Rollins College '28
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.51 (fleet 2.22) | 275 of 328 | −0.10 ± 0.16 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 37–48 (44%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 | 5 | 23–28 | — |
| Spring 2025 | 4 | 14–20 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 8 graded regattas (84 matches) the record is 37–47 against 43.1 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−6.1). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 5 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 10 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-10 | SAISA Women's Team Race Champs | skipper | 2.07 | 1.25 | 3–6 | 4.1 | −0.81 | 0.6 | 92% |
| 2026-03-14 | Bud Morrow Open Team Race | skipper | 2.08 | 0.24 | 7–7 | 11.0 | −1.83 | 5.4 | >99% |
| 2026-03-07 | 2026 Jen Harris Team Race | skipper | 2.08 | 2.02 | 2–6 | 2.1 | −0.06 | 0.0 | 70% |
| 2026-02-21 | USF Women's TR - Ashley Reynolds Reali Memorial | skipper | 2.08 | 1.64 | 6–6 | 7.0 | −0.44 | 0.3 | 85% |
| 2026-02-15 | SAISA Women's Top 6 Team Race | skipper | 2.08 | 2.54 | 5–3 | 4.5 | +0.46 | 0.2 | 51% |
| 2025-04-11 | SAISA Women's Team Racing Championships | skipper | 2.00 | -0.29 | 1–6 | 1.5 | −2.29 | 0.7 | >99% |
| 2025-03-08 | The Turner Team Race | skipper | 1.80 | 2.53 | 11–3 | 9.5 | +0.72 | 0.8 | 25% |
| 2025-02-22 | USF Women's Team Race | skipper | 1.71 | -0.77 | 2–10 | 3.4 | −2.48 | 1.9 | >99% |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Shay Bridge |  Tabor Academy |
'24 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
