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Washington College Fall Open

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1 24 28 52
2 St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 42 32 74
3 U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 2 51 42 93
4 Washington College Washington College Shoremen 47 62 109
5 Princeton University Princeton University Tigers 90 52 142
6 Drexel University Drexel University Dragons 96 90 186
7 Loyola University Maryland Loyola University Maryland Greyhounds 91 96 187
8 University of Maryland/Baltimore County University of Maryland/Baltimore County Retrievers 125 97 222
9 Catholic University of America Catholic University of America Cardinals 114 129 243
10 University of Maryland University of Maryland Terps 128 124 252
11 St. John's College St. John's College Johnnies 117 150 267
12 University of Delaware University of Delaware Blue Hens 137 155 292
13 Syracuse University Syracuse University Orange 158 MRP 159 MRP 317 MRP
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 TOT Sailors
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1 2 1 4 1 1 2 1 3 1 1 2 1 4 24 Sean Trudell '28
Jaden Lobbia '28
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1 3 3 3 4 1 DSQ 1 3 4 1 3 1 42 Joseph Marynowski '28
Jaden Talay '27
Washington College Washington College Shoremen 4 2 2 4 3 3 3 5 4 2 5 8 2 47 Imogene Nuss '28
Lucy Sunderland '28
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 2 3 5 6 2 2 5 2 2 2 3 3 2 OCS 51 Logan Hayes '27
Molly Jethwa '28
Princeton University Princeton University Tigers 5 9 9 5 6 7 7 8 5 7 12 4 6 90 Evelyn Walsh '26
Kristine Roegner '28
Loyola University Maryland Loyola University Maryland Greyhounds 7 6 7 6 8 6 9 7 8 6 7 5 9 91 Luke Plecinoga '25 [1-13]
Robert Wills '26 [1-2, 5-6, 9-13]
Kyle Weaver '26 [3-4, 7-8]
Drexel University Drexel University Dragons 6 8 8 9 7 9 4 10 9 9 6 6 5 96 Nathaniel Adams '26 [1-8, 11-13]
Charlotte Shaw '26 [9-10]
Chris Bahr '26 [1-6]
Charlotte Shaw '26 [7-8, 11-13]
Nathaniel Adams '26 [9-10]
Catholic University of America Catholic University of America Cardinals 9 10 1 11 9 8 8 11 7 8 9 12 11 114 John Anthony Caraig '27
Faith Dickerson '25
St. John's College St. John's College Johnnies 10 11 10 8 12 12 6 6 12 12 4 7 7 117 Reagan Bottomley '26 [1-2]
Silas Hodges '27 [3-4, 7-8, 11-13]
August Bellanca '27 [5-6, 9-10]
Beatrice Crucs '28 [1-2, 7-8, 11-13]
Christiana Greer '28 [3-4, 9-10]
Nathaniel Watkins '27 [5-6]
University of Maryland/Baltimore County University of Maryland/Baltimore County Retrievers 11 4 11 7 10 10 10 12 10 10 11 9 10 125 John Tis '25
Grace Hartman '25
University of Maryland University of Maryland Terps DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 5 4 6 5 10 11 3 128 No Show [1-6, 13]
Eli Leopold '28 [7-8, 11-12]
Emma Retzlaff '25 [9-10]
No Show [1-6, 13]
Emma Retzlaff '25 [7-8, 11-12]
Eli Leopold '28 [9-10]
University of Delaware University of Delaware Blue Hens 8 7 5 10 5 4 DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 137 Ethan Deutsch '25
Ian Kaplan '25
Syracuse University Syracuse University Orange 12 12 12 12 11 11 11 9 11 11 8 10 8 158 MRP Finn Halstead '28
Molly Malone Tracy '27
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 TOT Sailors
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1 2 3 2 4 1 1 1 3 1 2 2 2 4 28 Robert Ziman '25
Alexander Brenia '26
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1 2 6 3 2 2 4 2 2 3 1 3 1 32 Scott Opert '28
Brooke Hayward '27
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 2 3 1 7 5 4 7 2 1 4 1 3 1 3 42 Linnea Forsberg '25
Eleanor Niehoff '26
Princeton University Princeton University Tigers 4 4 1 2 3 5 3 8 3 6 4 7 2 52 Eddie O’Keefe '25 [1-6]
Berkley Yiu '25 [7-13]
Ella Gonzalez '28 [1-6]
Washington College Washington College Shoremen 6 6 3 1 6 3 7 4 6 4 5 4 7 62 Austin Latimer '27
Nora Ciak '27
Drexel University Drexel University Dragons 5 8 4 7 9 6 6 10 7 7 7 5 9 90 Lucas Randle '28
Evelyn Carpenter '26
Loyola University Maryland Loyola University Maryland Greyhounds 8 5 8 8 5 8 8 7 8 5 10 8 8 96 Walker Aprill '26 [1-2, 5-8, 11-13]
Conner Sciullo '26 [3-4, 9-10]
Gavin Harris '27 [1-2, 7-8]
Owen Chabot '28 [3-4, 9-10]
Graydon Crabtree '28 [5-6, 11-13]
University of Maryland/Baltimore County University of Maryland/Baltimore County Retrievers 10 7 5 6 7 4 9 6 9 11 8 9 6 97 Henry Powell '26
Isabella Dongarra '25
University of Maryland University of Maryland Terps DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 5 5 5 8 6 6 5 124 No Show [1-6, 13]
Jared Cohen '25 [7-12]
No Show [1-6, 13]
Caroline Fuller '28 [7-10]
Rishi Vunnam '28 [11-12]
Catholic University of America Catholic University of America Cardinals 7 11 9 9 10 11 10 9 10 10 11 10 12 129 Christian Aron '27 [1-13]
John Mckenna '28 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Ana Sanchez '28 [3-4, 7-8, 11-13]
St. John's College St. John's College Johnnies 12 12 12 12 11 12 12 12 12 12 9 11 11 150 Lukas Walker '26 [1-2]
David Lowry '27 [3-4, 9-10]
Leo Schumwinger '28 [5-8, 11-13]
Evgeniia Nikonova '28 [1-2, 5-8, 11-13]
John “Jack” Busbice '27 [3-4]
Nathaniel Watkins '27 [9-10]
University of Delaware University of Delaware Blue Hens 9 9 11 11 8 9 DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 155 Brendan Van Riper '27
Tyler Needham '27
Syracuse University Syracuse University Orange 11 10 10 10 12 10 11 11 11 9 12 12 10 159 MRP Antonio Aaron '26 [1-7]
Emily Geraghty '27 [8-13]
Emily Geraghty '27 [1-7]
Antonio Aaron '26 [8-13]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.140+0.14
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2017 (17 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A11A12A13A
Catholic University of AmericaCatholic University of America Cardinals1133557799111113
University of DelawareUniversity of Delaware Blue Hens10101212113355779
Drexel UniversityDrexel University Dragons22446688101012121
Loyola University MarylandLoyola University Maryland Greyhounds33557799111113132
University of MarylandUniversity of Maryland Terps111113132244668810
University of Maryland/Baltimore CountyUniversity of Maryland/Baltimore County Retrievers1212113355779911
U. S. Naval AcademyU. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 188101012121133557
U. S. Naval AcademyU. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 299111113132244668
Princeton UniversityPrinceton University Tigers44668810101212113
St. John's CollegeSt. John's College Johnnies55779911111313224
St. Mary's College of MarylandSt. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks66881010121211335
Syracuse UniversitySyracuse University Orange77991111131322446
Washington CollegeWashington College Shoremen131322446688101012

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B11B12B13B
Catholic University of AmericaCatholic University of America Cardinals22446688101012121
University of DelawareUniversity of Delaware Blue Hens111113132244668810
Drexel UniversityDrexel University Dragons33557799111113132
Loyola University MarylandLoyola University Maryland Greyhounds44668810101212113
University of MarylandUniversity of Maryland Terps1212113355779911
University of Maryland/Baltimore CountyUniversity of Maryland/Baltimore County Retrievers131322446688101012
U. S. Naval AcademyU. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 199111113132244668
U. S. Naval AcademyU. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 210101212113355779
Princeton UniversityPrinceton University Tigers55779911111313224
St. John's CollegeSt. John's College Johnnies66881010121211335
St. Mary's College of MarylandSt. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks77991111131322446
Syracuse UniversitySyracuse University Orange88101012121133557
Washington CollegeWashington College Shoremen1133557799111113
School / Team SkipperCrew
Catholic University of America Catholic University of America John Anthony Caraig '27 Faith Dickerson '25
Cardinals Christian Aron '27 [1-13] John Mckenna '28 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Ana Sanchez '28 [3-4, 7-8, 11-13]
Drexel University Drexel University Nathaniel Adams '26 [1-8, 11-13]
Charlotte Shaw '26 [9-10]		 Chris Bahr '26 [1-6]
Charlotte Shaw '26 [7-8, 11-13]
Nathaniel Adams '26 [9-10]
Dragons Lucas Randle '28 Evelyn Carpenter '26
Loyola University Maryland Loyola University Maryland Luke Plecinoga '25 [1-13] Robert Wills '26 [1-2, 5-6, 9-13]
Kyle Weaver '26 [3-4, 7-8]
Greyhounds Walker Aprill '26 [1-2, 5-8, 11-13]
Conner Sciullo '26 [3-4, 9-10]		 Gavin Harris '27 [1-2, 7-8]
Owen Chabot '28 [3-4, 9-10]
Graydon Crabtree '28 [5-6, 11-13]
Princeton University Princeton University Evelyn Walsh '26 Kristine Roegner '28
Tigers Eddie O’Keefe '25 [1-6]
Berkley Yiu '25 [7-13]		 Ella Gonzalez '28 [1-6]
St. John's College St. John's College Reagan Bottomley '26 [1-2]
Silas Hodges '27 [3-4, 7-8, 11-13]
August Bellanca '27 [5-6, 9-10]		 Beatrice Crucs '28 [1-2, 7-8, 11-13]
Christiana Greer '28 [3-4, 9-10]
Nathaniel Watkins '27 [5-6]
Johnnies Lukas Walker '26 [1-2]
David Lowry '27 [3-4, 9-10]
Leo Schumwinger '28 [5-8, 11-13]		 Evgeniia Nikonova '28 [1-2, 5-8, 11-13]
John “Jack” Busbice '27 [3-4]
Nathaniel Watkins '27 [9-10]
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Joseph Marynowski '28 Jaden Talay '27
Seahawks Scott Opert '28 Brooke Hayward '27
Syracuse University Syracuse University Finn Halstead '28 Molly Malone Tracy '27
Orange Antonio Aaron '26 [1-7]
Emily Geraghty '27 [8-13]		 Emily Geraghty '27 [1-7]
Antonio Aaron '26 [8-13]
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Sean Trudell '28 Jaden Lobbia '28
Midshipmen 1 Robert Ziman '25 Alexander Brenia '26
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Logan Hayes '27 Molly Jethwa '28
Midshipmen 2 Linnea Forsberg '25 Eleanor Niehoff '26
University of Delaware University of Delaware Ethan Deutsch '25 Ian Kaplan '25
Blue Hens Brendan Van Riper '27 Tyler Needham '27
University of Maryland University of Maryland No Show [1-6, 13]
Eli Leopold '28 [7-8, 11-12]
Emma Retzlaff '25 [9-10]		 No Show [1-6, 13]
Emma Retzlaff '25 [7-8, 11-12]
Eli Leopold '28 [9-10]
Terps No Show [1-6, 13]
Jared Cohen '25 [7-12]		 No Show [1-6, 13]
Caroline Fuller '28 [7-10]
Rishi Vunnam '28 [11-12]
University of Maryland/Baltimore County University of Maryland/Baltimore County John Tis '25 Grace Hartman '25
Retrievers Henry Powell '26 Isabella Dongarra '25
Washington College Washington College Imogene Nuss '28 Lucy Sunderland '28
Shoremen Austin Latimer '27 Nora Ciak '27

Conditions — 10/12/2024 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 52%  ·  Pressure 1015.7 hPa

Temperature

69°F
↑ 75°F   ↓ 60°F
Feels like 67°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.2 kn
avg  ·  max 7.2 kn
Gusts to 16.3 kn
From WSW (240°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover7% Sunshine10.7 hrs Humidity52% Pressure1015.7 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 9 kn · S 11 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Washington College: a favourites’ day (+0.03)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.09 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.12
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.16 ± 0.08)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 3% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Washington College by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (17 labelled days at Washington College).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →