Harvard University '29
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.70 (fleet 0.96) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as crew 3–9 (25%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2025 | 1 | — | 3–9 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 1 graded regattas (12 matches) the record is 3–9 against 3.3 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−0.3). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 0 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-18 | Norman Reid Team Race | crew | 1.66 | 0.79 | 3–9 | 3.3 | −0.87 | 0.1 | 96% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2026 Team page Season | |||||
| Regis Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 12.6 | 0.76 |
| The George Warren Smith '22 Trophy 2026 | Skipper | B | 10 | 9.3 | 1.48 |
| Charles Invite | Skipper | B | 10 | 7.0 | 1.03 |
| Spring 2026 Team page Season | |||||
| Owen Trophy | Skipper | B | 8 | 10.2 | -0.12 |
| Fall 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| Sister Ester Trophy | Crew | A | 4 | 10.8 | +0.16 |
| Norman Reid Team Race | Crew | TR | 12 | 25% | — |
| BU Invite | Skipper | B | 3 | 11.7 | 0.60 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Grace Naylor |  Unregistered-NESSA |
'25 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
