St. Mary's College of Maryland '28
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.65 (fleet 3.59) | 92 of 331 | +0.06 ± 0.17 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 40–20 (67%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 | 2 | 17–12 | — |
| Spring 2025 | 3 | 23–8 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 5 graded regattas (60 matches) the record is 40–20 against 36.6 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+3.4). 2 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 5 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-07 | Bob Bavier Open Team Race | skipper | 2.90 | 2.38 | 3–11 | 4.1 | −0.51 | 0.4 | 86% |
| 2026-02-28 | NA Open Team Race at SMC | skipper | 2.64 | 4.47 | 14–1 | 11.9 | +1.83 | 2.5 | 8% |
| 2025-03-22 | Admiral Moore Team Race | skipper | 2.17 | 1.99 | 12–2 | 12.1 | −0.19 | 0.0 | 80% |
| 2025-03-15 | Washington College Team Race | skipper | 1.96 | 4.96 | 5–0 | 4.7 | ≥+3.00 | 0.4 | 77% |
| 2025-03-01 | Navy Team Race Invitiational | skipper | 1.91 | 2.96 | 6–6 | 3.7 | +1.06 | 1.8 | 10% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2026 Team page Season | |||||
| Nevins Trophy | Skipper | B | 6 | 5.3 | 3.93 |
| Moody Trophy | Skipper | A | 11 | 5.9 | 3.49 |
| Chesapeake Open | Skipper | A | 7 | 3.6 | 3.45 |
| Spring 2026 Team page Season | |||||
| NA Open Team Race at SMC | Skipper | TR | 15 | 93% | — |
| Bob Bavier Open Team Race | Skipper | TR | 13 | 15% | — |
| America Trophy | Skipper | B | 4 | 4.2 | 4.37 |
| Fall 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| Oyster Bowl | Skipper | A | 8 | 7.1 | 3.09 |
| Nevins Trophy | Skipper | B | 4 | 6.2 | 4.03 |
| Chesapeake Open | Skipper | A | 9 | 6.3 | 2.05 |
| Charleston Fall Interconference | Skipper | B | 13 | 5.0 | 2.92 |
| Spring 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| Washington College Team Race | Skipper | TR | 5 | 100% | — |
| Owen Trophy | Skipper | B | 9 | 5.9 | 2.05 |
| Navy Team Race Invitiational | Skipper | TR | 12 | 50% | — |
| Admiral’s Cup | Skipper | B | 12 | 8.0 | 2.88 |
| Admiral Moore Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 86% | — |
| Fall 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| Washington College Fall Open | Skipper | A | 12 | 2.3 | 2.21 |
| Chesapeake Open | Skipper | B | 14 | 13.6 | 0.99 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
