Harvard University '29
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.42 (fleet 1.97) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 3–9 (25%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2025 | 1 | 3–9 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 1 graded regattas (12 matches) the record is 3–9 against 3.3 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−0.3). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 0 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-18 | Norman Reid Team Race | skipper | 1.38 | 0.51 | 3–9 | 3.3 | −0.87 | 0.1 | 96% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2026 Team page Season | |||||
| Charles Invite | Skipper | A | 10 | 3.9 | 2.79 |
| Spring 2026 Team page Season | |||||
| Owen Trophy | Skipper | A | 8 | 9.0 | 1.31 |
| Central 4 FR | Skipper | A | 4 | 4.8 | 2.08 |
| Fall 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| Terrier Invite | Skipper | B | 6 | 8.7 | 1.43 |
| Sister Ester Trophy | Skipper | B | 4 | 11.2 | 1.78 |
| Regis Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 2 | 14.0 | 0.62 |
| Norman Reid Team Race | Skipper | TR | 12 | 25% | — |
| Harvard Invitational | Skipper | A | 4 | 9.5 | 1.61 |
| The George Warren Smith Trophy 25 | Skipper | A | 7 | 12.3 | 1.59 |
| Charles Invite | Skipper | B | 9 | 6.4 | -0.47 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
