Navigate

Lake Virginia Team Race

# SchoolTeam Rec.
1 University of South Florida University of South Florida Bulls 15–0
2 University of Miami University of Miami Hurricanes 9–6
3 Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Dolphins 9–6
4 Rollins College Rollins College Tars 7–8
5 Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Fins 3–12
6 Clemson University Clemson University Tigers 2–13

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 25,056 team race matches sailed before 2025-02-15, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 38 of 45 matches (84%) with a log-loss of 0.433 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.44 ± 0.30: an orderly event, more orderly than 89% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

PlaceSchool Pred. Strength Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) Pred. win % Recordvs forecast
1University of South Florida
Bulls		17.06Humberto Porrata / Mercedes Newland Cespedes 2.16
Zachariah Schemel / Saleta Powell 2.58
Efe Guder / Ruth Bergman		85%15–0 (100%)+2.2
2University of Miami
Hurricanes		35.39
school +0.17		Danny Riano / Isaac Van Buren 2.06
Harrison Vanderground / Jospeh Iacono
Nathan Long / Jadin Gonzalez		49%9–6 (60%)+1.7
3Jacksonville University
Dolphins		26.31Stefanos Pappas / Sarah Goodyear 1.77
Patrick Igoe / Roman Borger 2.67
Joshua Knowles / Elizabeth Williamson		70%9–6 (60%)−1.5
4Rollins College
Tars		44.91
school +0.08, home +0.40		Milo Miller / Jane Mckenzie
Jack Adderley / Maggie Burnham
Ka Hamner / Alexander Goldsmith 1.18 4–5
Ka Hamner / Henry Campbell 1.35 3–3		36%7–8 (47%)+1.6
5Jacksonville University
Fins		64.51Ella Wisely / Owen Bannasch
Ella Lansford / Rori Bywater
Fiona Froelich / Kayla Putzke		27%3–12 (20%)−1.0
6Clemson University
Tigers		54.81Nilah Miller / Ellison Fleming 1.68
Luke Adams / Paige Phillips 1.39
Rowan Barnes / Jonathan Caruso 1.60		33%2–13 (13%)−3.0

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

PlaceSchoolStrength Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
1University of South Florida Bulls7.0610.0615–012.7≥+3.003.48%
2University of Miami Hurricanes5.395.979–67.3+0.580.724%
4Rollins College Tars4.915.447–85.4+0.530.625%
5Jacksonville University Fins4.514.093–124.0−0.420.382%
3Jacksonville University Dolphins6.315.769–610.5−0.550.690%
6Clemson University Tigers4.813.492–135.0−1.322.699%

By skipper

SkipperSchoolValue Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
Zachariah SchemelUniversity of South Florida2.585.5815–012.7≥+3.003.48%
Efe GuderUniversity of South Florida2.035.0315–012.7≥+3.003.48%
Danny RianoUniversity of Miami2.062.659–67.3+0.580.724%
Ka HamnerRollins College1.181.717–85.4+0.530.625%
Jack AdderleyRollins College1.081.617–85.4+0.530.625%
Ella LansfordJacksonville University1.080.663–124.0−0.420.382%
Stefanos PappasJacksonville University1.771.229–610.5−0.550.690%
Joshua KnowlesJacksonville University1.621.079–610.5−0.550.690%
Nilah MillerClemson University1.680.362–135.0−1.322.699%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd#WinnerLoser P(winner)
11Rollins College TarsClemson University Tigers52%
12Jacksonville University DolphinsJacksonville University Fins85%
13University of South Florida BullsUniversity of Miami Hurricanes85%
14Jacksonville University DolphinsClemson University Tigers81%
15University of South Florida BullsRollins College Tars89%
16University of Miami HurricanesJacksonville University Fins68%
17University of South Florida BullsJacksonville University Dolphins68%
18Jacksonville University FinsClemson University Tigers43%upset
19University of Miami HurricanesRollins College Tars64%
110University of South Florida BullsJacksonville University Fins93%
111Jacksonville University DolphinsRollins College Tars82%
112University of Miami HurricanesClemson University Tigers63%
113Rollins College TarsJacksonville University Fins58%
114University of South Florida BullsClemson University Tigers90%
115University of Miami HurricanesJacksonville University Dolphins28%upset
216Rollins College TarsClemson University Tigers54%
217Jacksonville University DolphinsJacksonville University Fins86%
218University of South Florida BullsUniversity of Miami Hurricanes84%
219Jacksonville University DolphinsClemson University Tigers82%
220University of South Florida BullsRollins College Tars89%
221University of Miami HurricanesJacksonville University Fins71%
222University of South Florida BullsJacksonville University Dolphins68%
223Jacksonville University FinsClemson University Tigers42%upset
224University of Miami HurricanesRollins College Tars63%
225University of South Florida BullsJacksonville University Fins93%
226Jacksonville University DolphinsRollins College Tars81%
227Clemson University TigersUniversity of Miami Hurricanes35%upset
228Rollins College TarsJacksonville University Fins60%
229University of South Florida BullsClemson University Tigers91%
230Jacksonville University DolphinsUniversity of Miami Hurricanes71%
331Rollins College TarsClemson University Tigers55%
332Jacksonville University FinsJacksonville University Dolphins14%upset
333University of South Florida BullsUniversity of Miami Hurricanes84%
334Jacksonville University DolphinsClemson University Tigers82%
335University of South Florida BullsRollins College Tars89%
336University of Miami HurricanesJacksonville University Fins72%
337University of South Florida BullsJacksonville University Dolphins68%
338Clemson University TigersJacksonville University Fins58%
339Rollins College TarsUniversity of Miami Hurricanes37%upset
340University of South Florida BullsJacksonville University Fins93%
341Jacksonville University DolphinsRollins College Tars81%
342University of Miami HurricanesClemson University Tigers66%
343Rollins College TarsJacksonville University Fins61%
344University of South Florida BullsClemson University Tigers91%
345University of Miami HurricanesJacksonville University Dolphins30%upset

Round 1

TeamRec.BullsHurricanesDolphinsTarsFinsTigers
University of South Florida Bulls5–0✕WWWWW
University of Miami Hurricanes4–1L✕WWWW
Jacksonville University Dolphins4–6LL✕L✕W
Rollins College Tars2–3LLW✕WW
Jacksonville University Fins4–6LL✕L✕W
Clemson University Tigers0–5LLLLL✕

Round 2

TeamRec.BullsHurricanesDolphinsTarsFinsTigers
University of South Florida Bulls5–0✕WWWWW
University of Miami Hurricanes2–3L✕LWLL
Jacksonville University Dolphins5–5LW✕L✕W
Rollins College Tars2–3LLW✕WW
Jacksonville University Fins5–5LW✕L✕W
Clemson University Tigers1–4LWLLL✕

Round 3

TeamRec.BullsHurricanesDolphinsTarsFinsTigers
University of South Florida Bulls5–0✕WWWWW
University of Miami Hurricanes3–2L✕WLWW
Jacksonville University Dolphins3–7LL✕L✕L
Rollins College Tars3–2LWW✕WW
Jacksonville University Fins3–7LL✕L✕L
Clemson University Tigers1–4LLWLW✕
# Winner Loser Pos.
1 Rollins College Tars 1-2-4 def. Clemson University Tigers 3-5-6
2 Jacksonville University Dolphins 1-2-6 def. Jacksonville University Fins 3-4-5
3 University of South Florida Bulls 1-2-4 def. University of Miami Hurricanes 3-5-6
4 Jacksonville University Dolphins 1-2-4 def. Clemson University Tigers 3-5-6
5 University of South Florida Bulls 1-3-5 def. Rollins College Tars 2-4-6
6 University of Miami Hurricanes 1-2-5 def. Jacksonville University Fins 3-4-6
7 University of South Florida Bulls 1-2-5 def. Jacksonville University Dolphins 3-4-6
8 Jacksonville University Fins 2-3-4 def. Clemson University Tigers 1-5-6
9 University of Miami Hurricanes 1-4-5 def. Rollins College Tars 2-3-6
10 University of South Florida Bulls 1-3-5 def. Jacksonville University Fins 2-4-6
11 Jacksonville University Dolphins 1-2-5 def. Rollins College Tars 3-4-6
12 University of Miami Hurricanes 2-3-5 def. Clemson University Tigers 1-4-6
13 Rollins College Tars 1-2-5 def. Jacksonville University Fins 3-4-6
14 University of South Florida Bulls 1-2-5 def. Clemson University Tigers 3-4-6
15 University of Miami Hurricanes 1-3-4 def. Jacksonville University Dolphins 2-5-6
16 Rollins College Tars 2-3-4 def. Clemson University Tigers 1-5-6
17 Jacksonville University Dolphins 1-2-5 def. Jacksonville University Fins 3-4-6
18 University of South Florida Bulls 1-2-5 def. University of Miami Hurricanes 3-4-6
19 Jacksonville University Dolphins 1-2-3 def. Clemson University Tigers 4-5-6
20 University of South Florida Bulls 1-2-5 def. Rollins College Tars 3-4-6
21 University of Miami Hurricanes 1-2-5 def. Jacksonville University Fins 3-4-6
22 University of South Florida Bulls 1-3-6 def. Jacksonville University Dolphins 2-4-5
23 Jacksonville University Fins 1-3-5 def. Clemson University Tigers 2-4-6
24 University of Miami Hurricanes 1-2-6 def. Rollins College Tars 3-4-5
25 University of South Florida Bulls 1-2-4 def. Jacksonville University Fins 3-5-6
26 Jacksonville University Dolphins 1-2-5 def. Rollins College Tars 3-4-6
27 Clemson University Tigers 1-3-6 def. University of Miami Hurricanes 2-4-5
28 Rollins College Tars 1-3-5 def. Jacksonville University Fins 2-4-6
29 University of South Florida Bulls 1-2-3 def. Clemson University Tigers 4-5-6
30 Jacksonville University Dolphins 1-2-4 def. University of Miami Hurricanes 3-5-6
31 Rollins College Tars 2-3-4 def. Clemson University Tigers 1-5-6
32 Jacksonville University Fins 1-3-6 def. Jacksonville University Dolphins 2-4-5
33 University of South Florida Bulls 1-2-4 def. University of Miami Hurricanes 3-5-6
34 Jacksonville University Dolphins 1-2-5 def. Clemson University Tigers 3-4-6
35 University of South Florida Bulls 1-2-3 def. Rollins College Tars 4-5-6
36 University of Miami Hurricanes 1-2-6 def. Jacksonville University Fins 3-4-5
37 University of South Florida Bulls 1-4-5 def. Jacksonville University Dolphins 2-3-6
38 Clemson University Tigers 1-2-3 def. Jacksonville University Fins 4-5-6
39 Rollins College Tars 2-3-5 def. University of Miami Hurricanes 1-4-6
40 University of South Florida Bulls 1-2-5 def. Jacksonville University Fins 3-4-6
41 Jacksonville University Dolphins 2-3-4 def. Rollins College Tars 1-5-6
42 University of Miami Hurricanes 1-2-5 def. Clemson University Tigers 3-4-6
43 Rollins College Tars 1-2-4 def. Jacksonville University Fins 3-5-6
44 University of South Florida Bulls 1-2-5 def. Clemson University Tigers 3-4-6
45 University of Miami Hurricanes 1-2-6 def. Jacksonville University Dolphins 3-4-5

Conditions — 02/15/2025 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Mainly clear
Humidity 68%  ·  Pressure 1021.0 hPa

Temperature

77°F
↑ 83°F   ↓ 67°F
Feels like 78°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
7.4 kn
avg  ·  max 9.4 kn
Gusts to 21.6 kn
From SSE (150°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover64% Sunshine8.1 hrs Humidity68% Pressure1021.0 hPa Rain0.02 in

What this breeze does at Rollins — from fleet racing

Breeze: SE about 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Rollins in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.03)
Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 3% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Rollins by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (20 labelled fleet-race days at Rollins).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →