| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
College of Charleston | Cougars | 11–1 |
| 2 |  |
Eckerd College | Tritons | 9–3 |
| 3 |  |
Jacksonville University | Fins | 8–4 |
| 4 |  |
Rollins College | Tars | 5–7 |
| 5 |  |
North Carolina State University | Wolfpack | 5–4 |
| 6 |  |
University of South Florida | Bulls | 4–5 |
| 7 |  |
Florida State University | Seminoles | 4–5 |
| 8 |  |
University of Miami | Hurricanes | 3–6 |
| 9 |  |
Clemson University | Tigers | 1–8 |
| 10 |  |
Palm Beach Atlantic University | Sailfish | 1–8 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 28,305 team race matches sailed before 2026-02-28, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 37 of 49 matches (76%) with a log-loss of 0.460 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.10 ± 0.27: a typical event, more orderly than 32% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Eckerd College | 7.43 | 8.69 | 8–3 | 5.8 | +1.26 | 2.0 | 10% |
| 8 | University of Miami | 5.32 | 6.16 | 3–4 | 2.0 | +0.85 | 0.6 | 30% |
| 10 | Palm Beach Atlantic University | 3.97 | 4.44 | 1–8 | 0.7 | +0.47 | 0.1 | 53% |
| 1 | College of Charleston | 9.47 | 9.81 | 10–1 | 9.7 | +0.34 | 0.1 | 61% |
| 7 | Florida State University | 6.45 | 6.58 | 4–5 | 3.8 | +0.13 | 0.0 | 59% |
| 4 | Rollins College | 6.86 | 6.85 | 5–7 | 5.0 | −0.01 | 0.0 | 64% |
| 5 | North Carolina State University | 7.27 | 7.05 | 5–4 | 5.3 | −0.22 | 0.1 | 76% |
| 3 | Jacksonville University | 8.64 | 7.95 | 8–4 | 9.2 | −0.69 | 0.6 | 91% |
| 6 | University of South Florida | 7.29 | 6.44 | 4–5 | 5.2 | −0.86 | 0.8 | 93% |
| 9 | Clemson University | 5.35 | 4.00 | 1–8 | 2.2 | −1.35 | 1.1 | 96% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | Cougars | Tritons | Fins | Tars | Wolfpack | Bulls | Seminoles | Hurricanes | Tigers | Sailfish | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| College of Charleston Cougars | 11–1 | ✕ | W | W | W | W | W | W | W | W | W |
| Eckerd College Tritons | 9–3 | L | ✕ | W | W | W | W | W | W | W | W |
| Jacksonville University Fins | 8–4 | L | L | ✕ | W | L | L | W | W | W | W |
| Rollins College Tars | 5–7 | L | L | L | ✕ | W | W | L | W | W | W |
| North Carolina State University Wolfpack | 5–4 | L | L | W | L | ✕ | W | W | L | W | W |
| University of South Florida Bulls | 4–5 | L | L | W | L | L | ✕ | W | L | W | W |
| Florida State University Seminoles | 4–5 | L | L | L | W | L | L | ✕ | W | W | W |
| University of Miami Hurricanes | 3–6 | L | L | L | L | W | W | L | ✕ | W | L |
| Clemson University Tigers | 1–8 | L | L | L | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ | W |
| Palm Beach Atlantic University Sailfish | 1–8 | L | L | L | L | L | L | L | W | L | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Wolfpack | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Fins | 3-4-5 |
| 2 | |
Tritons | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Seminoles | 1-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Tars | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Bulls | 2-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Hurricanes | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Tigers | 2-3-6 |
| 5 | |
Cougars | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Sailfish | 4-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Tritons | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Wolfpack | 4-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Bulls | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Fins | 1-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Seminoles | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Hurricanes | 2-4-5 |
| 9 | |
Tars | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Sailfish | 3-4-6 |
| 10 | |
Cougars | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Tigers | 3-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Tritons | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bulls | 3-4-6 |
| 12 | |
Hurricanes | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Wolfpack | 1-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Fins | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Sailfish | 3-4-5 |
| 14 | |
Seminoles | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Tigers | 3-4-5 |
| 15 | |
Cougars | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Tars | 3-4-6 |
| 16 | |
Hurricanes | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Bulls | 2-3-6 |
| 17 | |
Tritons | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Sailfish | 3-4-6 |
| 18 | |
Wolfpack | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Tigers | 2-3-6 |
| 19 | |
Fins | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Tars | 1-5-6 |
| 20 | |
Cougars | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Seminoles | 4-5-6 |
| 21 | |
Sailfish | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Hurricanes | 3-4-6 |
| 22 | |
Bulls | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Tigers | 1-5-6 |
| 23 | |
Tritons | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Tars | 4-5-6 |
| 24 | |
Wolfpack | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Seminoles | 2-4-6 |
| 25 | |
Fins | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cougars | 4-5-6 |
| 26 | |
Tigers | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Sailfish | 1-5-6 |
| 27 | |
Tars | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Hurricanes | 1-4-6 |
| 28 | |
Bulls | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Seminoles | 3-4-5 |
| 29 | |
Fins | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Tritons | 3-4-5 |
| 30 | |
Cougars | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Wolfpack | 3-4-6 |
| 31 | |
Tars | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Tigers | 3-4-6 |
| 32 | |
Seminoles | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Sailfish | 1-5-6 |
| 33 | |
Fins | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Hurricanes | 4-5-6 |
| 34 | |
Wolfpack | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Bulls | 1-5-6 |
| 35 | |
Cougars | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Tritons | 1-5-6 |
| 36 | |
Seminoles | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Tars | 3-4-5 |
| 37 | |
Fins | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Tigers | 3-4-6 |
| 38 | |
Wolfpack | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Sailfish | 2-5-6 |
| 39 | |
Tritons | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Hurricanes | 3-4-6 |
| 40 | |
Cougars | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bulls | 4-5-6 |
| 41 | |
Fins | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Seminoles | 3-4-6 |
| 42 | |
Tars | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Wolfpack | 3-5-6 |
| 43 | |
Tritons | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Tigers | 3-4-6 |
| 44 | |
Bulls | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Sailfish | 4-5-6 |
| 45 | |
Cougars | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Hurricanes | 3-5-6 |
| 46 | |
Tritons | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Fins | 3-4-6 |
| 47 | |
Cougars | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Tars | 2-4-5 |
| 48 | |
Fins | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Tars | 3-4-6 |
| 49 | |
Cougars | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Tritons | 3-4-5 |
| 50 | |
Tritons | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Tars | 1-5-6 |
| 51 | |
Cougars | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Fins | 3-5-6 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.07 means a rating gap counts about 6% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
