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Oyster Bowl Coed

Analysis
# SchoolTeam TOT
1 U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 153
2 University of Pennsylvania University of Pennsylvania Quakers 190
3 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 200
4 Fordham University Fordham University Rams 204
5 Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 226
6 Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Monarchs 235
7 St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 262
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 R14 TOT Sailors
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen B 1 1 8 1 6 4 11 1 12 6 1 5 1 10 68 Cole Fanchi '30
Scarlet Hanson '30
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen A 2 5 1 10 11 6 8 8 9 4 4 10 2 5 85 Umi Noritake '28
Ethan Martin '29
University of Pennsylvania University of Pennsylvania Quakers B 8 10 2 12 1 1 4 5 10 2 10 6 5 11 87 Ryan D’Orsi '30
Noelle Yuen '29
Fordham University Fordham University Rams B 6 8 11 5 3 10 7 4 6 11 14 8 4 1 98 Nathan Finkelstein '30
Nora Donahue '28
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen B 3 6 6 9 4 3 5 6 7 13 7 13 10 7 99 Jason Folvig '30
Bennett O'Keefe '27
Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas B 13 12 9 8 7 8 10 7 1 3 3 11 6 2 100 Conrad Cook '29
Lia Nafe '29
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen A 5 3 7 3 8 13 2 12 5 14 2 9 9 9 101 James Kopack '28
Jamie Mcguffee '29
University of Pennsylvania University of Pennsylvania Quakers A 14 2 14 13 2 9 6 10 11 1 6 1 11 3 103 Esme Gonzalez '28
Sadie Yoder '28
Fordham University Fordham University Rams A 9 11 10 14 12 2 1 3 14 7 5 2 12 4 106 Erickson Rankin '27
Isabela Hillmann '27
Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Monarchs B 10 7 12 4 13 5 12 2 3 8 11 7 13 6 113 David Karcher '30
Josie Brindley '30
Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Monarchs A 11 4 3 2 9 7 14 11 4 10 13 12 14 8 122 Stone Dewey '30
Morgan Auth '27
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks A 7 13 13 7 5 11 13 14 2 5 8 3 8 14 123 Davide Bazzoni '30
Elise Jones '28
Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas A 12 14 4 6 14 12 3 13 8 9 12 4 3 12 126 Jake Julien '28
Sophia Skrivanich '30
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks B 4 9 5 11 10 14 9 9 13 12 9 14 7 13 139 Scott Opert '28 [1-14]
Story Witenstein '28 [1-6, 13-14]
Mary Smith '29 [7-12]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.070+0.07
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2009 (19 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A11A12A
Fordham UniversityFordham University Rams222222222222
Georgetown UniversityGeorgetown University Hoyas333333333333
Hobart and William Smith CollegesHobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen444444444444
U. S. Naval AcademyU. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen777777777777
Old Dominion UniversityOld Dominion University Monarchs555555555555
University of PennsylvaniaUniversity of Pennsylvania Quakers888888888888
St. Mary's College of MarylandSt. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks666666666666

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B11B12B
Fordham UniversityFordham University Rams101010101010101010101010
Georgetown UniversityGeorgetown University Hoyas111111111111111111111111
Hobart and William Smith CollegesHobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen121212121212121212121212
U. S. Naval AcademyU. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen151515151515151515151515
Old Dominion UniversityOld Dominion University Monarchs131313131313131313131313
University of PennsylvaniaUniversity of Pennsylvania Quakers161616161616161616161616
St. Mary's College of MarylandSt. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks141414141414141414141414

Conditions — 10/10/2026 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 62%  ·  Pressure 1028.6 hPa

Temperature

66°F
↑ 71°F   ↓ 53°F
Feels like 64°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.0 kn
avg  ·  max 6.9 kn
Gusts to 14.4 kn
From NE (54°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover91% Sunshine2.9 hrs Humidity62% Pressure1028.6 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: no wind record for this regatta; the venue average is used
In this breeze at Georgetown: a typical day (−0.01)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment −0.12 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.12
Actual: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.56 ± 0.24)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Georgetown by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (27 labelled days at Georgetown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →