Stanford University '29
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3.30 (fleet 4.53) | 14 of 331 | +0.03 ± 0.17 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 31–7 (82%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 | 4 | 31–7 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 4 graded regattas (38 matches) the record is 31–7 against 29.7 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+1.3). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-04 | Carter Ford PCCSC Open Team Race Championship | skipper | 3.58 | 6.58 | 3–0 | 2.8 | ≥+3.00 | 0.2 | 86% |
| 2026-03-21 | Aaron Szambecki Team Race | skipper | 3.57 | 3.86 | 9–4 | 8.3 | +0.29 | 0.1 | 46% |
| 2026-03-14 | Graham Hall Team Race | skipper | 3.58 | 4.35 | 7–1 | 6.3 | +0.78 | 0.3 | 45% |
| 2026-03-07 | Bob Bavier Open Team Race | skipper | 3.39 | 3.30 | 12–2 | 12.1 | −0.09 | 0.0 | 72% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2026 Team page Season | |||||
| PCCSC Richard Sweet Match Race Championship Keelboat | Crew | A | 1 | 1.0 | — |
| Open Atlantic Coast Championships Round 1A | Skipper | B | 14 | 4.6 | 4.62 |
| Open Atlantic Coast Championship | Skipper | B | 8 | 6.9 | 4.57 |
| Spring 2026 Team page Season | |||||
| Top-9 Spring Invite | Skipper | A | 8 | 3.5 | 4.44 |
| Graham Hall Team Race | Skipper | TR | 20 | 65% | — |
| Carter Ford PCCSC Open Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 14 | 100% | — |
| Bob Bavier Open Team Race | Skipper | TR | 13 | 92% | — |
| Aaron Szambecki Team Race | Skipper | TR | 13 | 69% | — |
| Fall 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | A | 5 | 3.4 | 4.80 |
| Nickerson Trophy | Skipper | A | 14 | 3.1 | 4.84 |
| Nevins Trophy | Skipper | B | 6 | 4.3 | 4.59 |
| Fall Pacific Coast Championship | Skipper | B | 4 | 1.2 | 6.65 |
| Allstate Sugar Bowl | Skipper | B | 14 | 6.0 | 1.02 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
