Bob Bavier Open Team Race

HostCharleston
Date03/07/2026
TypeCross Regional
Boat420
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Stanford University	Cardinal	12–1
2	College of Charleston	Cougars	11–2
3	Tulane University	Green Wave	8–5
4	Jacksonville University	Fins	8–5
5	University of Miami	Hurricanes	7–7
6	Roger Williams University	Hawks	5–8
7	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	2–11
8	North Carolina State University	Wolfpack	0–14

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 28,606 team race matches sailed before 2026-03-07, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 41 of 56 matches (73%) with a log-loss of 0.576 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.34 ± 0.25: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 17% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Stanford University Cardinal	1	11.14 school +0.31	Freddie Parkin / Caroline Geiger Thomas Whidden / Amiya Stroumza 3.54 Lucas Woodworth / Kate Myles 3.70	87%	12–2 (86%)	−0.2
2	College of Charleston Cougars	4	9.48 school +0.32	Charlie Allen / Malia Deane 3.35 Fynn Olsen / Caroline Uram 3.11 Maison Koepke / Emma Horton 2.62 7–3 Theo Westerlind / Emma Horton 2.74 4–0	56%	11–3 (79%)	+3.2
3	Tulane University Green Wave	3	9.79 school −0.10	Tate Christopher / Hope Breslin 3.52 John Wood / Charlotte Casey 3.15 Matheo Graham-Capasso / Parker Kumler 3.16	61%	8–6 (57%)	−0.5
4	Jacksonville University Fins	5	8.86 school −0.29	Hank Seum / Madison Mihan 2.95 8–4 Cole Schweda / Taylor Collison 2.77 8–4 Owen Bannasch / Ella Wisely 3.43 8–4 Hank Seum / Taylor Collison 2.97 1–1 Cole Schweda / Jesse Anderson 2.67 1–1 Owen Bannasch / Grayson Tella 3.44 1–1	42%	9–5 (64%)	+3.1
5	University of Miami Hurricanes	6	8.44 school +0.25	David Webb / Gizela Kohan 2.15 Steven Hardee / Arantxa Argibay 3.44 William Stratton / Isaac Van Buren 2.53	32%	7–7 (50%)	+2.5
6	Roger Williams University Hawks	2	10.62 school +0.46	Tristan Mcdonald / Frankie Sparrow 3.44 5–7 Bo Angus / Jancy Grayson 3.55 3–7 Parker Moore / Peter Cotoia 3.56 4–6 Jack Roman / Dominik Moncur 2.97 6–4	78%	6–8 (43%)	−4.9
7	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	7	8.20 school +0.43	Max Kleha / Hattie Rigney 2.42 Mats Braaten / Elise Jones 2.52 3–7 Joseph Marynowski / Haley Temme 2.92 2–8 Scott Opert / Gina Bonazelli 2.11 0–4 Joseph Marynowski / Gina Bonazelli 2.87 0–2 Joseph Marynowski / Scott Opert 2.89 1–1	30%	3–11 (21%)	−1.2
8	North Carolina State University Wolfpack	8	7.44 school −0.35	Kevin Gosselin / Eleanor Crandall 2.71 Benjamin Usher / Marc Hauenstein 2.64 Ryan Brelage / Adam Nilsson 2.40	15%	0–14 (0%)	−2.0

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
2	College of Charleston	9.48	10.90	11–3	7.8	+1.42	3.1	4%
4	Jacksonville University	8.86	10.07	9–5	5.9	+1.21	2.7	5%
5	University of Miami	8.44	9.46	7–7	4.4	+1.03	1.9	9%
1	Stanford University	11.14	11.00	12–2	12.2	−0.13	0.0	74%
3	Tulane University	9.79	9.57	8–6	8.5	−0.21	0.1	75%
7	St. Mary's College of Maryland	8.20	7.64	3–11	4.2	−0.55	0.4	87%
6	Roger Williams University	10.62	8.57	6–8	10.9	−2.04	7.8	>99%
8	North Carolina State University	7.44	4.44	0–14	2.1	≤−3.00	3.2	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Theo Westerlind	College of Charleston	2.74	5.74	4–0	3.3	≥+3.00	1.1	45%
Charlie Allen	College of Charleston	3.35	4.77	11–3	7.8	+1.42	3.1	4%
Fynn Olsen	College of Charleston	3.11	4.54	11–3	7.8	+1.42	3.1	4%
Maison Koepke	College of Charleston	2.62	3.92	7–3	4.5	+1.31	2.3	7%
Hank Seum	Jacksonville University	2.95	4.16	9–5	5.9	+1.21	2.7	5%
Cole Schweda	Jacksonville University	2.77	3.98	9–5	5.9	+1.21	2.7	5%
Owen Bannasch	Jacksonville University	3.43	4.64	9–5	5.9	+1.21	2.7	5%
David Webb	University of Miami	2.15	3.18	7–7	4.4	+1.03	1.9	9%
Steven Hardee	University of Miami	3.44	4.47	7–7	4.4	+1.03	1.9	9%
William Stratton	University of Miami	2.53	3.56	7–7	4.4	+1.03	1.9	9%
Freddie Parkin	Stanford University	3.37	3.24	12–2	12.2	−0.13	0.0	74%
Thomas Whidden	Stanford University	3.54	3.41	12–2	12.2	−0.13	0.0	74%
Lucas Woodworth	Stanford University	3.70	3.57	12–2	12.2	−0.13	0.0	74%
Tate Christopher	Tulane University	3.52	3.31	8–6	8.5	−0.21	0.1	75%
John Wood	Tulane University	3.15	2.94	8–6	8.5	−0.21	0.1	75%
Matheo Graham-Capasso	Tulane University	3.16	2.95	8–6	8.5	−0.21	0.1	75%
Mats Braaten	St. Mary's College of Maryland	2.52	2.04	3–7	3.9	−0.48	0.3	84%
Max Kleha	St. Mary's College of Maryland	2.42	1.86	3–11	4.2	−0.55	0.4	87%
Joseph Marynowski	St. Mary's College of Maryland	2.92	2.36	3–11	4.2	−0.55	0.4	87%
Jack Roman	Roger Williams University	2.97	1.96	6–4	7.5	−1.01	1.2	96%
Parker Moore	Roger Williams University	3.56	1.49	4–6	7.6	−2.07	5.7	>99%
Tristan Mcdonald	Roger Williams University	3.44	1.31	5–7	9.3	−2.13	6.9	>99%
Bo Angus	Roger Williams University	3.55	0.69	3–7	8.5	−2.85	11.9	>99%
Kevin Gosselin	North Carolina State University	2.71	-0.29	0–14	2.1	≤−3.00	3.2	>99%
Benjamin Usher	North Carolina State University	2.64	-0.36	0–14	2.1	≤−3.00	3.2	>99%
Ryan Brelage	North Carolina State University	2.40	-0.60	0–14	2.1	≤−3.00	3.2	>99%
Scott Opert	St. Mary's College of Maryland	2.11	-0.89	0–4	0.2	≤−3.00	0.3	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	College of Charleston	St. Mary's College of Maryland	75%
1	2	Stanford University	North Carolina State University	97%
1	3	Jacksonville University	Tulane University	29%	upset
1	4	University of Miami	Roger Williams University	7%	upset
1	5	Jacksonville University	Stanford University	11%	upset
1	6	Tulane University	North Carolina State University	91%
1	7	College of Charleston	Roger Williams University	27%	upset
1	8	St. Mary's College of Maryland	North Carolina State University	71%
1	9	Tulane University	University of Miami	80%
1	10	Stanford University	College of Charleston	84%
1	11	Roger Williams University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	93%
1	12	Jacksonville University	University of Miami	61%
1	13	Stanford University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	96%
1	14	College of Charleston	Tulane University	41%	upset
1	15	Jacksonville University	North Carolina State University	81%
1	16	Stanford University	Tulane University	79%
1	17	Jacksonville University	Roger Williams University	16%	upset
1	18	University of Miami	North Carolina State University	73%
1	19	Tulane University	Roger Williams University	23%	upset
1	20	College of Charleston	North Carolina State University	89%
1	21	University of Miami	St. Mary's College of Maryland	52%
1	22	Roger Williams University	North Carolina State University	95%
1	23	Stanford University	University of Miami	94%
1	24	Jacksonville University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	65%
1	25	College of Charleston	University of Miami	76%
1	26	Tulane University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	82%
1	27	Stanford University	Roger Williams University	67%
1	28	College of Charleston	Jacksonville University	66%
2	29	College of Charleston	St. Mary's College of Maryland	75%
2	30	Stanford University	North Carolina State University	98%
2	31	Tulane University	Jacksonville University	71%
2	32	University of Miami	Roger Williams University	7%	upset
2	33	Stanford University	Jacksonville University	91%
2	34	Tulane University	North Carolina State University	91%
2	35	College of Charleston	Roger Williams University	27%	upset
2	36	St. Mary's College of Maryland	North Carolina State University	71%
2	37	Tulane University	University of Miami	79%
2	38	Stanford University	College of Charleston	85%
2	39	Roger Williams University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	92%
2	40	University of Miami	Jacksonville University	40%	upset
2	41	Stanford University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	96%
2	42	College of Charleston	Tulane University	41%	upset
2	43	Jacksonville University	North Carolina State University	81%
2	44	Stanford University	Tulane University	80%
2	45	Roger Williams University	Jacksonville University	84%
2	46	University of Miami	North Carolina State University	73%
2	47	Tulane University	Roger Williams University	23%	upset
2	48	College of Charleston	North Carolina State University	89%
2	49	University of Miami	St. Mary's College of Maryland	53%
2	50	Roger Williams University	North Carolina State University	95%
2	51	Stanford University	University of Miami	94%
2	52	Jacksonville University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	65%
2	53	College of Charleston	University of Miami	75%
2	54	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Tulane University	18%	upset
2	55	Roger Williams University	Stanford University	31%	upset
2	56	Jacksonville University	College of Charleston	34%	upset

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Cardinal	Cougars	Wave	Fins	Hurricanes	Hawks	Seahawks	Wolfpack
Stanford University Cardinal	6–1	✕	W	W	L	W	W	W	W
College of Charleston Cougars	6–1	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W
Tulane University Green Wave	4–3	L	L	✕	L	W	W	W	W
Jacksonville University Fins	6–1	W	L	W	✕	W	W	W	W
University of Miami Hurricanes	3–4	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W
Roger Williams University Hawks	2–5	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	1–6	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W
North Carolina State University Wolfpack	0–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	Cardinal	Cougars	Wave	Fins	Hurricanes	Hawks	Seahawks	Wolfpack
Stanford University Cardinal	6–1	✕	W	W	W	W	L	W	W
College of Charleston Cougars	5–2	L	✕	W	L	W	W	W	W
Tulane University Green Wave	4–3	L	L	✕	W	W	W	L	W
Jacksonville University Fins	3–4	L	W	L	✕	L	L	W	W
University of Miami Hurricanes	4–3	L	L	L	W	✕	W	W	W
Roger Williams University Hawks	4–3	W	L	L	W	L	✕	W	W
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	2–5	L	L	W	L	L	L	✕	W
North Carolina State University Wolfpack	0–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Cougars	1-2-4	def.	Seahawks	3-5-6
2	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Wolfpack	3-5-6
3	Fins	1-2-6	def.	Green Wave	3-4-5
4	Hurricanes	2-3-4	def.	Hawks	1-5-6
5	Fins	1-2-6	def.	Cardinal	3-4-5
6	Green Wave	1-2-5	def.	Wolfpack	3-4-6
7	Cougars	1-2-6	def.	Hawks	3-4-5
8	Seahawks	1-2-5	def.	Wolfpack	3-4-6
9	Green Wave	1-2-6	def.	Hurricanes	3-4-5
10	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Cougars	3-4-6
11	Hawks	1-2-6	def.	Seahawks	3-4-5
12	Fins	1-2-5	def.	Hurricanes	3-4-6
13	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
14	Cougars	1-2-6	def.	Green Wave	3-4-5
15	Fins	2-3-4	def.	Wolfpack	1-5-6
16	Cardinal	1-3-6	def.	Green Wave	2-4-5
17	Fins	1-4-5	def.	Hawks	2-3-6
18	Hurricanes	1-2-4	def.	Wolfpack	3-5-6
19	Green Wave	2-3-5	def.	Hawks	1-4-6 DNF
20	Cougars	1-2-4	def.	Wolfpack	3-5-6
21	Hurricanes	1-2-6	def.	Seahawks	3-4-5
22	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Wolfpack	3-4-6
23	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Hurricanes	3-4-6
24	Fins	1-2-6	def.	Seahawks	3-4-5
25	Cougars	1-2-6	def.	Hurricanes	3-4-5
26	Green Wave	1-3-5	def.	Seahawks	2-4-6
27	Cardinal	1-2-6	def.	Hawks	3-4-5
28	Cougars	1-2-4	def.	Fins	3-5-6
29	Cougars	2-3-5	def.	Seahawks	1-4-6
30	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Wolfpack	4-5-6
31	Green Wave	1-2-4	def.	Fins	3-5-6
32	Hurricanes	1-2-3	def.	Hawks	4-5-6
33	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Fins	3-4-6
34	Green Wave	1-2-5	def.	Wolfpack	3-4-6
35	Cougars	2-3-4	def.	Hawks	1-5-6
36	Seahawks	2-3-4	def.	Wolfpack	1-5-6
37	Green Wave	1-2-3	def.	Hurricanes	4-5-6
38	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Cougars	3-5-6
39	Hawks	2-3-4	def.	Seahawks	1-5-6
40	Hurricanes	1-2-6	def.	Fins	3-4-5
41	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
42	Cougars	2-3-4	def.	Green Wave	1-5-6
43	Fins	1-3-4	def.	Wolfpack	2-5-6
44	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Green Wave	3-4-6
45	Hawks	1-2-6	def.	Fins	3-4-5
46	Hurricanes	2-3-4	def.	Wolfpack	1-5-6
47	Green Wave	2-3-4	def.	Hawks	1-5-6
48	Cougars	2-3-4	def.	Wolfpack	1-5-6
49	Hurricanes	2-3-4	def.	Seahawks	1-5-6
50	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Wolfpack	3-4-6
51	Cardinal	2-3-4	def.	Hurricanes	1-5-6
52	Fins	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
53	Cougars	1-3-5	def.	Hurricanes	2-4-6 DNF
54	Seahawks		def.	Green Wave
55	Hawks		def.	Cardinal
56	Fins		def.	Cougars

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Stanford University	Cardinal	Freddie Parkin '29 Lucas Woodworth '27 Thomas Whidden '28	Caroline Geiger '28 Kate Myles '29 Amiya Stroumza '28
College of Charleston	Cougars	Charlie Allen '28 Fynn Olsen '29 Maison Koepke '27 Theo Westerlind '28	Malia Deane '29 Caroline Uram '28 Emma Horton '29
Tulane University	Green Wave	John Wood '26 Matheo Graham-Capasso '26 Tate Christopher '29	Charlotte Casey '29 Parker Kumler '27 Hope Breslin '26
Jacksonville University	Fins	Cole Schweda '27 Hank Seum '27 Owen Bannasch '26	Jesse Anderson '27 Taylor Collison '28 Madison Mihan '27 Grayson Tella '26 Ella Wisely '27
University of Miami	Hurricanes	David Webb '28 Steven Hardee '26 William Stratton '29	Gizela Kohan '27 Arantxa Argibay '27 Isaac Van Buren '28
Roger Williams University	Hawks	Bo Angus '29 Jack Roman '26 Parker Moore '29 Tristan Mcdonald '28	Jancy Grayson '28 Dominik Moncur '29 Peter Cotoia '26 Frankie Sparrow '27
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	Joseph Marynowski '28 Mats Braaten '27 Max Kleha '25 Scott Opert '28	Haley Temme '29 Scott Opert '28 Gina Bonazelli '26 Elise Jones '28 Hattie Rigney '26
North Carolina State University	Wolfpack	Benjamin Usher '27 Kevin Gosselin '27 Ryan Brelage '28	Marc Hauenstein '27 Eleanor Crandall '29 Adam Nilsson '29

Conditions — 03/07/2026 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Mainly clear

Humidity 82% · Pressure 1023.6 hPa

Temperature

72°F

↑ 76°F ↓ 64°F

Feels like 76°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

5.0 kn

avg · max 7.3 kn

Gusts to 16.7 kn

From S (182°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover45% Sunshine8.0 hrs Humidity82% Pressure1023.6 hPa

What this breeze does at Charleston — from fleet racing

Breeze: S about 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Charleston in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.04)

Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 4% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Charleston by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (69 labelled fleet-race days at Charleston).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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