NA Open Team Race at SMC

HostSt. Mary's
Date02/28/2026
TypeRegional
BoatFJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	14–1
2	U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	13–2
3	University of Pennsylvania	Quakers	5–10
4	Penn State University	Nittany Lions	5–10
5	Fordham University	Rams	5–10
6	Princeton University	Tigers	3–12

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 28,305 team race matches sailed before 2026-02-28, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 34 of 45 matches (76%) with a log-loss of 0.419 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness −0.10 ± 0.26: a typical event, more orderly than 32% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	2	8.20 school +0.36, home +0.36	Max Kleha / Hattie Rigney 2.30 Mats Braaten / Elise Jones 2.40 Joseph Marynowski / Haley Temme 2.66	79%	14–1 (93%)	+2.2
2	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	1	8.84 school +0.18	Teddy Martin / Jessica Green 2.97 Umi Noritake / Haley Kloepfer 3.15 10–2 Ava Farley / Eleanor Niehoff 2.32 9–0 Robert Richards / Molly Jethwa 7–2	90%	13–2 (87%)	−0.5
3	University of Pennsylvania Quakers	3	6.23 school +0.16	Ian Lent / Amelia Lazarus 2.79 Esme Gonzalez / Janet Fu 1.91 Sadie Yoder / Lucy Lukens	44%	5–10 (33%)	−1.6
4	Penn State University Nittany Lions	5	5.97 school −0.12	Barrett Lhamon / Ekaterina Kuzmenko 2.31 Claire Sullivan / Otto Slade Joseph Murphy / Katie Loeper 1.90	39%	5–10 (33%)	−0.8
5	Fordham University Rams	4	6.12 school +0.08	Erickson Rankin / Ava Belli Luke Ondrey / Campbell Carr Mira Herlihy / Alana Shigekane 2.20	43%	5–10 (33%)	−1.4
6	Princeton University Tigers	6	3.73 school −0.20	Logan Mraz / Skyler Marnik William Roberts / Rana Tuttle 0.81 Alex Wszolek / Larkin Macosko	6%	3–12 (20%)	+2.2

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
1	St. Mary's College of Maryland	8.20	10.14	14–1	11.8	+1.94	2.8	7%
6	Princeton University	3.73	5.28	3–12	0.8	+1.55	2.8	4%
2	U. S. Naval Academy	8.84	8.45	13–2	13.5	−0.39	0.2	83%
4	Penn State University	5.97	5.57	5–10	5.8	−0.40	0.2	82%
5	Fordham University	6.12	5.48	5–10	6.4	−0.64	0.6	90%
3	University of Pennsylvania	6.23	5.48	5–10	6.6	−0.76	0.9	93%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Ava Farley	U. S. Naval Academy	2.32	5.32	9–0	8.5	≥+3.00	0.8	57%
Max Kleha	St. Mary's College of Maryland	2.30	4.24	14–1	11.8	+1.94	2.8	7%
Mats Braaten	St. Mary's College of Maryland	2.40	4.34	14–1	11.8	+1.94	2.8	7%
Joseph Marynowski	St. Mary's College of Maryland	2.66	4.60	14–1	11.8	+1.94	2.8	7%
Logan Mraz	Princeton University	2.12	3.67	3–12	0.8	+1.55	2.8	4%
William Roberts	Princeton University	0.81	2.36	3–12	0.8	+1.55	2.8	4%
Alex Wszolek	Princeton University	0.71	2.26	3–12	0.8	+1.55	2.8	4%
Teddy Martin	U. S. Naval Academy	2.97	2.58	13–2	13.5	−0.39	0.2	83%
Barrett Lhamon	Penn State University	2.31	1.91	5–10	5.8	−0.40	0.2	82%
Claire Sullivan	Penn State University	1.65	1.25	5–10	5.8	−0.40	0.2	82%
Joseph Murphy	Penn State University	1.90	1.50	5–10	5.8	−0.40	0.2	82%
Erickson Rankin	Fordham University	1.97	1.33	5–10	6.4	−0.64	0.6	90%
Luke Ondrey	Fordham University	1.61	0.96	5–10	6.4	−0.64	0.6	90%
Mira Herlihy	Fordham University	2.20	1.55	5–10	6.4	−0.64	0.6	90%
Robert Richards	U. S. Naval Academy	2.78	2.11	7–2	7.8	−0.66	0.4	90%
Umi Noritake	U. S. Naval Academy	3.15	2.43	10–2	10.8	−0.72	0.5	91%
Ian Lent	University of Pennsylvania	2.79	2.03	5–10	6.6	−0.76	0.9	93%
Esme Gonzalez	University of Pennsylvania	1.91	1.16	5–10	6.6	−0.76	0.9	93%
Sadie Yoder	University of Pennsylvania	1.23	0.47	5–10	6.6	−0.76	0.9	93%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	U. S. Naval Academy	Princeton University	99%
1	2	Penn State University	Fordham University	47%	upset
1	3	St. Mary's College of Maryland	University of Pennsylvania	88%
1	4	Fordham University	Princeton University	92%
1	5	U. S. Naval Academy	University of Pennsylvania	93%
1	6	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Penn State University	91%
1	7	University of Pennsylvania	Princeton University	93%
1	8	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Fordham University	89%
1	9	U. S. Naval Academy	Penn State University	96%
1	10	Fordham University	University of Pennsylvania	46%	upset
1	11	St. Mary's College of Maryland	U. S. Naval Academy	27%	upset
1	12	Penn State University	Princeton University	90%
1	13	U. S. Naval Academy	Fordham University	91%
1	14	University of Pennsylvania	Penn State University	57%
1	15	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Princeton University	99%
2	16	U. S. Naval Academy	Princeton University	99%
2	17	Penn State University	Fordham University	46%	upset
2	18	St. Mary's College of Maryland	University of Pennsylvania	88%
2	19	Princeton University	Fordham University	8%	upset
2	20	U. S. Naval Academy	University of Pennsylvania	92%
2	21	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Penn State University	90%
2	22	Princeton University	University of Pennsylvania	8%	upset
2	23	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Fordham University	89%
2	24	U. S. Naval Academy	Penn State University	96%
2	25	Fordham University	University of Pennsylvania	48%	upset
2	26	St. Mary's College of Maryland	U. S. Naval Academy	27%	upset
2	27	Penn State University	Princeton University	90%
2	28	U. S. Naval Academy	Fordham University	90%
2	29	University of Pennsylvania	Penn State University	56%
2	30	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Princeton University	99%
3	31	U. S. Naval Academy	Princeton University	99%
3	32	Penn State University	Fordham University	46%	upset
3	33	St. Mary's College of Maryland	University of Pennsylvania	88%
3	34	Fordham University	Princeton University	91%
3	35	U. S. Naval Academy	University of Pennsylvania	92%
3	36	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Penn State University	90%
3	37	University of Pennsylvania	Princeton University	92%
3	38	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Fordham University	88%
3	39	U. S. Naval Academy	Penn State University	96%
3	40	Fordham University	University of Pennsylvania	48%	upset
3	41	U. S. Naval Academy	St. Mary's College of Maryland	73%
3	42	Princeton University	Penn State University	10%	upset
3	43	U. S. Naval Academy	Fordham University	90%
3	44	University of Pennsylvania	Penn State University	56%
3	45	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Princeton University	99%

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Seahawks	Midshipmen	Quakers	Lions	Rams	Tigers
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	5–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	4–1	L	✕	W	W	W	W
University of Pennsylvania Quakers	2–3	L	L	✕	W	L	W
Penn State University Nittany Lions	2–3	L	L	L	✕	W	W
Fordham University Rams	2–3	L	L	W	L	✕	W
Princeton University Tigers	0–5	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	Seahawks	Midshipmen	Quakers	Lions	Rams	Tigers
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	5–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	4–1	L	✕	W	W	W	W
University of Pennsylvania Quakers	1–4	L	L	✕	W	L	L
Penn State University Nittany Lions	2–3	L	L	L	✕	W	W
Fordham University Rams	1–4	L	L	W	L	✕	L
Princeton University Tigers	2–3	L	L	W	L	W	✕

Round 3

Team	Rec.	Seahawks	Midshipmen	Quakers	Lions	Rams	Tigers
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	4–1	✕	L	W	W	W	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	5–0	W	✕	W	W	W	W
University of Pennsylvania Quakers	2–3	L	L	✕	W	L	W
Penn State University Nittany Lions	1–4	L	L	L	✕	W	L
Fordham University Rams	2–3	L	L	W	L	✕	W
Princeton University Tigers	1–4	L	L	L	W	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Midshipmen	1-2-3	def.	Tigers	4-5-6
2	Nittany Lions	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
3	Seahawks	1-2-3	def.	Quakers	4-5-6
4	Rams	1-2-6	def.	Tigers	3-4-5
5	Midshipmen	1-2-4	def.	Quakers	3-5-6
6	Seahawks	1-2-5	def.	Nittany Lions	3-4-6
7	Quakers	1-2-3	def.	Tigers	4-5-6
8	Seahawks	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
9	Midshipmen	1-2-3	def.	Nittany Lions	4-5-6
10	Rams	1-2-5	def.	Quakers	3-4-6
11	Seahawks	1-2-6	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-5
12	Nittany Lions	1-4-5	def.	Tigers	2-3-6
13	Midshipmen	2-3-4	def.	Rams	1-5-6
14	Quakers	1-2-6	def.	Nittany Lions	3-4-5
15	Seahawks	1-2-4	def.	Tigers	3-5-6
16	Midshipmen	1-2-3	def.	Tigers	4-5-6
17	Nittany Lions	1-2-6	def.	Rams	3-4-5
18	Seahawks	1-2-3	def.	Quakers	4-5-6
19	Tigers	1-3-4	def.	Rams	2-5-6
20	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Quakers	3-4-6
21	Seahawks	1-2-5	def.	Nittany Lions	3-4-6
22	Tigers	1-3-6	def.	Quakers	2-4-5
23	Seahawks	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
24	Midshipmen	1-2-3	def.	Nittany Lions	4-5-6
25	Rams	1-2-6	def.	Quakers	3-4-5
26	Seahawks	2-3-4	def.	Midshipmen	1-5-6
27	Nittany Lions	1-2-4	def.	Tigers	3-5-6
28	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
29	Quakers	1-4-5	def.	Nittany Lions	2-3-6
30	Seahawks	1-2-4	def.	Tigers	3-5-6
31	Midshipmen	1-2-4	def.	Tigers	3-5-6
32	Nittany Lions	1-3-4	def.	Rams	2-5-6
33	Seahawks	2-3-5	def.	Quakers	1-4-6
34	Rams	1-2-4	def.	Tigers	3-5-6
35	Midshipmen	1-2-3	def.	Quakers	4-5-6
36	Seahawks	1-2-4	def.	Nittany Lions	3-5-6
37	Quakers	1-3-4	def.	Tigers	2-5-6
38	Seahawks	1-3-6	def.	Rams	2-4-5
39	Midshipmen	1-2-3	def.	Nittany Lions	4-5-6
40	Rams	1-3-5	def.	Quakers	2-4-6
41	Midshipmen	1-3-5	def.	Seahawks	2-4-6
42	Tigers	1-3-5	def.	Nittany Lions	2-4-6
43	Midshipmen	1-2-6	def.	Rams	3-4-5
44	Quakers	1-2-3	def.	Nittany Lions	4-5-6
45	Seahawks	1-2-4	def.	Tigers	3-5-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	Joseph Marynowski '28 Mats Braaten '27 Max Kleha '25	Haley Temme '29 Elise Jones '28 Hattie Rigney '26
U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	Ava Farley '26 Robert Richards '29 Teddy Martin '27 Umi Noritake '28	Eleanor Niehoff '26 Molly Jethwa '28 Jessica Green '29 Haley Kloepfer '29
University of Pennsylvania	Quakers	Esme Gonzalez '28 Ian Lent '28 Sadie Yoder '28	Janet Fu '27 Amelia Lazarus '29 Lucy Lukens '28
Penn State University	Nittany Lions	Barrett Lhamon '26 Claire Sullivan '29 Joseph Murphy '28	Ekaterina Kuzmenko '28 Otto Slade '27 Katie Loeper '29
Fordham University	Rams	Erickson Rankin '27 Luke Ondrey '29 Mira Herlihy '28	Ava Belli '28 Campbell Carr '29 Alana Shigekane '27
Princeton University	Tigers	Alex Wszolek '29 Logan Mraz '29 William Roberts '26	Larkin Macosko '28 Skyler Marnik '29 Rana Tuttle '29

Conditions — 02/28/2026 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 66% · Pressure 1018.6 hPa

Temperature

46°F

↑ 54°F ↓ 31°F

Feels like 42°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

2.9 kn

avg · max 6.2 kn

Gusts to 14.2 kn

From ESE (115°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover0% Sunshine10.0 hrs Humidity66% Pressure1018.6 hPa

What this breeze does at St. Mary's — from fleet racing

Breeze: SE about 6 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at St. Mary's in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.07)

Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.07 means a rating gap counts about 6% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at St. Mary's by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (70 labelled fleet-race days at St. Mary's).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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