Jacksonville University '27
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.82 (fleet 1.15) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 3–12 (20%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2025 | 1 | 3–12 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 1 graded regattas (15 matches) the record is 3–12 against 4.0 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−1.0). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 0 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-15 | Lake Virginia Team Race | skipper | 1.08 | 0.66 | 3–12 | 4.0 | −0.42 | 0.3 | 82% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| SAISA Women's Top 9 Invitational Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 11.3 | — |
| Spring 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| Lake Virginia Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 20% | — |
| Fall 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| SAISA Women's Fall Top 9 Invite Women's | Skipper | A | 13 | 6.6 | 0.75 |
| USF Trophy | Skipper | B | 4 | 8.5 | 0.51 |
| Lake Virginia Invitational | Skipper | B | 11 | 9.9 | 0.38 |
| The Dick Allsop Trophy | Skipper | B | 3 | 4.7 | 2.31 |
| Spring 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| SAISA Spring Women's Invite Women's | Skipper | B | 9 | 5.7 | -1.55 |
| Jacksonville Trophy Regatta | Skipper | B | 6 | 3.5 | 1.46 |
| Florida Trophy | Skipper | B | 6 | 3.8 | 1.90 |
| Fall 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| Sugar Bowl Women’s Women's | Skipper | B | 9 | 12.0 | -0.26 |
| ERAU Greg Popp Trophy | Skipper | B | 6 | 4.2 | 1.41 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
