Ursula Budd '27
Yale University	Bulldogs	Alex Adams '26 Mathias Reimer '27 Morgan Pinckney '27	Ella Benedetto '29 Margaret Ratzan '29 Ashley Highland '27 Annabel Woodworth '28
Connecticut College	Camels	Duncan Craine '26 Henry Scholz '27 Skylor Sweet '26 William Hurd '27	Alexandra Daigle '29 Vivian Smith '27 Madeline Synnestvedt '27 Tatem Gee '27
U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	Benjamin Reeser '28 Bradley Whiteway '26 Luke Zylinski '26	Isabella Clark '29 Charles Pohl '26 Grace Austin '27
Tufts University	Jumbos	Courtland Doyle '27 Gus Macaulay '27 Oliver Keeves '28	Cici Priest '28 Patricia Winssinger '28 Lilah Parker '26

Conditions — 04/11/2026 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 46% · Pressure 1022.1 hPa

Temperature

56°F

↑ 59°F ↓ 52°F

Feels like 49°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

11.0 kn

avg · max 11.6 kn

Gusts to 26.0 kn

From NNW (327°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover2% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity46% Pressure1022.1 hPa

What this breeze does at Coast Guard — from fleet racing

Breeze: NW about 13 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Coast Guard in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.07)

Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.07 means a rating gap counts about 6% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Coast Guard by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (57 labelled fleet-race days at Coast Guard).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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