| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Jacksonville University | Fins | 10–2 |
| 2 |  |
Bowdoin College | Polar Bears | 8–4 |
| 3 |  |
University of South Florida | Bulls Women | 6–6 |
| 4 |  |
University of Miami | Hurricanes | 6–6 |
| 5 |  |
Texas A&M University | Aggies | 0–12 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 22,767 team race matches sailed before 2024-03-16, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 24 of 30 matches (80%) with a log-loss of 0.467 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.24 ± 0.32: a typical event, more orderly than 22% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | University of South Florida | 4.88 | 6.29 | 6–6 | 3.6 | +1.40 | 2.5 | 6% |
| 4 | University of Miami | 5.59 | 6.08 | 6–6 | 5.1 | +0.49 | 0.3 | 39% |
| 1 | Jacksonville University | 7.83 | 7.69 | 10–2 | 10.2 | −0.13 | 0.0 | 74% |
| 2 | Bowdoin College | 7.58 | 6.50 | 8–4 | 9.7 | −1.07 | 1.3 | 97% |
| 5 | Texas A&M University | 3.87 | 0.87 | 0–12 | 1.4 | ≤−3.00 | 2.2 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalea Woodard | University of South Florida | 1.48 | 2.88 | 6–6 | 3.6 | +1.40 | 2.5 | 6% |
| Marina Dreyfuss | University of South Florida | 1.06 | 2.47 | 6–6 | 3.6 | +1.40 | 2.5 | 6% |
| Danny Riano | University of Miami | 1.83 | 2.32 | 6–6 | 5.1 | +0.49 | 0.3 | 39% |
| Andrew Engel | University of Miami | 0.83 | 0.47 | 4–2 | 4.4 | −0.36 | 0.1 | 82% |
| Lauren Russler | Bowdoin College | 2.74 | 1.67 | 8–4 | 9.7 | −1.07 | 1.3 | 97% |
| Sydney Krahulik | Texas A&M University | 0.74 | -2.26 | 0–12 | 1.4 | ≤−3.00 | 2.2 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | Fins | Bears | Women | Hurricanes | Aggies | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville University Fins | 3–1 | ✕ | W | W | L | W |
| Bowdoin College Polar Bears | 3–1 | L | ✕ | W | W | W |
| University of South Florida Bulls Women | 2–2 | L | L | ✕ | W | W |
| University of Miami Hurricanes | 2–2 | W | L | L | ✕ | W |
| Texas A&M University Aggies | 0–4 | L | L | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Fins | Bears | Women | Hurricanes | Aggies | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville University Fins | 4–0 | ✕ | W | W | W | W |
| Bowdoin College Polar Bears | 1–3 | L | ✕ | L | L | W |
| University of South Florida Bulls Women | 3–1 | L | W | ✕ | W | W |
| University of Miami Hurricanes | 2–2 | L | W | L | ✕ | W |
| Texas A&M University Aggies | 0–4 | L | L | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Fins | Bears | Women | Hurricanes | Aggies | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville University Fins | 3–1 | ✕ | L | W | W | W |
| Bowdoin College Polar Bears | 4–0 | W | ✕ | W | W | W |
| University of South Florida Bulls Women | 1–3 | L | L | ✕ | L | W |
| University of Miami Hurricanes | 2–2 | L | L | W | ✕ | W |
| Texas A&M University Aggies | 0–4 | L | L | L | L | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Hurricanes | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Fins | 3-4-5 |
| 2 | |
Polar Bears | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Aggies | 4-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Fins | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bulls Women | 3-4-6 |
| 4 | |
Polar Bears | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Hurricanes | 3-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Bulls Women | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Aggies | 4-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Fins | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Polar Bears | 2-4-5 |
| 7 | |
Hurricanes | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Aggies | 3-4-6 |
| 8 | |
Polar Bears | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bulls Women | 3-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Fins | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Aggies | 4-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Bulls Women | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Hurricanes | 3-4-5 |
| 11 | |
Fins | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Hurricanes | 4-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Polar Bears | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Aggies | 2-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Fins | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bulls Women | 3-4-6 |
| 14 | |
Hurricanes | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Polar Bears | 1-4-6 |
| 15 | |
Bulls Women | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Aggies | 2-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Fins | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Polar Bears | 3-4-6 |
| 17 | |
Hurricanes | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Aggies | 3-4-6 |
| 18 | |
Bulls Women | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Polar Bears | 3-5-6 |
| 19 | |
Fins | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Aggies | 4-5-6 |
| 20 | |
Bulls Women | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Hurricanes | 3-4-6 |
| 21 | |
Fins | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Hurricanes | 3-4-6 |
| 22 | |
Polar Bears | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Aggies | 3-4-5 |
| 23 | |
Fins | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bulls Women | 3-4-5 |
| 24 | |
Polar Bears | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Hurricanes | 3-4-6 |
| 25 | |
Bulls Women | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Aggies | 4-5-6 |
| 26 | |
Polar Bears | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Fins | 3-4-6 |
| 27 | |
Hurricanes | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Aggies | 3-5-6 |
| 28 | |
Polar Bears | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bulls Women | 3-4-5 |
| 29 | |
Fins | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Aggies | 3-5-6 |
| 30 | |
Hurricanes | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bulls Women | 3-4-5 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Jacksonville University | Fins | Brent Penwarden '24 Matthew King '24 Owen Bannasch '26 |
Kayla Putzke '24 Madison Mihan '27 Ella Wisely '27 |
|
Bowdoin College | Polar Bears | Kyra Phelan '26 Lauren Russler '26 Rebecca Schill '27 |
Holliss Hirsch '25 Luisa Louchheim '25 Katharine Kurtz '24 |
|
University of South Florida | Bulls Women | Kailey Warrior '27 Kalea Woodard '24 Marina Dreyfuss '27 |
Saleta Powell '25 Madisen Hamai '26 Ochithya Fernando '25 Catherine Brennan '26 |
|
University of Miami | Hurricanes | Andrew Engel '26 Danny Riano '27 Oliver West '27 Steven Hardee '26 |
Danielle Ketner '26 Brady Briggs '27 Gizela Kohan '27 |
|
Texas A&M University | Aggies | Kate Hennig '26 Michael Morse '25 Sydney Krahulik '27 |
Evelyn Dubois '27 Maggie Menefee '25 Emily Davison '24 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
