St. Mary's College of Maryland '28
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 63.13 percentile among ICSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.114 rating points from 21 races with rated skippers. Few races, so the estimate stays near the middle.
How crew ratings work →No season rating yet: needs 8+ crewed races in a season.
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.70 (fleet 2.38) | 253 of 331 | −0.02 ± 0.17 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 16–18 (47%) as crew 7–7 (50%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 | 2 | 9–10 | 1–1 |
| Spring 2025 | 2 | 7–8 | 6–6 |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 4 graded regattas (46 matches) the record is 22–24 against 23.5 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−1.5). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 2 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | Seahawk Team Race | skipper | 2.08 | 2.67 | 9–6 | 8.1 | +0.58 | 0.4 | 37% |
| 2026-03-07 | Bob Bavier Open Team Race | skipper | 2.12 | -0.88 | 0–4 | 0.2 | ≤−3.00 | 0.3 | >99% |
| 2025-03-29 | Pirate Team Racing | skipper | 1.92 | 1.20 | 7–8 | 8.6 | −0.72 | 0.8 | 93% |
| 2025-03-01 | Navy Team Race Invitiational | crew | 2.09 | 1.78 | 6–6 | 6.7 | −0.31 | 0.1 | 79% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2026 Team page Season | |||||
| Riley Cup | Skipper | B | 5 | 6.0 | 2.76 |
| Oyster Bowl Coed | Skipper | B | 14 | 9.9 | -0.07 |
| Intrepid Trophy - MAISA Match Race Championship Keelboat | Crew | A | 1 | 4.0 | — |
| Chesapeake Invitational | Skipper | C | 1 | 3.0 | — |
| The 35th Captain Hurst Bowl | Crew | A, B | 7 | 10.1 | -0.29 |
| Spring 2026 Team page Season | |||||
| Truxtun Umsted | Skipper | B | 14 | 9.3 | 2.85 |
| Seahawk Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 60% | — |
| Bob Bavier Open Team Race | Skipper | TR | 13 | 15% | — |
| Fall 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| Webb Woolum | Skipper | B | 8 | 4.8 | 0.23 |
| Riley Cup | Skipper | A | 13 | 8.4 | 2.38 |
| Spring 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| Pirate Team Racing | Skipper | TR | 15 | 47% | — |
| Owen Trophy | Skipper | B | 8 | 9.9 | 0.40 |
| Navy Team Race Invitiational | Crew | TR | 12 | 50% | — |
| Hanbury Trophy | Skipper | B | 9 | 8.9 | -0.62 |
| Fall 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| Washington College Fall Open | Skipper | B | 13 | 2.5 | 2.77 |
| Riley Cup | Skipper | B | 6 | 8.2 | 2.20 |
| Chesapeake Open | Skipper | B | 8 | 10.8 | 0.46 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Scott Opert |  Southern High School |
'24 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
