University of Miami '27
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.90 (fleet 2.69) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.04 ± 0.17 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 28–26 (52%) as crew 7–1 (88%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2025 | 2 | 14–16 | — |
| Spring 2024 | 4 | 14–10 | 7–1 |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 6 graded regattas (62 matches) the record is 35–27 against 30.2 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+4.8). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 10 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-15 | Graham Hall Team Race | skipper | 2.28 | 1.71 | 5–10 | 6.2 | −0.57 | 0.5 | 88% |
| 2025-02-15 | Lake Virginia Team Race | skipper | 2.06 | 2.65 | 9–6 | 7.3 | +0.58 | 0.7 | 24% |
| 2024-03-30 | SAISA South Team Race | skipper | 2.07 | 1.17 | 4–4 | 5.1 | −0.90 | 0.7 | 93% |
| 2024-03-23 | Aaron Szambecki Team Race | crew | 2.62 | 5.22 | 7–1 | 3.6 | +2.60 | 5.8 | 1% |
| 2024-03-17 | Sunshine City Team Race (USF Next 5) | skipper | 2.15 | 5.15 | 4–0 | 2.9 | ≥+3.00 | 1.9 | 25% |
| 2024-03-16 | Sunshine City Team Race (USF) | skipper | 1.83 | 2.32 | 6–6 | 5.1 | +0.49 | 0.3 | 39% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| SAISA Top 9 Invitational | Skipper | B | 5 | 10.2 | 1.83 |
| SAISA South Top 6 Invitational | Skipper | B | 9 | 8.9 | -0.57 |
| Nevins Trophy | Skipper | B | 4 | 6.8 | 3.92 |
| Spring 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| Lake Virginia Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 60% | — |
| Graham Hall Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 33% | — |
| Spring 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| Sunshine City Team Race (USF Next 5) | Skipper | TR | 4 | 100% | — |
| Sunshine City Team Race (USF) | Skipper | TR | 12 | 50% | — |
| SAISA South Team Race | Skipper | TR | 8 | 50% | — |
| Aaron Szambecki Team Race | Crew | TR | 15 | 53% | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
