| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Boston College | Eagles | 12–0 |
| 2 |  |
Tufts University | Jumbos | 9–3 |
| 3 |  |
Brown University | Bears | 6–6 |
| 4 |  |
Harvard University | Crimson | 3–9 |
| 5 |  |
Brandeis University | Judges | 0–12 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 28,054 team race matches sailed before 2025-10-18, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 27 of 30 matches (90%) with a log-loss of 0.124 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.17 ± 0.36: a typical event, more orderly than 63% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boston College Eagles | 1 | 10.95 school +0.36, home +0.36 | Ryan Mcgauley / Madeline Torrey 3.41 Alex Lech / Kennedy Laureigh 3.46 Cody Roe / Lauren Leonard | 98% | 12–0 (100%) | +0.3 |
| 2 | Tufts University Jumbos | 3 | 7.92 school +0.34 | Clark Morris / Jack Poynter 2.92 6–3 Kiana Beachy / Patricia Winssinger 2.21 6–3 Walter Mcfarland / Sarah Leary 6–3 Crue Ziskind / Dory Russell 9–0 | 59% | 9–3 (75%) | +2.0 |
| 3 | Brown University Bears | 2 | 8.10 school +0.36 | Julian Dahiya / Elena Sun 2.41 Kaitlyn Hamilton / Gabby Collins Leila Pfrang / Phoebe Hackett | 66% | 6–6 (50%) | −1.9 |
| 4 | Harvard University Crimson | 4 | 5.18 school +0.32 | Xavier Ayala Vermont / Julia Downey 1.55 Theresa Straw / Grace Naylor Caroline Straw / Catherine Mignone | 27% | 3–9 (25%) | −0.2 |
| 5 | Brandeis University Judges | 5 | 1.24 | Joseph Richter / Dominic Qin Myles Hazen / Rebecca Yingling Miles Laker / Emma Dionne | 0% | 0–12 (0%) | −0.1 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boston College | 10.95 | 13.95 | 12–0 | 11.7 | ≥+3.00 | 0.4 | 74% |
| 2 | Tufts University | 7.92 | 9.83 | 9–3 | 7.1 | +1.92 | 2.7 | 7% |
| 4 | Harvard University | 5.18 | 4.31 | 3–9 | 3.3 | −0.87 | 0.1 | 96% |
| 3 | Brown University | 8.10 | 6.33 | 6–6 | 7.9 | −1.77 | 2.5 | 99% |
| 5 | Brandeis University | 1.24 | -1.76 | 0–12 | 0.1 | ≤−3.00 | 0.1 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Lech | Boston College | 3.46 | 6.46 | 12–0 | 11.7 | ≥+3.00 | 0.4 | 74% |
| Clark Morris | Tufts University | 2.92 | 3.07 | 6–3 | 6.0 | +0.15 | 0.0 | 87% |
| Xavier Ayala Vermont | Harvard University | 1.55 | 0.69 | 3–9 | 3.3 | −0.87 | 0.1 | 96% |
| Theresa Straw | Harvard University | 1.66 | 0.79 | 3–9 | 3.3 | −0.87 | 0.1 | 96% |
| Caroline Straw | Harvard University | 1.38 | 0.51 | 3–9 | 3.3 | −0.87 | 0.1 | 96% |
| Joseph Richter | Brandeis University | 0.18 | -2.82 | 0–12 | 0.1 | ≤−3.00 | 0.1 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | Eagles | Jumbos | Bears | Crimson | Judges | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston College Eagles | 4–0 | ✕ | W | W | W | W |
| Tufts University Jumbos | 3–1 | L | ✕ | W | W | W |
| Brown University Bears | 2–2 | L | L | ✕ | W | W |
| Harvard University Crimson | 1–3 | L | L | L | ✕ | W |
| Brandeis University Judges | 0–4 | L | L | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Eagles | Jumbos | Bears | Crimson | Judges | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston College Eagles | 4–0 | ✕ | W | W | W | W |
| Tufts University Jumbos | 3–1 | L | ✕ | W | W | W |
| Brown University Bears | 2–2 | L | L | ✕ | W | W |
| Harvard University Crimson | 1–3 | L | L | L | ✕ | W |
| Brandeis University Judges | 0–4 | L | L | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Eagles | Jumbos | Bears | Crimson | Judges | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston College Eagles | 4–0 | ✕ | W | W | W | W |
| Tufts University Jumbos | 3–1 | L | ✕ | W | W | W |
| Brown University Bears | 2–2 | L | L | ✕ | W | W |
| Harvard University Crimson | 1–3 | L | L | L | ✕ | W |
| Brandeis University Judges | 0–4 | L | L | L | L | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Eagles | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Judges | 4-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Bears | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Crimson | 3-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Eagles | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Jumbos | 3-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Crimson | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Judges | 3-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Eagles | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bears | 4-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Jumbos | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Judges | 3-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Eagles | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Crimson | 4-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Bears | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Judges | 3-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Jumbos | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Crimson | 3-4-6 |
| 10 | |
Jumbos | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bears | 3-4-5 |
| 11 | |
Eagles | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Judges | 4-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Bears | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Crimson | 4-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Eagles | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Jumbos | 4-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Crimson | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Judges | 4-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Eagles | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bears | 4-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Jumbos | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Judges | 4-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Eagles | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Crimson | 3-4-5 |
| 18 | |
Bears | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Judges | 4-5-6 |
| 19 | |
Jumbos | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Crimson | 2-4-6 |
| 20 | |
Jumbos | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bears | 3-4-6 |
| 21 | |
Eagles | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Judges | 4-5-6 |
| 22 | |
Bears | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Crimson | 3-5-6 |
| 23 | |
Eagles | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Jumbos | 3-4-6 |
| 24 | |
Crimson | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Judges | 4-5-6 |
| 25 | |
Eagles | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Bears | 1-5-6 |
| 26 | |
Jumbos | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Judges | 3-4-6 |
| 27 | |
Eagles | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Crimson | 4-5-6 |
| 28 | |
Bears | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Judges | 4-5-6 |
| 29 | |
Jumbos | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Crimson | 3-4-6 |
| 30 | |
Jumbos | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bears | 3-4-5 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Boston College | Eagles | Alex Lech '28 Cody Roe '29 Ryan Mcgauley '27 |
Kennedy Laureigh '26 Lauren Leonard '29 Madeline Torrey '28 |
|
Tufts University | Jumbos | Clark Morris '26 Crue Ziskind '29 Kiana Beachy '28 Walter Mcfarland '29 |
Jack Poynter '29 Dory Russell '28 Patricia Winssinger '28 Sarah Leary '28 |
|
Brown University | Bears | Julian Dahiya '28 Kaitlyn Hamilton '26 Leila Pfrang '29 |
Elena Sun '29 Gabby Collins '28 Phoebe Hackett '28 |
|
Harvard University | Crimson | Caroline Straw '29 Theresa Straw '28 Xavier Ayala Vermont '27 |
Catherine Mignone '26 Grace Naylor '29 Julia Downey '27 |
|
Brandeis University | Judges | Joseph Richter '28 Miles Laker '27 Myles Hazen '26 |
Dominic Qin '27 Emma Dionne '27 Rebecca Yingling '28 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.14 means a rating gap counts about 12% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
