Boston College '29
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3.33 (fleet 4.55) | 10 of 331 | +0.04 ± 0.17 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 52–20 (72%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 | 5 | 40–20 | — |
| Fall 2025 | 1 | 12–0 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 6 graded regattas (72 matches) the record is 52–20 against 51.3 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+0.7). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-23 | ICSA Open Team Race National Championship | skipper | 3.55 | 3.86 | 3–2 | 2.7 | +0.32 | 0.1 | 58% |
| 2026-04-11 | Thompson Trophy | skipper | 3.47 | 4.06 | 10–5 | 8.5 | +0.59 | 0.6 | 27% |
| 2026-03-21 | Seahawk Team Race | skipper | 3.25 | 2.92 | 14–1 | 14.3 | −0.33 | 0.1 | 83% |
| 2026-03-14 | Geiger Trophy | skipper | 3.38 | 2.79 | 9–1 | 9.4 | −0.60 | 0.2 | 89% |
| 2026-03-07 | The Wood Trophy | skipper | 3.46 | 3.17 | 4–11 | 4.7 | −0.28 | 0.1 | 77% |
| 2025-10-18 | Norman Reid Team Race | skipper | 3.32 | 6.32 | 12–0 | 11.7 | ≥+3.00 | 0.4 | 74% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2026 Team page Season | |||||
| Sherman Hoyt Trophy | Skipper | B | 10 | 4.9 | 4.63 |
| Open Atlantic Coast Championship | Skipper | B | 10 | 6.3 | 4.74 |
| Open Atlantic Coast Championships Round 1B | Skipper | B | 10 | 4.3 | 4.85 |
| Hatch Brown Trophy 2026 | Skipper | B | 8 | 5.0 | 4.31 |
| Danmark Trophy | Skipper | A | 11 | 7.2 | 4.58 |
| Spring 2026 Team page Season | |||||
| The Wood Trophy | Skipper | TR | 21 | 38% | — |
| Thompson Trophy | Skipper | TR | 15 | 67% | — |
| Seahawk Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 93% | — |
| Open Fleet Race National Championships | Skipper | B | 4 | 4.0 | 5.68 |
| ICSA Open Team Race National Championship | Skipper | TR | 15 | 47% | — |
| Geiger Trophy | Skipper | TR | 12 | 92% | — |
| Fall 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| Savin Hill Invite | Skipper | B | 8 | 4.9 | 3.41 |
| Norman Reid Team Race | Skipper | TR | 12 | 100% | — |
| Nickerson Trophy | Skipper | A | 14 | 3.9 | 4.42 |
| Hatch Brown Trophy 2025 | Skipper | C | 3 | 8.3 | 3.28 |
| The George Warren Smith Trophy 25 | Skipper | B | 7 | 1.9 | 5.23 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Cody Roe |  St. Thomas Aquinas High School |
'25 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
