SAISA Women's Fall Top 9 Invite

Women's
HostJacksonville
Date09/21/2024
TypeFundamental
BoatFJ
ScoringCombined

#	School	Team	TOT
1	University of South Florida	Bulls	107
2	Jacksonville University	Fins	118
3	University of South Florida	Horns	160
4	Rollins College	Tars	213
5	North Carolina State University	Wolfpack	247
6	Jacksonville University	Dolphins	272
7	University of Miami	Hurricanes	291
8	Florida State University	Seminoles	360

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	R12	R13	TOT	Sailors
University of South Florida	Bulls A	3	2	1	2	3	1	1	1	2	1	2	8	2	29	Emma Shakespeare '24 Melissa Janes '26
Jacksonville University	Fins A	1	4	2	4	4	5	2	2	4	3	3	2	1	37	Emily Allen '25 Reagan Carris '26
University of South Florida	Horns B	2	1	3	1	1	3	8	5	12	9	7	4	7	63	Marina Dreyfuss '27 Catherine Brennan '26
University of South Florida	Bulls B	5	3	5	11	11	7	4	3	7	11	1	7	3	78	Kailey Warrior '27 Dana Aljasir '27
Rollins College	Tars B	7	8	9	3	9	8	3	4	11	2	5	5	6	80	Shay Bridge '28 Jane Mckenzie '27
Jacksonville University	Fins B	6	9	4	10	5	2	5	8	9	10	4	1	8	81	Fiona Froelich '28 Lauren Turner '26
Jacksonville University	Dolphins A	4	6	7	8	2	11	6	9	3	4	12	10	4	86	Ella Lansford '27
University of South Florida	Horns A	10	5	10	6	14	9	9	7	1	5	9	3	9	97	Ghislaine Van Empel '27 No Show
North Carolina State University	Wolfpack A	8	11	11	5	6	13	12	14	5	6	10	6	5	112	Lyla Solway '28 [1-13] Shea Hoffacker '27 [1-3, 10-13] Olivia Soucy '28 [4-9]
University of Miami	Hurricanes A	11	7	8	7	10	4	7	6	10	14	11	15	13	123	Arantxa Argibay '27 [1-13] Gizela Kohan '27 [1-3] Cora Johnson '27 [4-13]
Rollins College	Tars A	12	15	6	9	7	10	11	10	13	7	14	9	10	133	Julia Scott '27 Isabel Brenner '28
North Carolina State University	Wolfpack B	13	14	13	12	8	6	10	13	6	12	6	11	11	135	Evelyn Hannah '28 [1-13] Jane Caroline Minchew '25 [1-12] Olivia Soucy '28 [13]
Florida State University	Seminoles B	16	12	14	13	16	12	15	11	8	8	8	12	15	160	Madison Roy '25 Sophie Stalnaker '25
University of Miami	Hurricanes B	9	10	12	14	13	16	14	12	14	13	13	14	14	168	Daniella Woodbridge '28 [1-13] Eva Klovatskiy '26 [1-6, 13] Gizela Kohan '27 [7-12]
Jacksonville University	Dolphins B	15	16	15	15	12	14	13	15	15	15	16	13	12	186	Natalie Dunlap '28 Jamie Morin '28
Florida State University	Seminoles A	14	13	16	16	15	15	16	16	16	16	15	16	16	200	Olivia Figley '26 Olivia Hoover '27

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.100+0.10

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2024 (9 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A	8A	9A	10A	11A	12A	13A
Florida State University Seminoles	1	1	1	2	2	2	3	3	3	4	4	4	5
Jacksonville University Dolphins	3	3	3	4	4	4	5	5	5	6	6	6	7
Jacksonville University Fins	2	2	2	1	1	1	16	16	16	15	15	15	14
University of Miami Hurricanes	6	6	6	5	5	5	4	4	4	3	3	3	2
North Carolina State University Wolfpack	4	4	4	3	3	3	2	2	2	1	1	1	16
Rollins College Tars	5	5	5	6	6	6	7	7	7	8	8	8	9
University of South Florida Bulls	7	7	7	8	8	8	9	9	9	10	10	10	11
University of South Florida Horns	8	8	8	7	7	7	6	6	6	5	5	5	4

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B	7B	8B	9B	10B	11B	12B	13B
Florida State University Seminoles	9	9	9	10	10	10	11	11	11	12	12	12	13
Jacksonville University Dolphins	11	11	11	12	12	12	13	13	13	14	14	14	15
Jacksonville University Fins	10	10	10	9	9	9	8	8	8	7	7	7	6
University of Miami Hurricanes	14	14	14	13	13	13	12	12	12	11	11	11	10
North Carolina State University Wolfpack	12	12	12	11	11	11	10	10	10	9	9	9	8
Rollins College Tars	13	13	13	14	14	14	15	15	15	16	16	16	1
University of South Florida Bulls	15	15	15	16	16	16	1	1	1	2	2	2	3
University of South Florida Horns	16	16	16	15	15	15	14	14	14	13	13	13	12

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Florida State University	Olivia Figley '26	Olivia Hoover '27
Seminoles	Madison Roy '25	Sophie Stalnaker '25
Jacksonville University	Ella Lansford '27
Dolphins	Natalie Dunlap '28	Jamie Morin '28
Jacksonville University	Emily Allen '25	Reagan Carris '26
Fins	Fiona Froelich '28	Lauren Turner '26
North Carolina State University	Lyla Solway '28 [1-13]	Shea Hoffacker '27 [1-3, 10-13] Olivia Soucy '28 [4-9]
Wolfpack	Evelyn Hannah '28 [1-13]	Jane Caroline Minchew '25 [1-12] Olivia Soucy '28 [13]
Rollins College	Julia Scott '27	Isabel Brenner '28
Tars	Shay Bridge '28	Jane Mckenzie '27
University of Miami	Arantxa Argibay '27 [1-13]	Gizela Kohan '27 [1-3] Cora Johnson '27 [4-13]
Hurricanes	Daniella Woodbridge '28 [1-13]	Eva Klovatskiy '26 [1-6, 13] Gizela Kohan '27 [7-12]
University of South Florida	Emma Shakespeare '24	Melissa Janes '26
Bulls	Kailey Warrior '27	Dana Aljasir '27
University of South Florida	Ghislaine Van Empel '27	No Show
Horns	Marina Dreyfuss '27	Catherine Brennan '26

Conditions — 09/21/2024 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 76% · Pressure 1014.0 hPa

Temperature

79°F

↑ 82°F ↓ 73°F

Feels like 84°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

9.2 kn

avg · max 11.4 kn

Gusts to 21.2 kn

From NE (34°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover14% Sunshine10.7 hrs Humidity76% Pressure1014.0 hPa Rain0.02 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: N 10 kn · NE 9 kn* (*weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In this breeze at Jacksonville: a typical day (−0.01)

Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.

Fleet adjustment +0.00 (an ordinary fleet) · combined forecast −0.01

Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.23 ± 0.13)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Jacksonville by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (22 labelled days at Jacksonville).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

Navigate

Menu