Seahawk Team Race

HostSt. Mary's
Date03/21/2026
TypeRegional
Boat420
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Boston College	Eagles	14–1
2	U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	13–2
3	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	9–6
4	Dartmouth College	Big Green	5–10
5	Penn State University	Nittany Lions	3–12
6	Fordham University	Rams	1–14

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 29,369 team race matches sailed before 2026-03-21, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 42 of 45 matches (93%) with a log-loss of 0.213 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.39 ± 0.26: an orderly event, more orderly than 84% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Boston College Eagles	1	10.40 school +0.37	Alex Lech / Aiesha Shekhar 3.36 Cody Roe / Sydney Lombard 3.23 Ryan Mcgauley / Emily Marlas 3.34 11–1 Ryan Mcgauley / Paige Roby 3.35 3–0	94%	14–1 (93%)	−0.2
2	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	2	9.40 school +0.20	Umi Noritake / Eva Ottenbreit 3.08 10–2 Leo Robillard / Ethan Martin 10–2 Sean Trudell / Noelle Sizemore 2.81 7–2 Kyle Reinecke / Noelle Sizemore 3.55 6–0 Kyle Reinecke / Eva Ottenbreit 3.62 3–0 Kyle Reinecke / Ethan Martin 3.67 3–0	79%	13–2 (87%)	+1.2
3	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	3	7.77 school +0.42, home +0.35	Scott Opert / Emery Strockbine 2.08 6–6 Max Kleha / Jaden Talay 2.22 6–0 Mats Braaten / Mary Govan 2.52 6–0 Max Kleha / Hattie Rigney 2.42 3–3 Mats Braaten / Elise Jones 2.54 0–6 Scott Opert / Elise Jones 2.18 3–0 Mats Braaten / Jaden Talay 2.41 3–0 Max Kleha / Mary Govan 2.42 0–3	53%	9–6 (60%)	+1.0
4	Dartmouth College Big Green	4	6.75 school +0.41	Will Eggena / Finn Cairns Turner Ryon / Sophie Menyhart 2.79 Harry Bryan / Lucia Duffy 2.11 2–7 Bradley Kirkpatrick / Abbie Deng 1.96 3–3	36%	5–10 (33%)	−0.4
5	Penn State University Nittany Lions	5	6.05 school −0.22	Barrett Lhamon / Ekaterina Kuzmenko 2.42 Claire Sullivan / Mac Fitzgerald 1.78 Joseph Murphy / Katie Loeper 2.01	23%	3–12 (20%)	−0.4
6	Fordham University Rams	6	5.52 school −0.06	Erickson Rankin / Ava Belli 2.11 Robert Upton / Emilia Murat 1.46 Luke Ondrey / Alana Shigekane 1.93	15%	1–14 (7%)	−1.2

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
2	U. S. Naval Academy	9.40	10.65	13–2	11.8	+1.26	1.1	22%
3	St. Mary's College of Maryland	7.77	8.36	9–6	8.0	+0.60	0.4	36%
4	Dartmouth College	6.75	6.56	5–10	5.4	−0.19	0.1	74%
1	Boston College	10.40	10.20	14–1	14.2	−0.20	0.0	80%
5	Penn State University	6.05	5.82	3–12	3.4	−0.23	0.1	75%
6	Fordham University	5.52	4.52	1–14	2.2	−1.00	0.8	93%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Kyle Reinecke	U. S. Naval Academy	3.55	6.55	12–0	11.3	≥+3.00	1.0	48%
Sean Trudell	U. S. Naval Academy	2.81	4.02	7–2	5.9	+1.21	0.9	25%
Umi Noritake	U. S. Naval Academy	3.08	4.26	10–2	9.0	+1.18	0.9	27%
Leo Robillard	U. S. Naval Academy	2.51	3.64	10–2	9.1	+1.13	0.7	30%
Max Kleha	St. Mary's College of Maryland	2.22	2.81	9–6	8.0	+0.60	0.4	36%
Mats Braaten	St. Mary's College of Maryland	2.52	3.12	9–6	8.0	+0.60	0.4	36%
Scott Opert	St. Mary's College of Maryland	2.08	2.68	9–6	8.0	+0.60	0.4	36%
Bradley Kirkpatrick	Dartmouth College	1.96	1.91	3–3	3.1	−0.05	0.0	70%
Will Eggena	Dartmouth College	1.43	1.24	5–10	5.4	−0.19	0.1	74%
Turner Ryon	Dartmouth College	2.79	2.59	5–10	5.4	−0.19	0.1	74%
Ryan Mcgauley	Boston College	3.34	3.13	14–1	14.2	−0.20	0.0	80%
Alex Lech	Boston College	3.36	3.16	14–1	14.2	−0.20	0.0	80%
Cody Roe	Boston College	3.23	3.03	14–1	14.2	−0.20	0.0	80%
Barrett Lhamon	Penn State University	2.42	2.19	3–12	3.4	−0.23	0.1	75%
Claire Sullivan	Penn State University	1.78	1.55	3–12	3.4	−0.23	0.1	75%
Joseph Murphy	Penn State University	2.01	1.78	3–12	3.4	−0.23	0.1	75%
Harry Bryan	Dartmouth College	2.11	1.74	2–7	2.3	−0.37	0.1	82%
Erickson Rankin	Fordham University	2.11	1.10	1–14	2.2	−1.00	0.8	93%
Robert Upton	Fordham University	1.46	0.46	1–14	2.2	−1.00	0.8	93%
Luke Ondrey	Fordham University	1.93	0.93	1–14	2.2	−1.00	0.8	93%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Dartmouth College	Fordham University	76%
1	2	Boston College	U. S. Naval Academy	85%
1	3	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Penn State University	84%
1	7	Boston College	Fordham University	99%
1	8	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Dartmouth College	74%
1	9	U. S. Naval Academy	Penn State University	97%
1	13	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Fordham University	90%
1	14	Boston College	Penn State University	99%
1	15	U. S. Naval Academy	Dartmouth College	93%
1	19	Boston College	St. Mary's College of Maryland	93%
1	20	Penn State University	Dartmouth College	32%	upset
1	21	U. S. Naval Academy	Fordham University	98%
1	25	Boston College	Dartmouth College	97%
1	26	U. S. Naval Academy	St. Mary's College of Maryland	89%
1	27	Fordham University	Penn State University	37%	upset
2	4	Dartmouth College	Fordham University	76%
2	5	Boston College	U. S. Naval Academy	84%
2	6	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Penn State University	85%
2	10	Boston College	Fordham University	99%
2	11	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Dartmouth College	74%
2	12	U. S. Naval Academy	Penn State University	97%
2	16	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Fordham University	90%
2	17	Boston College	Penn State University	99%
2	18	U. S. Naval Academy	Dartmouth College	93%
2	22	Boston College	St. Mary's College of Maryland	93%
2	23	Dartmouth College	Penn State University	68%
2	24	U. S. Naval Academy	Fordham University	98%
2	28	Boston College	Dartmouth College	97%
2	29	U. S. Naval Academy	St. Mary's College of Maryland	89%
2	30	Penn State University	Fordham University	63%
3	31	Dartmouth College	Fordham University	75%
3	32	U. S. Naval Academy	Boston College	17%	upset
3	33	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Penn State University	85%
3	34	Boston College	Fordham University	99%
3	35	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Dartmouth College	74%
3	36	U. S. Naval Academy	Penn State University	97%
3	37	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Fordham University	90%
3	38	Boston College	Penn State University	99%
3	39	U. S. Naval Academy	Dartmouth College	93%
3	40	Boston College	St. Mary's College of Maryland	93%
3	41	Dartmouth College	Penn State University	68%
3	42	U. S. Naval Academy	Fordham University	98%
3	43	Boston College	Dartmouth College	97%
3	44	U. S. Naval Academy	St. Mary's College of Maryland	89%
3	45	Penn State University	Fordham University	62%

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Eagles	Midshipmen	Seahawks	Green	Lions	Rams
Boston College Eagles	5–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	4–1	L	✕	W	W	W	W
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	3–2	L	L	✕	W	W	W
Dartmouth College Big Green	1–4	L	L	L	✕	L	W
Penn State University Nittany Lions	1–4	L	L	L	W	✕	L
Fordham University Rams	1–4	L	L	L	L	W	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	Eagles	Midshipmen	Seahawks	Green	Lions	Rams
Boston College Eagles	5–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	4–1	L	✕	W	W	W	W
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	3–2	L	L	✕	W	W	W
Dartmouth College Big Green	2–3	L	L	L	✕	W	W
Penn State University Nittany Lions	1–4	L	L	L	L	✕	W
Fordham University Rams	0–5	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 3

Team	Rec.	Eagles	Midshipmen	Seahawks	Green	Lions	Rams
Boston College Eagles	4–1	✕	L	W	W	W	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	5–0	W	✕	W	W	W	W
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	3–2	L	L	✕	W	W	W
Dartmouth College Big Green	2–3	L	L	L	✕	W	W
Penn State University Nittany Lions	1–4	L	L	L	L	✕	W
Fordham University Rams	0–5	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
2	Eagles	1-3-5	def.	Midshipmen	2-4-6
3	Seahawks	1-2-4	def.	Nittany Lions	3-5-6
7	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
8	Seahawks	2-3-4	def.	Big Green	1-5-6
9	Midshipmen	1-2-3	def.	Nittany Lions	4-5-6
13	Seahawks	2-3-4	def.	Rams	1-5-6
14	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Nittany Lions	3-4-6
15	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Big Green	3-4-6
19	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Seahawks	3-5-6
20	Nittany Lions	1-3-6	def.	Big Green	2-4-5
21	Midshipmen	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
25	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Big Green	3-5-6
26	Midshipmen	1-2-3	def.	Seahawks	4-5-6
27	Rams	2-3-4	def.	Nittany Lions	1-5-6
4	Big Green	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
5	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
6	Seahawks	1-2-3	def.	Nittany Lions	4-5-6
10	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
11	Seahawks	1-2-4	def.	Big Green	3-5-6
12	Midshipmen	1-2-4	def.	Nittany Lions	3-5-6
16	Seahawks	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
17	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Nittany Lions	3-4-6
18	Midshipmen	1-2-4	def.	Big Green	3-5-6
22	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
23	Big Green	1-2-3	def.	Nittany Lions	4-5-6
24	Midshipmen	2-3-4	def.	Rams	1-5-6
28	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Big Green	3-5-6
29	Midshipmen	1-2-4	def.	Seahawks	3-5-6
30	Nittany Lions	2-3-5	def.	Rams	1-4-6
31	Big Green	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
32	Midshipmen	2-3-5	def.	Eagles	1-4-6
33	Seahawks	1-3-4	def.	Nittany Lions	2-5-6
34	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
35	Seahawks	1-3-5	def.	Big Green	2-4-6
36	Midshipmen	1-2-3	def.	Nittany Lions	4-5-6
37	Seahawks	2-3-4	def.	Rams	1-5-6
38	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Nittany Lions	3-5-6
39	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Big Green	3-4-6
40	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Seahawks	4-5-6
41	Big Green	1-4-5	def.	Nittany Lions	2-3-6
42	Midshipmen	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
43	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Big Green	3-4-6
44	Midshipmen	1-2-3	def.	Seahawks	4-5-6
45	Nittany Lions	2-3-4	def.	Rams	1-5-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Boston College	Eagles	Alex Lech '28 Cody Roe '29 Ryan Mcgauley '27	Aiesha Shekhar '28 Sydney Lombard '29 Emily Marlas '26 Paige Roby '26
U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	Kyle Reinecke '28 Leo Robillard '29 Sean Trudell '28 Umi Noritake '28	Noelle Sizemore '29 Eva Ottenbreit '27 Ethan Martin '29
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	Mats Braaten '27 Max Kleha '25 Scott Opert '28	Jaden Talay '27 Mary Govan '27 Elise Jones '28 Hattie Rigney '26 Emery Strockbine '28
Dartmouth College	Big Green	Bradley Kirkpatrick '29 Harry Bryan '29 Turner Ryon '29 Will Eggena '27	Abbie Deng '29 Lucia Duffy '29 Sophie Menyhart '27 Finn Cairns '29
Penn State University	Nittany Lions	Barrett Lhamon '26 Claire Sullivan '29 Joseph Murphy '28	Ekaterina Kuzmenko '28 Mac Fitzgerald '28 Katie Loeper '29
Fordham University	Rams	Erickson Rankin '27 Luke Ondrey '29 Robert Upton '27	Ava Belli '28 Alana Shigekane '27 Emilia Murat '28

Conditions — 03/21/2026 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 62% · Pressure 1011.9 hPa

Temperature

62°F

↑ 66°F ↓ 52°F

Feels like 59°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

7.2 kn

avg · max 10.5 kn

Gusts to 23.9 kn

From N (358°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover9% Sunshine10.8 hrs Humidity62% Pressure1011.9 hPa

What this breeze does at St. Mary's — from fleet racing

Breeze: N about 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at St. Mary's in this breeze: a typical day (+0.00)

Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.00 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at St. Mary's by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (70 labelled fleet-race days at St. Mary's).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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