Graham Hall Team Race

HostNavy
Date03/14/2026
TypeCross Regional
Boat420/FJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Harvard University	Crimson	21–2
2	Roger Williams University	Hawks	18–5
3	College of Charleston	Cougars	15–8
4	Georgetown University	Hoyas	14–9
5	Stanford University	Cardinal	13–7
6	U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	12–8
7	Brown University	Bears	15–5
8	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	10–10
9	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Statesmen	8–12
10	University of Miami	Hurricanes	8–12
11	University of Pennsylvania	Quakers	8–12
12	George Washington University	Revolutionaries	5–15
13	Old Dominion University	Monarchs	6–12
14	Fordham University	Rams	4–14
15	Cornell University	Big Red	4–14
16	Christopher Newport University	Captains	1–17

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 28,966 team race matches sailed before 2026-03-14, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 127 of 162 matches (78%) with a log-loss of 0.408 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.04 ± 0.15: a typical event, more orderly than 47% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Harvard University Crimson	1	13.11 school +0.26	Robby Meek / Jacob Posner 4.05 20–2 Mitchell Callahan / Rosella Irfan 4.26 18–2 Justin Callahan / Christina Chen 4.62 11–1 Justin Callahan / Aidan Pesce 4.46 8–1 Mitchell Callahan / Christina Chen 4.17 3–0 Justin Callahan / Xavier Ayala Vermont 4.43 2–0 Robby Meek / Aidan Pesce 3.95 1–0	87%	21–2 (91%)	+1.1
2	Roger Williams University Hawks	5	11.88 school +0.39	Oliver Stokke / Carter Sheehan 3.38 Carlos De Castro / Addyson Fisher 4.29 12–3 Kyle Pfrang / Jed Lory 3.92 11–3 Carlos De Castro / Jed Lory 4.29 6–2 Kyle Pfrang / Jakub Fuja 3.70 6–2 Jed Lory / Kyle Pfrang 3.06 1–0	65%	18–5 (78%)	+2.9
3	College of Charleston Cougars	6	11.45 school +0.40	Benjamin Dufour / Clara Murphy 3.85 11–6 Noah Zittrer / Aidan Iaconis 3.77 11–4 Charlie Allen / Andrea Melnik 3.41 7–3 Noah Zittrer / Andrea Melnik 3.79 4–4 Charlie Allen / Malia Deane 3.51 4–4 Benjamin Dufour / Ty Ryan 3.86 4–2 Charlie Allen / Jack Bolton 3.18 4–1	57%	15–8 (65%)	+1.9
4	Georgetown University Hoyas	8	11.13 school +0.23	Peter Barnard / Teddy Stoldt 3.46 13–9 Peter Herlihy / Scarlett Harris 3.73 7–6 Enzo Menditto / Vaughn Slatoff 3.67 8–4 Enzo Menditto / Margot Gordon 3.76 6–5 Peter Herlihy / Margot Gordon 3.72 6–3 Benjamin Smith / Abigail Chang 3.11 1–0 Peter Herlihy / Irene Lin 3.48 1–0	52%	14–9 (61%)	+1.9
5	Stanford University Cardinal	3	12.13 school +0.36	Vanessa Lahrkamp / Alice Schmid 4.42 6–5 Reade Decker / Amiya Stroumza 3.67 6–5 Lucas Woodworth / Caroline Geiger 3.64 3–6 Vanessa Lahrkamp / Sophie Fisher 4.31 4–2 Reade Decker / Alice Schmid 3.91 4–2 Freddie Parkin / Caroline Geiger 3.56 5–1 Sophie Fisher / Caroline Geiger 3.77 3–0 Sophie Fisher / Alice Schmid 3.96 3–0 Freddie Parkin / Amiya Stroumza 3.51 2–0 Vanessa Lahrkamp / Caroline Geiger 4.23 2–0 Lucas Woodworth / Amiya Stroumza 3.62 1–0	73%	13–7 (65%)	−1.7
6	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	4	12.02 school +0.20, home +0.38	Henry Allgeier / Fiona Cullen 3.77 10–8 Nathan Smith / Ellie Alex 4.00 4–5 Jack Welburn / Darby Graham 3.70 4–5 Jack Welburn / Ellie Alex 3.70 6–3 Nathan Smith / Ethan Martin 3.89 6–1 Nathan Smith / Owen Macwilliams 4.02 2–2 Henry Allgeier / Spencer Dominguez 3.69 2–0 Jack Welburn / Fiona Cullen 3.66 2–0	70%	12–8 (60%)	−2.1
7	Brown University Bears	2	12.09 school +0.30	Blake Behrens / Caroline Keeffe-Jones 4.02 14–5 Guthrie Braun / Vera Allen 4.33 13–5 Cam Spriggs / Phoebe Fogarty 3.50 5–2 Cam Spriggs / Dominic Ciccimaro 3.44 5–2 James Brock / Phoebe Fogarty 3.69 5–1 Noah Stapleton / Dominic Ciccimaro 3.46 2–0 Noah Stapleton / Vera Allen 3.59 1–0	82%	15–5 (75%)	−1.5
8	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	7	10.33 school +0.43	Nathan Jensen / Brooke Bertrand 3.34 Raam Fox / Emily Shioutakon 3.18 5–6 Landon Cormie / Cash Espinoza 3.31 5–6 Raam Fox / Jane Wright 3.18 3–4 Landon Cormie / Emily Shioutakon 3.41 3–4 Raam Fox / Cash Espinoza 3.07 2–0 Landon Cormie / Walker Brescia 3.35 2–0	54%	10–10 (50%)	−0.8
9	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	10	9.75 school +0.18	James Kopack / Laura Therien 2.85 Juan Carlos Lacerda Jones / Olivia Wilkins 3.38 5–7 Jj Klempen / Cooper Delbridge 3.23 5–6 Jj Klempen / Stella Kim 3.43 3–6 Juan Carlos Lacerda Jones / Jamie Mcguffee 3.33 2–5 Juan Carlos Lacerda Jones / Sam Carson 3.33 1–0	44%	8–12 (40%)	−0.8
10	University of Miami Hurricanes	14	8.69 school +0.35	David Webb / Isaac Van Buren 2.27 7–11 Steven Hardee / Graceanna Dixon 3.29 5–10 William Stratton / Christopher Mccollum 2.62 4–5 William Stratton / Lanee Imperato 2.61 1–5 Steven Hardee / Christopher Mccollum 3.44 3–2 William Stratton / Jadin Gonzalez 2.69 3–2 David Webb / Lanee Imperato 2.20 1–1	26%	8–12 (40%)	+2.7
11	University of Pennsylvania Quakers	9	9.96 school +0.17	Jackson Mcaliley / Adra Ivancich 3.47 8–11 Drew D’Orsi / Eva Gonzalez-Whitehouse 3.06 8–10 Cole Woodworth / Manuel Campos 3.26 6–10 Cole Woodworth / Noelle Yuen 3.29 1–2 Drew D’Orsi / Ian Lent 2.96 0–2 Jackson Mcaliley / Kingsley Burch 3.21 0–1 Ian Lent / Noelle Yuen 2.77 1–0	49%	8–12 (40%)	−1.8
12	George Washington University Revolutionaries	15	8.24	Tyler Wood / Caitlyn Schwartz 3.07 Jedidiah Bechtel / Adrian Atwater 2.58 Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia / Frank Wildi 2.49	20%	5–15 (25%)	+0.9
13	Old Dominion University Monarchs	12	8.53 school +0.33	Blake Goodwin / Cadence Goodnight 2.82 6–11 Diogo Silva / James O’Leary 2.60 3–7 Pierce Brindley / Caspian Collett 2.57 3–7 Diogo Silva / Lindsey Kaufmann 2.95 3–5 Pierce Brindley / Madison Bivins 2.56 3–5 Blake Goodwin / Lindsey Kaufmann 2.83 0–1	30%	6–12 (33%)	+0.5
14	Fordham University Rams	13	8.47	Patrick Shachoy / Caroline Newton 2.74 2–9 Lucas Thress / Parker Keeffe-Jones 2.71 2–7 Jacob Zils / Andalucia Pilcher 3.15 2–7 Jacob Zils / Brendan Sheeran 3.03 2–6 Lucas Thress / Ashley Abboud 2.74 2–6 Patrick Shachoy / Andalucia Pilcher 2.72 2–4 Patrick Shachoy / Brendan Sheeran 2.61 0–1 Erickson Rankin / Andalucia Pilcher 2.10 0–1 Erickson Rankin / Ava Belli 2.12 0–1	30%	4–14 (22%)	−1.5
15	Cornell University Big Red	11	8.80 school −0.08	Winborne Majette / Marcus Greco 3.27 3–12 Ava Gustafson / Emil Damji 2.51 3–10 Gilda Dondona / Beylen Gode 2.94 2–8 Gilda Dondona / Anna Iacobucci 3.09 2–6 Ava Gustafson / Laine Reshefsky 2.60 1–4 Winborne Majette / Laine Reshefsky 3.31 1–2	34%	4–14 (22%)	−2.2
16	Christopher Newport University Captains	16	6.14 school −0.20	Aston Atherton / Braden Silveria 1.89 Joshua Bendura / Hannah Louise Roethel 2.27 Grace Watlington / Noah Hubbard 1.96 1–13 Grace Watlington / Berend Vandermeer 2.06 0–4	4%	1–17 (6%)	+0.2

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
10	University of Miami	8.69	9.67	8–12	5.3	+0.98	2.0	8%
2	Roger Williams University	11.88	12.75	18–5	15.0	+0.87	1.8	10%
4	Georgetown University	11.13	11.67	14–9	12.1	+0.53	0.8	22%
1	Harvard University	13.11	13.64	21–2	19.9	+0.53	0.4	37%
3	College of Charleston	11.45	11.94	15–8	13.1	+0.49	0.7	24%
12	George Washington University	8.24	8.62	5–15	4.1	+0.38	0.3	37%
16	Christopher Newport University	6.14	6.38	1–17	0.8	+0.24	0.0	57%
13	Old Dominion University	8.53	8.75	6–12	5.5	+0.22	0.1	49%
9	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	9.75	9.48	8–12	8.8	−0.26	0.1	77%
8	St. Mary's College of Maryland	10.33	10.06	10–10	10.8	−0.27	0.1	78%
5	Stanford University	12.13	11.57	13–7	14.7	−0.56	0.7	90%
11	University of Pennsylvania	9.96	9.34	8–12	9.8	−0.62	0.8	91%
7	Brown University	12.09	11.46	15–5	16.5	−0.62	0.7	91%
6	U. S. Naval Academy	12.02	11.33	12–8	14.1	−0.68	1.0	93%
14	Fordham University	8.47	7.78	4–14	5.5	−0.69	0.7	91%
15	Cornell University	8.80	7.80	4–14	6.2	−1.00	1.5	96%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Sophie Fisher	Stanford University	3.77	6.77	6–0	5.7	≥+3.00	0.4	72%
Noah Stapleton	Brown University	3.46	6.46	3–0	2.9	≥+3.00	0.1	90%
Steven Hardee	University of Miami	3.29	4.28	8–12	5.3	+0.98	2.0	8%
David Webb	University of Miami	2.27	3.25	8–12	5.3	+0.98	2.0	8%
William Stratton	University of Miami	2.62	3.60	8–12	5.3	+0.98	2.0	8%
Carlos De Castro	Roger Williams University	4.29	5.16	18–5	15.0	+0.87	1.8	10%
Oliver Stokke	Roger Williams University	3.38	4.25	18–5	15.0	+0.87	1.8	10%
Kyle Pfrang	Roger Williams University	3.92	4.78	17–5	14.1	+0.86	1.8	10%
Freddie Parkin	Stanford University	3.56	4.34	7–1	6.3	+0.79	0.4	45%
Enzo Menditto	Georgetown University	3.67	4.20	14–9	12.1	+0.53	0.8	22%
Peter Herlihy	Georgetown University	3.73	4.27	14–9	12.1	+0.53	0.8	22%
Robby Meek	Harvard University	4.05	4.59	21–2	19.9	+0.53	0.4	37%
Mitchell Callahan	Harvard University	4.26	4.79	21–2	19.9	+0.53	0.4	37%
Justin Callahan	Harvard University	4.62	5.15	21–2	19.9	+0.53	0.4	37%
Peter Barnard	Georgetown University	3.46	3.99	13–9	11.1	+0.53	0.7	22%
Charlie Allen	College of Charleston	3.41	3.90	15–8	13.1	+0.49	0.7	24%
Benjamin Dufour	College of Charleston	3.85	4.34	15–8	13.1	+0.49	0.7	24%
Noah Zittrer	College of Charleston	3.77	4.26	15–8	13.1	+0.49	0.7	24%
Tyler Wood	George Washington University	3.07	3.46	5–15	4.1	+0.38	0.3	37%
Jedidiah Bechtel	George Washington University	2.58	2.97	5–15	4.1	+0.38	0.3	37%
Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia	George Washington University	2.49	2.88	5–15	4.1	+0.38	0.3	37%
Aston Atherton	Christopher Newport University	1.89	2.13	1–17	0.8	+0.24	0.0	57%
Grace Watlington	Christopher Newport University	1.96	2.20	1–17	0.8	+0.24	0.0	57%
Joshua Bendura	Christopher Newport University	2.27	2.51	1–17	0.8	+0.24	0.0	57%
Diogo Silva	Old Dominion University	2.60	2.82	6–12	5.5	+0.22	0.1	49%
Blake Goodwin	Old Dominion University	2.82	3.04	6–12	5.5	+0.22	0.1	49%
Pierce Brindley	Old Dominion University	2.57	2.79	6–12	5.5	+0.22	0.1	49%
Juan Carlos Lacerda Jones	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	3.38	3.12	8–12	8.8	−0.26	0.1	77%
Jj Klempen	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	3.23	2.96	8–12	8.8	−0.26	0.1	77%
James Kopack	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	2.85	2.59	8–12	8.8	−0.26	0.1	77%
Raam Fox	St. Mary's College of Maryland	3.18	2.91	10–10	10.8	−0.27	0.1	78%
Landon Cormie	St. Mary's College of Maryland	3.31	3.04	10–10	10.8	−0.27	0.1	78%
Nathan Jensen	St. Mary's College of Maryland	3.34	3.07	10–10	10.8	−0.27	0.1	78%
Cam Spriggs	Brown University	3.50	3.06	10–4	10.8	−0.44	0.3	84%
Vanessa Lahrkamp	Stanford University	4.42	3.84	12–7	13.7	−0.58	0.7	91%
Reade Decker	Stanford University	3.67	3.06	10–7	11.8	−0.61	0.8	91%
Jackson Mcaliley	University of Pennsylvania	3.47	2.85	8–12	9.8	−0.62	0.8	91%
Drew D’Orsi	University of Pennsylvania	3.06	2.44	8–12	9.8	−0.62	0.8	91%
Blake Behrens	Brown University	4.02	3.39	14–5	15.5	−0.63	0.7	91%
Cole Woodworth	University of Pennsylvania	3.26	2.62	7–12	8.8	−0.65	0.8	92%
Lucas Thress	Fordham University	2.71	2.05	4–13	5.4	−0.66	0.6	90%
Nathan Smith	U. S. Naval Academy	4.00	3.32	12–8	14.1	−0.68	1.0	93%
Henry Allgeier	U. S. Naval Academy	3.77	3.09	12–8	14.1	−0.68	1.0	93%
Jack Welburn	U. S. Naval Academy	3.70	3.02	12–8	14.1	−0.68	1.0	93%
Jacob Zils	Fordham University	3.15	2.46	4–13	5.5	−0.69	0.7	91%
Patrick Shachoy	Fordham University	2.74	2.05	4–14	5.5	−0.69	0.7	91%
Guthrie Braun	Brown University	4.33	3.64	13–5	14.6	−0.70	0.8	92%
Ava Gustafson	Cornell University	2.51	1.51	4–14	6.2	−1.00	1.5	96%
Winborne Majette	Cornell University	3.27	2.27	4–14	6.2	−1.00	1.5	96%
Gilda Dondona	Cornell University	2.94	1.95	4–14	6.2	−1.00	1.5	96%
James Brock	Brown University	3.69	2.48	5–1	5.6	−1.21	0.6	96%
Lucas Woodworth	Stanford University	3.64	2.26	4–6	6.5	−1.38	2.5	99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Harvard University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	94%
1	2	Roger Williams University	Georgetown University	69%
1	3	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Christopher Newport University	98%
1	4	University of Miami	University of Pennsylvania	19%	upset
1	5	Brown University	U. S. Naval Academy	52%
1	6	College of Charleston	Stanford University	34%	upset
1	7	George Washington University	Fordham University	43%	upset
1	8	Cornell University	Old Dominion University	56%
1	9	Harvard University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	96%
1	10	Roger Williams University	University of Pennsylvania	88%
1	11	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Christopher Newport University	99%
1	12	Georgetown University	University of Miami	92%
1	13	Brown University	George Washington University	98%
1	14	Stanford University	Old Dominion University	98%
1	15	U. S. Naval Academy	Fordham University	99%
1	16	College of Charleston	Cornell University	93%
1	17	Harvard University	Christopher Newport University	100%
1	18	Roger Williams University	University of Miami	97%
1	19	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Brown University	11%	upset
1	20	Georgetown University	Stanford University	27%	upset
1	21	U. S. Naval Academy	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	90%
1	22	College of Charleston	University of Pennsylvania	81%
1	23	Harvard University	Fordham University	99%
1	24	Roger Williams University	Cornell University	97%
1	25	St. Mary's College of Maryland	George Washington University	89%
1	26	Georgetown University	Old Dominion University	94%
1	27	Brown University	Christopher Newport University	100%
1	28	University of Miami	Stanford University	3%	upset
1	29	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Fordham University	77%
1	30	University of Pennsylvania	Cornell University	79%
1	31	U. S. Naval Academy	Harvard University	25%	upset
1	32	Roger Williams University	College of Charleston	58%
1	33	Christopher Newport University	George Washington University	11%	upset
1	34	University of Miami	Old Dominion University	60%
1	35	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Fordham University	85%
1	36	Georgetown University	Cornell University	92%
1	37	Brown University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	92%
1	38	Stanford University	University of Pennsylvania	93%
1	39	Harvard University	George Washington University	99%
1	40	Roger Williams University	Old Dominion University	97%
1	41	Fordham University	Christopher Newport University	92%
1	42	University of Miami	Cornell University	52%
1	43	U. S. Naval Academy	St. Mary's College of Maryland	82%
1	44	College of Charleston	Georgetown University	51%
1	45	George Washington University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	19%	upset
1	46	University of Pennsylvania	Old Dominion University	83%
1	47	Harvard University	Brown University	69%
1	48	Roger Williams University	Stanford University	38%	upset
1	49	U. S. Naval Academy	Christopher Newport University	100%
1	50	College of Charleston	University of Miami	92%
1	51	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	65%
1	52	Georgetown University	University of Pennsylvania	77%
1	53	Brown University	Fordham University	95%
1	54	Stanford University	Cornell University	97%
1	55	U. S. Naval Academy	George Washington University	98%
1	56	College of Charleston	Old Dominion University	95%
1	57	Roger Williams University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	83%
1	58	Harvard University	University of Miami	99%
1	59	Georgetown University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	81%
1	60	Brown University	University of Pennsylvania	89%
1	61	Fordham University	Cornell University	43%	upset
1	62	U. S. Naval Academy	Old Dominion University	97%
1	63	Roger Williams University	George Washington University	95%
1	64	Stanford University	Christopher Newport University	100%
1	65	College of Charleston	St. Mary's College of Maryland	76%
1	66	Harvard University	Georgetown University	89%
1	67	University of Miami	Fordham University	51%
1	68	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	University of Pennsylvania	42%	upset
1	69	Roger Williams University	Brown University	40%	upset
1	70	Stanford University	George Washington University	96%
1	71	U. S. Naval Academy	Cornell University	97%
1	72	Old Dominion University	Christopher Newport University	91%
1	73	Georgetown University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	69%
1	74	University of Pennsylvania	Fordham University	88%
1	75	Roger Williams University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	89%
1	76	Harvard University	Stanford University	72%
1	77	Brown University	College of Charleston	65%
1	78	Cornell University	Christopher Newport University	93%
1	79	Old Dominion University	George Washington University	55%
1	80	U. S. Naval Academy	University of Miami	97%
1	81	Georgetown University	Fordham University	93%
1	82	St. Mary's College of Maryland	University of Pennsylvania	57%
1	83	College of Charleston	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	80%
1	84	Brown University	Cornell University	97%
1	85	Harvard University	Old Dominion University	99%
1	86	Stanford University	U. S. Naval Academy	52%
1	87	University of Miami	Christopher Newport University	92%
1	88	Roger Williams University	Fordham University	97%
1	89	University of Pennsylvania	George Washington University	86%
1	90	Georgetown University	Brown University	27%	upset
1	91	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Cornell University	84%
1	92	College of Charleston	U. S. Naval Academy	37%	upset
1	93	Stanford University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	92%
1	94	Roger Williams University	Harvard University	23%	upset
1	95	George Washington University	University of Miami	40%	upset
1	96	University of Pennsylvania	Christopher Newport University	96%
1	97	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Old Dominion University	85%
1	98	College of Charleston	Fordham University	95%
1	99	Cornell University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	28%	upset
1	100	Roger Williams University	U. S. Naval Academy	48%	upset
1	101	Stanford University	Brown University	49%	upset
1	102	Georgetown University	Christopher Newport University	99%
1	103	College of Charleston	George Washington University	96%
1	104	Harvard University	University of Pennsylvania	96%
1	105	University of Miami	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	24%	upset
1	106	Old Dominion University	Fordham University	51%
1	107	Stanford University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	86%
1	108	U. S. Naval Academy	Georgetown University	70%
1	109	College of Charleston	Christopher Newport University	100%
1	110	Harvard University	Cornell University	99%
1	111	Brown University	University of Miami	97%
1	112	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Old Dominion University	76%
1	113	Stanford University	Fordham University	97%
1	114	Georgetown University	George Washington University	95%
1	115	Roger Williams University	Christopher Newport University	100%
1	116	U. S. Naval Academy	University of Pennsylvania	88%
1	117	Harvard University	College of Charleston	84%
1	118	St. Mary's College of Maryland	University of Miami	85%
1	119	Brown University	Old Dominion University	95%
1	120	George Washington University	Cornell University	35%	upset
4	126	Old Dominion University	Cornell University	44%	upset
4	132	Fordham University	Cornell University	43%	upset
4	138	Cornell University	Christopher Newport University	93%
4	144	Old Dominion University	Fordham University	51%
4	150	Old Dominion University	Christopher Newport University	90%
4	153	Fordham University	Christopher Newport University	90%
4	157	Harvard University	College of Charleston	84%
4	158	Georgetown University	Roger Williams University	32%	upset
4	159	Harvard University	Roger Williams University	77%
4	160	College of Charleston	Georgetown University	52%
4	161	College of Charleston	Roger Williams University	42%	upset
4	162	Harvard University	Georgetown University	89%
6	121	Harvard University	College of Charleston	84%
6	122	Roger Williams University	U. S. Naval Academy	48%	upset
6	123	Stanford University	Georgetown University	73%
6	124	University of Pennsylvania	University of Miami	78%
6	125	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	St. Mary's College of Maryland	35%	upset
6	127	Roger Williams University	College of Charleston	58%
6	128	Harvard University	Stanford University	71%
6	129	Georgetown University	U. S. Naval Academy	30%	upset
6	130	Brown University	George Washington University	98%
6	131	University of Miami	St. Mary's College of Maryland	15%	upset
6	133	College of Charleston	Stanford University	33%	upset
6	134	Roger Williams University	Georgetown University	69%
6	135	Harvard University	U. S. Naval Academy	75%
6	136	University of Pennsylvania	George Washington University	85%
6	137	Brown University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	92%
6	139	Stanford University	Roger Williams University	62%
6	140	Harvard University	Georgetown University	89%
6	141	U. S. Naval Academy	College of Charleston	63%
6	142	St. Mary's College of Maryland	George Washington University	89%
6	143	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	University of Miami	76%
6	145	Harvard University	Roger Williams University	77%
6	146	Stanford University	U. S. Naval Academy	53%
6	147	Georgetown University	College of Charleston	48%	upset
6	148	Brown University	University of Pennsylvania	89%
6	149	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	George Washington University	81%
6	151	University of Pennsylvania	St. Mary's College of Maryland	43%	upset
6	152	Brown University	University of Miami	97%
6	154	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	University of Pennsylvania	42%	upset
6	155	George Washington University	University of Miami	39%	upset
6	156	Brown University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	88%

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Crimson	Hawks	Cougars	Hoyas	Cardinal	Midshipmen	Bears	Seahawks	Statesmen	Hurricanes	Quakers	Revolutionaries	Monarchs	Rams	Red	Captains
Harvard University Crimson	13–2	✕	L	W	W	W	L	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Roger Williams University Hawks	15–0	W	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
College of Charleston Cougars	12–3	L	L	✕	W	W	W	L	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Georgetown University Hoyas	11–4	L	L	L	✕	W	L	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Stanford University Cardinal	10–5	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	L	W	W	W	W	W	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	11–4	W	L	L	W	L	✕	L	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Brown University Bears	10–5	L	L	W	L	L	W	✕	L	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	9–6	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	4–11	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	L	W	L	W	W	L	W
University of Miami Hurricanes	7–8	L	L	L	L	W	L	L	L	W	✕	W	L	W	W	W	W
University of Pennsylvania Quakers	5–10	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W
George Washington University Revolutionaries	4–11	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	W	L	✕	L	W	W	L
Old Dominion University Monarchs	3–12	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	✕	W	L	W
Fordham University Rams	2–13	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W
Cornell University Big Red	3–12	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	L	L	W	L	✕	W
Christopher Newport University Captains	1–14	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	L	L	✕

Round 4

Team	Rec.	Crimson	Hawks	Cougars	Hoyas	Monarchs	Rams	Red	Captains
Harvard University Crimson	3–0	✕	W	W	W	–	–	–	–
Roger Williams University Hawks	0–3	L	✕	L	L	–	–	–	–
College of Charleston Cougars	2–1	L	W	✕	W	–	–	–	–
Georgetown University Hoyas	1–2	L	W	L	✕	–	–	–	–
Old Dominion University Monarchs	3–0	–	–	–	–	✕	W	W	W
Fordham University Rams	2–1	–	–	–	–	L	✕	W	W
Cornell University Big Red	1–2	–	–	–	–	L	L	✕	W
Christopher Newport University Captains	0–3	–	–	–	–	L	L	L	✕

Round 6

Team	Rec.	Crimson	Hawks	Cougars	Hoyas	Cardinal	Midshipmen	Bears	Seahawks	Statesmen	Hurricanes	Quakers	Revolutionaries
Harvard University Crimson	5–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W	–	–	–	–	–	–
Roger Williams University Hawks	3–2	L	✕	W	W	L	W	–	–	–	–	–	–
College of Charleston Cougars	1–4	L	L	✕	L	W	L	–	–	–	–	–	–
Georgetown University Hoyas	2–3	L	L	W	✕	L	W	–	–	–	–	–	–
Stanford University Cardinal	3–2	L	W	L	W	✕	W	–	–	–	–	–	–
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	1–4	L	L	W	L	L	✕	–	–	–	–	–	–
Brown University Bears	5–0	–	–	–	–	–	–	✕	W	W	W	W	W
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	1–4	–	–	–	–	–	–	L	✕	L	L	L	W
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	4–1	–	–	–	–	–	–	L	W	✕	W	W	W
University of Miami Hurricanes	1–4	–	–	–	–	–	–	L	W	L	✕	L	L
University of Pennsylvania Quakers	3–2	–	–	–	–	–	–	L	W	L	W	✕	W
George Washington University Revolutionaries	1–4	–	–	–	–	–	–	L	L	L	W	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
2	Hawks	1-2-6	def.	Hoyas	3-4-5
3	Statesmen	1-4-5	def.	Captains	2-3-6
4	Hurricanes	2-3-4	def.	Quakers	1-5-6
5	Bears	1-4-5	def.	Midshipmen	2-3-6
6	Cougars	1-2-6	def.	Cardinal	3-4-5
7	Revolutionaries	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
8	Big Red	2-3-4	def.	Monarchs	1-5-6
9	Crimson	1-2-4	def.	Statesmen	3-5-6
10	Hawks	1-2-6	def.	Quakers	3-4-5
11	Seahawks	1-2-4	def.	Captains	3-5-6
12	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Hurricanes	3-4-6
13	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Revolutionaries	3-4-5
14	Cardinal	1-2-6	def.	Monarchs	3-4-5
15	Midshipmen	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
16	Cougars	2-3-4	def.	Big Red	1-5-6
17	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Captains	4-5-6
18	Hawks	1-2-6	def.	Hurricanes	3-4-5
19	Seahawks	2-3-4	def.	Bears	1-5-6
20	Hoyas	1-3-4	def.	Cardinal	2-5-6
21	Midshipmen	1-2-4	def.	Statesmen	3-5-6
22	Cougars	1-2-4	def.	Quakers	3-5-6
23	Crimson	2-3-4	def.	Rams	1-5-6
24	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Big Red	3-4-6
25	Seahawks	2-3-4	def.	Revolutionaries	1-5-6
26	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Monarchs	4-5-6
27	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Captains	4-5-6
28	Hurricanes	1-3-6	def.	Cardinal	2-4-5
29	Statesmen	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
30	Quakers	1-2-5	def.	Big Red	3-4-6
31	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Crimson	3-4-6
32	Hawks	1-3-5	def.	Cougars	2-4-6
33	Captains	2-3-4	def.	Revolutionaries	1-5-6
34	Hurricanes	1-3-5	def.	Monarchs	2-4-6
35	Seahawks	2-3-4	def.	Rams	1-5-6
36	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Big Red	4-5-6
37	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Statesmen	4-5-6
38	Cardinal	2-3-4	def.	Quakers	1-5-6
39	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Revolutionaries	4-5-6
40	Hawks	2-3-5	def.	Monarchs	1-4-6
41	Rams	1-2-5	def.	Captains	3-4-6
42	Hurricanes	1-4-6	def.	Big Red	2-3-5 RAF
43	Midshipmen	1-3-5	def.	Seahawks	2-4-6
44	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Hoyas	4-5-6
45	Revolutionaries	2-3-4	def.	Statesmen	1-5-6
46	Quakers	2-3-4	def.	Monarchs	1-5-6
47	Crimson	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
48	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Cardinal	3-4-6
49	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Captains	3-4-6
50	Cougars	1-2-4	def.	Hurricanes	3-5-6
51	Seahawks	1-4-5	def.	Statesmen	2-3-6 RAF
52	Hoyas	2-3-4	def.	Quakers	1-5-6
53	Bears	2-3-4	def.	Rams	1-5-6
54	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Big Red	3-5-6
55	Midshipmen	1-2-3	def.	Revolutionaries	4-5-6 DNS,DNS
56	Cougars	1-2-4	def.	Monarchs	3-5-6
57	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Seahawks	4-5-6
58	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Hurricanes	4-5-6
59	Hoyas	1-2-4	def.	Statesmen	3-5-6
60	Bears	1-4-5	def.	Quakers	2-3-6
61	Rams	1-2-5	def.	Big Red	3-4-6
62	Midshipmen	2-3-5	def.	Monarchs	1-4-6
63	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Revolutionaries	4-5-6 DNF
64	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Captains	3-5-6
65	Cougars	1-3-5	def.	Seahawks	2-4-6
66	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Hoyas	4-5-6
67	Hurricanes	1-3-6	def.	Rams	2-4-5
68	Statesmen	1-2-6	def.	Quakers	3-4-5
69	Hawks	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
70	Cardinal	1-3-4	def.	Revolutionaries	2-5-6 DNS
71	Midshipmen	1-2-4	def.	Big Red	3-5-6
72	Monarchs	1-2-4	def.	Captains	3-5-6
73	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Seahawks	4-5-6
74	Quakers	2-3-4	def.	Rams	1-5-6
75	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Statesmen	4-5-6
76	Crimson	1-2-4	def.	Cardinal	3-5-6
77	Bears	1-3-4	def.	Cougars	2-5-6
78	Big Red	1-2-4	def.	Captains	3-5-6
79	Monarchs	1-4-5	def.	Revolutionaries	2-3-6
80	Midshipmen	1-2-6	def.	Hurricanes	3-4-5
81	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
82	Seahawks	1-2-4	def.	Quakers	3-5-6
83	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Statesmen	3-4-6
84	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Big Red	3-5-6
85	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Monarchs	4-5-6
86	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
87	Hurricanes	1-2-5	def.	Captains	3-4-6
88	Hawks	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
89	Quakers	1-2-4	def.	Revolutionaries	3-5-6
90	Hoyas	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
91	Seahawks	1-3-4	def.	Big Red	2-5-6
92	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
93	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Statesmen	4-5-6
94	Hawks	1-2-4	def.	Crimson	3-5-6
95	Revolutionaries	1-2-4	def.	Hurricanes	3-5-6
96	Quakers	1-2-4	def.	Captains	3-5-6
97	Seahawks	1-3-5	def.	Monarchs	2-4-6
98	Cougars	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
99	Big Red	2-3-4	def.	Statesmen	1-5-6
100	Hawks	1-2-6	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-5
101	Cardinal	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
102	Hoyas	1-2-4	def.	Captains	3-5-6
103	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Revolutionaries	4-5-6
104	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Quakers	4-5-6
105	Hurricanes	1-2-6	def.	Statesmen	3-4-5
106	Monarchs	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
107	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Seahawks	4-5-6
108	Midshipmen	1-2-3	def.	Hoyas	4-5-6
109	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Captains	4-5-6
110	Crimson	1-2-6	def.	Big Red	3-4-5
111	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Hurricanes	3-4-6
112	Statesmen	1-2-3	def.	Monarchs	4-5-6
113	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
114	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Revolutionaries	4-5-6
115	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Captains	3-4-6
116	Midshipmen	1-2-4	def.	Quakers	3-5-6
117	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Cougars	3-4-6
118	Seahawks	1-2-5	def.	Hurricanes	3-4-6
119	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Monarchs	3-4-6
120	Revolutionaries	2-3-4	def.	Big Red	1-5-6
126	Monarchs	1-3-4	def.	Big Red	2-5-6
132	Rams	1-2-4	def.	Big Red	3-5-6
138	Big Red	1-3-4	def.	Captains	2-5-6
144	Monarchs	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
150	Monarchs	1-2-3	def.	Captains	4-5-6
153	Rams	1-2-6	def.	Captains	3-4-5
157	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Cougars	3-4-6
158	Hoyas	1-3-6	def.	Hawks	2-4-5
159	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Hawks	3-4-6
160	Cougars	1-2-6	def.	Hoyas	3-4-5
161	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Hawks	4-5-6
162	Crimson	1-3-4	def.	Hoyas	2-5-6
121	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Cougars	4-5-6
122	Hawks	1-2-6	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-5
123	Cardinal	1-2-6	def.	Hoyas	3-4-5
124	Quakers	1-2-6	def.	Hurricanes	3-4-5
125	Statesmen	1-2-4	def.	Seahawks	3-5-6
127	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Cougars	3-4-6
128	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Cardinal	3-4-6
129	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Midshipmen	4-5-6
130	Bears	1-3-5	def.	Revolutionaries	2-4-6
131	Hurricanes	1-3-6	def.	Seahawks	2-4-5
133	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Cardinal	3-4-6
134	Hawks	2-3-4	def.	Hoyas	1-5-6
135	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Midshipmen	4-5-6
136	Quakers	1-2-3	def.	Revolutionaries	4-5-6
137	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Statesmen	4-5-6
139	Cardinal	1-3-4	def.	Hawks	2-5-6
140	Crimson	1-2-4	def.	Hoyas	3-5-6
141	Midshipmen	1-4-5	def.	Cougars	2-3-6
142	Seahawks	1-2-4	def.	Revolutionaries	3-5-6
143	Statesmen	2-3-4	def.	Hurricanes	1-5-6
145	Crimson	1-2-6	def.	Hawks	3-4-5
146	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
147	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Cougars	3-4-5
148	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Quakers	4-5-6
149	Statesmen	1-2-6	def.	Revolutionaries	3-4-5
151	Quakers	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
152	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Hurricanes	3-5-6
154	Statesmen	1-2-6	def.	Quakers	3-4-5
155	Revolutionaries	1-2-3	def.	Hurricanes	4-5-6
156	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Harvard University	Crimson	Justin Callahan '26 Mitchell Callahan '26 Robby Meek '27	Aidan Pesce '26 Christina Chen '27 Xavier Ayala Vermont '27 Rosella Irfan '27 Jacob Posner '29
Roger Williams University	Hawks	Carlos De Castro '26 Jed Lory '27 Kyle Pfrang '26 Oliver Stokke '26	Addyson Fisher '27 Jed Lory '27 Kyle Pfrang '26 Jakub Fuja '27 Carter Sheehan '27
College of Charleston	Cougars	Benjamin Dufour '26 Charlie Allen '28 Noah Zittrer '26	Clara Murphy '27 Ty Ryan '26 Malia Deane '29 Andrea Melnik '27 Jack Bolton '27 Aidan Iaconis '26
Georgetown University	Hoyas	Benjamin Smith '26 Enzo Menditto '26 Peter Barnard '27 Peter Herlihy '29	Abigail Chang '28 Vaughn Slatoff '26 Margot Gordon '26 Teddy Stoldt '28 Scarlett Harris '28 Irene Lin '29
Stanford University	Cardinal	Freddie Parkin '29 Lucas Woodworth '27 Reade Decker '27 Sophie Fisher '26 Vanessa Lahrkamp '26	Caroline Geiger '28 Amiya Stroumza '28 Alice Schmid '27 Sophie Fisher '26
U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	Henry Allgeier '27 Jack Welburn '26 Nathan Smith '26	Fiona Cullen '27 Spencer Dominguez '27 Ellie Alex '26 Darby Graham '26 Ethan Martin '29 Owen Macwilliams '28
Brown University	Bears	Blake Behrens '27 Cam Spriggs '27 Guthrie Braun '26 James Brock '28 Noah Stapleton '29	Caroline Keeffe-Jones '26 Phoebe Fogarty '29 Dominic Ciccimaro '29 Vera Allen '27
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	Landon Cormie '27 Nathan Jensen '27 Raam Fox '26	Emily Shioutakon '26 Cash Espinoza '29 Walker Brescia '28 Brooke Bertrand '26 Jane Wright '28
Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Statesmen	James Kopack '28 Jj Klempen '27 Juan Carlos Lacerda Jones '26	Laura Therien '26 Stella Kim '27 Cooper Delbridge '26 Jamie Mcguffee '29 Olivia Wilkins '28 Sam Carson '28
University of Miami	Hurricanes	David Webb '28 Steven Hardee '26 William Stratton '29	Isaac Van Buren '28 Lanee Imperato '29 Christopher Mccollum '28 Graceanna Dixon '29 Jadin Gonzalez '28
University of Pennsylvania	Quakers	Cole Woodworth '26 Drew D’Orsi '28 Ian Lent '28 Jackson Mcaliley '27	Noelle Yuen '29 Manuel Campos '29 Eva Gonzalez-Whitehouse '26 Ian Lent '28 Adra Ivancich '26 Kingsley Burch '29
George Washington University	Revolutionaries	Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia '26 Jedidiah Bechtel '26 Tyler Wood '26	Frank Wildi '29 Adrian Atwater '28 Caitlyn Schwartz '28
Old Dominion University	Monarchs	Blake Goodwin '27 Diogo Silva '26 Pierce Brindley '28	Cadence Goodnight '26 Lindsey Kaufmann '26 James O’Leary '29 Madison Bivins '29 Caspian Collett '29
Fordham University	Rams	Erickson Rankin '27 Jacob Zils '27 Lucas Thress '26 Patrick Shachoy '28	Ava Belli '28 Andalucia Pilcher '28 Brendan Sheeran '26 Parker Keeffe-Jones '28 Ashley Abboud '26 Caroline Newton '27
Cornell University	Big Red	Ava Gustafson '28 Gilda Dondona '28 Winborne Majette '27	Emil Damji '29 Laine Reshefsky '28 Anna Iacobucci '29 Beylen Gode '29 Marcus Greco '28
Christopher Newport University	Captains	Aston Atherton '26 Grace Watlington '26 Joshua Bendura '26	Braden Silveria '28 Noah Hubbard '26 Berend Vandermeer '27 Hannah Louise Roethel '28

Conditions — 03/14/2026 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 28% · Pressure 1019.9 hPa

Temperature

54°F

↑ 58°F ↓ 48°F

Feels like 45°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

8.9 kn

avg · max 11.5 kn

Gusts to 25.9 kn

From WNW (290°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover97% Sunshine10.2 hrs Humidity28% Pressure1019.9 hPa

What this breeze does at Navy — from fleet racing

Breeze: W about 11 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Navy in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.06)

Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 5% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Navy by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (114 labelled fleet-race days at Navy).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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