| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Tufts University | Jumbos | 9–0 |
| 2 |  |
University of Pennsylvania | Quakers | 7–2 |
| 3 |  |
St. Mary's College of Maryland | Seahawks | 7–2 |
| 4 |  |
University of Miami | Hurricanes | 6–3 |
| 5 |  |
Hobart and William Smith Colleges | Statesmen | 5–4 |
| 6 |  |
Bowdoin College | Polar Bears | 4–5 |
| 7 |  |
Jacksonville University | Fins | 3–6 |
| 8 |  |
Christopher Newport University | Captains | 2–7 |
| 9 |  |
Cornell University | Big Red | 2–7 |
| 10 |  |
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy | Mariners | 0–9 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 29,369 team race matches sailed before 2026-03-21, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 39 of 45 matches (87%) with a log-loss of 0.314 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.47 ± 0.30: an orderly event, more orderly than 91% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tufts University | 10.40 | 13.40 | 9–0 | 7.1 | ≥+3.00 | 3.1 | 10% |
| 2 | University of Pennsylvania | 9.74 | 10.33 | 7–2 | 6.2 | +0.58 | 0.3 | 40% |
| 8 | Christopher Newport University | 6.30 | 6.76 | 2–7 | 1.7 | +0.45 | 0.1 | 55% |
| 4 | University of Miami | 9.19 | 9.62 | 6–3 | 5.4 | +0.43 | 0.2 | 47% |
| 3 | St. Mary's College of Maryland | 10.26 | 10.34 | 7–2 | 6.9 | +0.08 | 0.0 | 65% |
| 6 | Bowdoin College | 8.60 | 8.64 | 4–5 | 3.9 | +0.04 | 0.0 | 63% |
| 5 | Hobart and William Smith Colleges | 9.68 | 8.84 | 5–4 | 6.2 | −0.84 | 0.7 | 93% |
| 7 | Jacksonville University | 8.72 | 7.81 | 3–6 | 4.2 | −0.91 | 0.8 | 93% |
| 9 | Cornell University | 7.77 | 6.78 | 2–7 | 3.2 | −0.98 | 0.8 | 94% |
| 10 | U. S. Merchant Marine Academy | 4.37 | 1.37 | 0–9 | 0.3 | ≤−3.00 | 0.4 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | Jumbos | Quakers | Seahawks | Hurricanes | Statesmen | Bears | Fins | Captains | Red | Mariners | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tufts University Jumbos | 9–0 | ✕ | W | W | W | W | W | W | W | W | W |
| University of Pennsylvania Quakers | 7–2 | L | ✕ | W | W | W | W | W | W | L | W |
| St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks | 7–2 | L | L | ✕ | W | W | W | W | W | W | W |
| University of Miami Hurricanes | 6–3 | L | L | L | ✕ | W | W | W | W | W | W |
| Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen | 5–4 | L | L | L | L | ✕ | W | W | W | W | W |
| Bowdoin College Polar Bears | 4–5 | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ | W | W | W | W |
| Jacksonville University Fins | 3–6 | L | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ | W | W | W |
| Christopher Newport University Captains | 2–7 | L | L | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ | W | W |
| Cornell University Big Red | 2–7 | L | W | L | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ | W |
| U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners | 0–9 | L | L | L | L | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Fins | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Mariners | 3-4-5 |
| 2 | |
Quakers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Statesmen | 4-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Big Red | 3-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Jumbos | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Captains | 4-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Hurricanes | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Polar Bears | 4-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Statesmen | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Fins | 3-4-5 |
| 7 | |
Big Red | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Mariners | 3-4-6 |
| 8 | |
Quakers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Captains | 4-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Seahawks | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Hurricanes | 1-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Jumbos | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Polar Bears | 2-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Statesmen | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Big Red | 4-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Fins | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Captains | 3-4-6 |
| 13 | |
Hurricanes | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Mariners | 3-4-6 |
| 14 | |
Jumbos | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Quakers | 3-4-5 |
| 15 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Polar Bears | 4-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Captains | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Big Red | 4-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Hurricanes | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Statesmen | 1-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Jumbos | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Fins | 3-4-6 |
| 19 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Mariners | 4-5-6 |
| 20 | |
Quakers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Polar Bears | 3-4-6 |
| 21 | |
Hurricanes | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Captains | 3-5-6 |
| 22 | |
Jumbos | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Big Red | 3-5-6 |
| 23 | |
Seahawks | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Statesmen | 1-5-6 |
| 24 | |
Quakers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Fins | 4-5-6 |
| 25 | |
Polar Bears | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Mariners | 3-4-6 |
| 26 | |
Jumbos | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Hurricanes | 3-4-5 |
| 27 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Captains | 4-5-6 |
| 28 | |
Big Red | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Quakers | 2-4-5 |
| 29 | |
Statesmen | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Mariners | 4-5-6 |
| 30 | |
Polar Bears | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Fins | 1-5-6 |
| 31 | |
Jumbos | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Seahawks | 1-5-6 |
| 32 | |
Quakers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Hurricanes | 3-4-5 |
| 33 | |
Captains | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Mariners | 3-5-6 |
| 34 | |
Fins | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Big Red | 3-5-6 |
| 35 | |
Statesmen | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Polar Bears | 3-5-6 |
| 36 | |
Quakers | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Seahawks | 1-5-6 |
| 37 | |
Jumbos | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Mariners | 4-5-6 |
| 38 | |
Hurricanes | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Fins | 2-5-6 |
| 39 | |
Statesmen | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Captains | 3-4-6 |
| 40 | |
Polar Bears | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Big Red | 2-5-6 |
| 41 | |
Quakers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Mariners | 3-5-6 |
| 42 | |
Seahawks | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Fins | 2-4-6 |
| 43 | |
Jumbos | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Statesmen | 3-5-6 |
| 44 | |
Hurricanes | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Big Red | 2-5-6 |
| 45 | |
Polar Bears | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Captains | 1-5-6 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 2% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
