University of Miami '27
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.28 (fleet 1.69) | 295 of 328 | +0.06 ± 0.17 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 18–26 (41%) as crew 0–4 (0%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 | 3 | 9–15 | — |
| Spring 2024 | 4 | 9–11 | 0–4 |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 7 graded regattas (46 matches) the record is 16–30 against 12.1 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+3.9). 2 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 5 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | St. John's Open Team Race | skipper | 1.64 | 2.11 | 4–6 | 3.1 | +0.47 | 0.3 | 37% |
| 2026-02-28 | Mendelblatt Open Team Race | skipper | 1.50 | 2.73 | 3–3 | 1.8 | +1.22 | 1.1 | 21% |
| 2026-02-15 | SAISA Open Top 6 Team Race | skipper | 1.48 | 2.81 | 2–6 | 0.8 | +1.33 | 1.3 | 18% |
| 2024-03-30 | SAISA South Team Race | skipper | 1.31 | 0.42 | 4–4 | 5.1 | −0.90 | 0.7 | 93% |
| 2024-03-16 | Sunshine City Team Race (USF) | skipper | 1.07 | 2.38 | 2–4 | 0.7 | +1.31 | 1.4 | 15% |
| 2024-03-09 | Bob Bavier Open Team Race | skipper | 1.16 | 2.09 | 1–3 | 0.5 | +0.93 | 0.4 | 41% |
| 2024-03-09 | Bob Bavier Open Team Race | crew | 1.16 | -1.84 | 0–4 | 0.2 | ≤−3.00 | 0.3 | >99% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 Team page Season | |||||
| St. John's Open Team Race | Skipper | TR | 10 | 40% | — |
| SAISA Open Top 6 Team Race | Skipper | TR | 8 | 25% | — |
| SAISA Open Top 6 Invite | Skipper | A | 6 | 15.8 | — |
| Miami Trophy | Skipper | A | 3 | 4.0 | 2.27 |
| Mendelblatt Open Team Race | Skipper | TR | 9 | 33% | — |
| Fall 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| SAISA South Fall Tournament | Skipper | A | 3 | 9.3 | 0.36 |
| SAISA Match Race Championships Keelboat | Crew | A | 1 | 3.0 | — |
| Spring 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| SAISA South Spring Tournament | Skipper | A | 4 | 3.8 | 1.38 |
| Halifax River Invitational | Skipper | A | 6 | 5.0 | 1.78 |
| Fall 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| SAISA Fall Open Champs, Robert L. Armstrong Trophy | Skipper | B | 3 | 14.0 | 0.35 |
| Lake Virginia Invitational | Skipper | A | 12 | 9.7 | 1.26 |
| Charleston Fall Interconference | Skipper | B | 4 | 6.8 | 2.18 |
| Spring 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| Sunshine City Team Race (USF Next 5) | Skipper | TR | 4 | 100% | — |
| Sunshine City Team Race (USF) | Skipper | TR | 12 | 50% | — |
| SAISA South Team Race | Skipper | TR | 8 | 50% | — |
| Florida Trophy | Skipper | B | 6 | 3.8 | 1.91 |
| Bob Bavier Open Team Race | Crew | TR | 8 | 12% | — |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Oliver West |  Darien High School |
'23 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
