College of Charleston '27
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.52 (fleet 3.38) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.08 ± 0.17 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 25–4 (86%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 | 3 | 25–4 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (29 matches) the record is 25–4 against 20.9 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+4.1). 2 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 5 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-14 | Bud Morrow Open Team Race | skipper | 2.64 | 5.64 | 12–0 | 10.3 | ≥+3.00 | 2.6 | 15% |
| 2026-03-07 | Bob Bavier Open Team Race | skipper | 2.62 | 3.92 | 7–3 | 4.5 | +1.31 | 2.3 | 7% |
| 2026-02-28 | Mendelblatt Open Team Race | skipper | 2.60 | 2.46 | 6–1 | 6.1 | −0.13 | 0.0 | 78% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2026 Team page Season | |||||
| SAISA Open Top 6 Invite | Skipper | C | 8 | 4.1 | 1.01 |
| Charleston Fall Interconference | Skipper | A | 8 | 3.9 | 4.12 |
| Spring 2026 Team page Season | |||||
| Mendelblatt Open Team Race | Skipper | TR | 12 | 92% | — |
| Bud Morrow Open Team Race | Skipper | TR | 12 | 100% | — |
| Bob Bavier Open Team Race | Skipper | TR | 13 | 85% | — |
| Spring 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| Tiger Town Trophy | Skipper | B | 6 | 2.3 | 2.56 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Maison Koepke |  Christchurch School |
'23 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
