| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
College of Charleston | Cougars | 7–0 |
| 2 |  |
University of South Florida | Bulls | 5–2 |
| 3 |  |
Jacksonville University | Fins | 3–4 |
| 4 |  |
Rollins College | Tars | 1–6 |
| 5 |  |
University of Central Florida | Knights | 0–4 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 27,379 team race matches sailed before 2025-04-11, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 16 of 16 matches (100%) with a log-loss of 0.125 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.58 ± 0.46: an orderly event, more orderly than 95% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | College of Charleston Cougars | 1 | 9.15 school +0.32 | Emma Tallman / Clara Murphy 3.12 Emily Alfortish / Marina Dryer 2.78 Fredrikke Foss / Andrea Melnik 2.92 | 93% | 7–0 (100%) | +0.5 |
| 2 | University of South Florida Bulls | 2 | 7.39 home +0.36 | Kailey Warrior / Madisen Hamai 2.49 Kalea Woodard / Ruth Bergman 2.45 Heidi Hicks / Melissa Janes 2.04 4–2 Ghislaine Van Empel / Catherine Brennan 2.14 1–0 | 63% | 5–2 (71%) | +0.6 |
| 3 | Jacksonville University Fins | 3 | 6.81 school −0.20 | Emily Allen / Reagan Carris 2.94 Kaitlyn Liebel / Amelia Sulciner 2.13 Fiona Froelich / Payton Ruth 1.94 | 51% | 3–4 (43%) | −0.6 |
| 4 | Rollins College Tars | 4 | 5.12 school +0.06 | Shay Bridge / Maggie Burnham 2.00 Ka Hamner / Isabel Brenner 1.36 Julia Scott / Zi Burns 1.57 0–4 Julia Scott / Jane Mckenzie 1.69 1–2 | 22% | 1–6 (14%) | −0.5 |
| 5 | University of Central Florida Knights | 5 | 0.12 | Rain Hong / Lia Maman -0.12 Ashley Flanagan / Tyra Dimatteo Emma Salomon / Gianna Gagliardi | 0% | 0–4 (0%) | −0.0 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | College of Charleston | 9.15 | 12.15 | 7–0 | 6.5 | ≥+3.00 | 0.7 | 59% |
| 2 | University of South Florida | 7.39 | 8.12 | 5–2 | 4.4 | +0.73 | 0.3 | 46% |
| 3 | Jacksonville University | 6.81 | 6.16 | 3–4 | 3.6 | −0.64 | 0.3 | 88% |
| 4 | Rollins College | 5.12 | 2.83 | 1–6 | 1.5 | −2.29 | 0.7 | >99% |
| 5 | University of Central Florida | 0.12 | -2.88 | 0–4 | 0.0 | ≤−3.00 | 0.0 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fredrikke Foss | College of Charleston | 2.92 | 5.92 | 7–0 | 6.5 | ≥+3.00 | 0.7 | 59% |
| Kalea Woodard | University of South Florida | 2.45 | 3.18 | 5–2 | 4.4 | +0.73 | 0.3 | 46% |
| Ka Hamner | Rollins College | 1.36 | -0.93 | 1–6 | 1.5 | −2.29 | 0.7 | >99% |
| Julia Scott | Rollins College | 1.57 | -0.72 | 1–6 | 1.5 | −2.29 | 0.7 | >99% |
| Rain Hong | University of Central Florida | -0.12 | -3.12 | 0–4 | 0.0 | ≤−3.00 | 0.0 | >99% |
| Ashley Flanagan | University of Central Florida | -1.44 | -4.44 | 0–4 | 0.0 | ≤−3.00 | 0.0 | >99% |
| Emma Salomon | University of Central Florida | 1.50 | -1.50 | 0–4 | 0.0 | ≤−3.00 | 0.0 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | Cougars | Bulls | Fins | Tars | Knights | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| College of Charleston Cougars | 7–0 | ✕ | W | W | W | W |
| University of South Florida Bulls | 5–2 | L | ✕ | W | W | W |
| Jacksonville University Fins | 3–4 | L | L | ✕ | W | W |
| Rollins College Tars | 1–6 | L | L | L | ✕ | W |
| University of Central Florida Knights | 0–4 | L | L | L | L | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Cougars | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Fins | 3-4-6 |
| 2 | |
Bulls | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Tars | 2-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Cougars | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Knights | 4-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Bulls | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Fins | 3-4-6 |
| 5 | |
Cougars | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Tars | 3-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Fins | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Knights | 4-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Cougars | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bulls | 3-4-6 |
| 8 | |
Tars | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Knights | 4-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Bulls | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Knights | 4-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Fins | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Tars | 4-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Bulls | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Fins | 1-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Cougars | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Tars | 4-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Fins | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Tars | 3-4-5 |
| 14 | |
Cougars | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Bulls | 1-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Bulls | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Tars | 2-4-6 |
| 16 | |
Cougars | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Fins | 4-5-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
College of Charleston | Cougars | Emily Alfortish '25 Emma Tallman '25 Fredrikke Foss '25 |
Marina Dryer '26 Clara Murphy '27 Andrea Melnik '27 |
|
University of South Florida | Bulls | Ghislaine Van Empel '27 Heidi Hicks '25 Kailey Warrior '27 Kalea Woodard '24 |
Catherine Brennan '26 Melissa Janes '26 Madisen Hamai '26 Ruth Bergman '28 |
|
Jacksonville University | Fins | Emily Allen '25 Fiona Froelich '28 Kaitlyn Liebel '26 |
Reagan Carris '26 Payton Ruth '26 Amelia Sulciner '28 |
|
Rollins College | Tars | Julia Scott '27 Ka Hamner '26 Shay Bridge '28 |
Zi Burns '25 Jane Mckenzie '27 Isabel Brenner '28 Maggie Burnham '26 |
|
University of Central Florida | Knights | Ashley Flanagan '27 Emma Salomon '27 Rain Hong '28 |
Tyra Dimatteo '27 Gianna Gagliardi '28 Lia Maman '27 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
