University of Pennsylvania '28
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.48 (fleet 3.52) | 131 of 328 | −0.07 ± 0.17 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 16–22 (42%) as crew 12–10 (55%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 | 5 | 15–22 | 0–2 |
| Spring 2025 | 3 | 1–0 | 12–8 |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 4 graded regattas (53 matches) the record is 23–30 against 23.6 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−0.6). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 3 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 4 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-28 | The Lynn Marchiando Trophy Team Race-2026 | skipper | 2.83 | 2.41 | 6–12 | 7.3 | −0.41 | 0.4 | 84% |
| 2026-02-28 | NA Open Team Race at SMC | skipper | 2.79 | 2.03 | 5–10 | 6.6 | −0.76 | 0.9 | 93% |
| 2025-03-15 | Graham Hall Team Race | crew | 3.13 | 0.77 | 1–2 | 1.5 | −2.37 | 0.7 | >99% |
| 2025-03-08 | John Jackson Memorial Regatta | crew | 2.87 | 3.76 | 11–6 | 8.2 | +0.89 | 1.8 | 10% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2026 Team page Season | |||||
| KP Dinghy Open Invite | Skipper | B | 9 | 5.6 | 2.01 |
| Jack Boehringer '52 Open Invite | Skipper | A | 1 | 1.0 | — |
| Danmark Trophy | Skipper | B | 5 | 13.8 | 2.70 |
| Spring 2026 Team page Season | |||||
| Truxtun Umsted | Skipper | B | 14 | 5.2 | 3.97 |
| NA Open Team Race at SMC | Skipper | TR | 15 | 33% | — |
| The Lynn Marchiando Trophy Team Race-2026 | Skipper | TR | 18 | 33% | — |
| KP Open Team Race | Skipper | TR | 9 | 78% | — |
| ICSA Open Team Race National Championship | Skipper | TR | 15 | 47% | — |
| Graham Hall Team Race | Crew | TR | 20 | 40% | — |
| Fall 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| Oyster Bowl | Skipper | A | 8 | 4.4 | 4.09 |
| Open Atlantic Coast Championship Finals | Crew | B | 2 | 5.0 | — |
| Nevins Trophy | Skipper | B | 2 | 9.0 | 3.23 |
| KP Open Invite | Skipper | B | 4 | 8.5 | 1.63 |
| Jack Boehringer '52 Open Invite | Skipper | B | 11 | 6.8 | 1.45 |
| Spring 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| KP Open Team Race | Skipper | TR | 17 | 47% | — |
| John Jackson Memorial Regatta | Crew | TR | 17 | 65% | — |
| Graham Hall Team Race | Crew | TR | 15 | 53% | — |
| Fall 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| Oyster Bowl | Skipper | B | 8 | 11.6 | -0.01 |
| Jesuit Invite | Skipper | C | 14 | 2.7 | 2.08 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
