| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
University of South Florida | Bulls | 10–2 |
| 2 |  |
University of Hawaii | Rainbows | 7–5 |
| 3 |  |
Rollins College | Tars | 6–6 |
| 4 |  |
Jacksonville University | Fins | 1–11 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 28,152 team race matches sailed before 2026-02-21, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 19 of 24 matches (79%) with a log-loss of 0.468 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness +0.09 ± 0.37: a typical event, more orderly than 52% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | University of South Florida Bulls | 1 | 7.25 school +0.06, home +0.36 | Ghislaine Van Empel / Catherine Brennan 2.16 Kailey Warrior / Madisen Hamai 2.58 Grace Jones / Melissa Janes 2.07 | 82% | 10–2 (83%) | +0.1 |
| 2 | University of Hawaii Rainbows | 3 | 5.89 school −0.16 | Elizabeth Fourney / Peyton Lieser Stella Taherian / Leila Landay Martha Schuessler / Amanda Turner 2.32 | 43% | 7–5 (58%) | +1.8 |
| 3 | Rollins College Tars | 2 | 6.40 school +0.06 | Annie Samis / Jane Mckenzie 2.39 Shay Bridge / Maggie Burnham 2.08 Julia Scott / Mollie Wood 1.88 2–2 Adelaide Matzky / Mollie Wood 2.04 3–1 Ka Hamner / Soleil Aurignac 1.56 1–3 | 58% | 6–6 (50%) | −1.0 |
| 4 | Jacksonville University Fins | 4 | 4.85 school −0.25 | Kaitlyn Liebel / Reagan Carris 2.37 Fiona Froelich / Cheyenne Dooley 1.97 Kaitlyn Anderson / Annie Mckenzie 0.71 | 16% | 1–11 (8%) | −0.9 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | University of Hawaii | 5.89 | 6.64 | 7–5 | 5.2 | +0.75 | 1.0 | 20% |
| 1 | University of South Florida | 7.25 | 7.33 | 10–2 | 9.9 | +0.08 | 0.0 | 64% |
| 3 | Rollins College | 6.40 | 5.96 | 6–6 | 7.0 | −0.44 | 0.3 | 85% |
| 4 | Jacksonville University | 4.85 | 4.07 | 1–11 | 1.9 | −0.78 | 0.5 | 89% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elizabeth Fourney | University of Hawaii | 1.40 | 2.15 | 7–5 | 5.2 | +0.75 | 1.0 | 20% |
| Stella Taherian | University of Hawaii | 2.11 | 2.86 | 7–5 | 5.2 | +0.75 | 1.0 | 20% |
| Martha Schuessler | University of Hawaii | 2.32 | 3.08 | 7–5 | 5.2 | +0.75 | 1.0 | 20% |
| Ghislaine Van Empel | University of South Florida | 2.16 | 2.24 | 10–2 | 9.9 | +0.08 | 0.0 | 64% |
| Kailey Warrior | University of South Florida | 2.58 | 2.66 | 10–2 | 9.9 | +0.08 | 0.0 | 64% |
| Grace Jones | University of South Florida | 2.07 | 2.15 | 10–2 | 9.9 | +0.08 | 0.0 | 64% |
| Ka Hamner | Rollins College | 1.56 | 1.58 | 1–3 | 1.0 | +0.02 | 0.0 | 68% |
| Annie Samis | Rollins College | 2.39 | 1.94 | 6–6 | 7.0 | −0.44 | 0.3 | 85% |
| Shay Bridge | Rollins College | 2.08 | 1.64 | 6–6 | 7.0 | −0.44 | 0.3 | 85% |
| Julia Scott | Rollins College | 1.88 | 1.29 | 2–2 | 2.6 | −0.59 | 0.3 | 87% |
| Adelaide Matzky | Rollins College | 2.04 | 1.38 | 3–1 | 3.4 | −0.66 | 0.2 | 90% |
| Kaitlyn Liebel | Jacksonville University | 2.37 | 1.59 | 1–11 | 1.9 | −0.78 | 0.5 | 89% |
| Fiona Froelich | Jacksonville University | 1.97 | 1.19 | 1–11 | 1.9 | −0.78 | 0.5 | 89% |
| Kaitlyn Anderson | Jacksonville University | 0.71 | -0.07 | 1–11 | 1.9 | −0.78 | 0.5 | 89% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | Bulls | Rainbows | Tars | Fins | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of South Florida Bulls | 3–0 | ✕ | W | W | W |
| University of Hawaii Rainbows | 1–2 | L | ✕ | L | W |
| Rollins College Tars | 2–1 | L | W | ✕ | W |
| Jacksonville University Fins | 0–3 | L | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Bulls | Rainbows | Tars | Fins | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of South Florida Bulls | 3–0 | ✕ | W | W | W |
| University of Hawaii Rainbows | 1–2 | L | ✕ | L | W |
| Rollins College Tars | 2–1 | L | W | ✕ | W |
| Jacksonville University Fins | 0–3 | L | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Bulls | Rainbows | Tars | Fins | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of South Florida Bulls | 1–2 | ✕ | L | L | W |
| University of Hawaii Rainbows | 3–0 | W | ✕ | W | W |
| Rollins College Tars | 2–1 | W | L | ✕ | W |
| Jacksonville University Fins | 0–3 | L | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Bulls | Rainbows | Tars | Fins | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of South Florida Bulls | 3–0 | ✕ | W | W | W |
| University of Hawaii Rainbows | 2–1 | L | ✕ | W | W |
| Rollins College Tars | 0–3 | L | L | ✕ | L |
| Jacksonville University Fins | 1–2 | L | L | W | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Bulls | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Fins | 4-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Tars | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Rainbows | 3-4-5 |
| 3 | |
Bulls | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Rainbows | 3-4-6 |
| 4 | |
Tars | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Fins | 1-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Rainbows | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Fins | 2-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Bulls | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Tars | 3-4-6 |
| 7 | |
Bulls | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Fins | 2-3-6 |
| 8 | |
Tars | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Rainbows | 2-4-6 |
| 9 | |
Bulls | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Rainbows | 3-4-5 |
| 10 | |
Tars | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Fins | 3-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Rainbows | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Fins | 4-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Bulls | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Tars | 3-4-5 |
| 13 | |
Bulls | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Fins | 3-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Rainbows | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Tars | 3-4-5 |
| 15 | |
Rainbows | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Bulls | 2-4-6 |
| 16 | |
Tars | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Fins | 1-4-6 |
| 17 | |
Rainbows | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Fins | 1-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Tars | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bulls | 3-4-6 |
| 19 | |
Bulls | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Fins | 2-5-6 |
| 20 | |
Rainbows | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Tars | 3-4-6 |
| 21 | |
Bulls | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Rainbows | 3-4-5 |
| 22 | |
Fins | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Tars | 3-4-6 |
| 23 | |
Rainbows | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Fins | 1-5-6 |
| 24 | |
Bulls | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Tars | 2-4-5 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
University of South Florida | Bulls | Ghislaine Van Empel '27 Grace Jones '28 Kailey Warrior '27 |
Catherine Brennan '26 Melissa Janes '26 Madisen Hamai '26 |
|
University of Hawaii | Rainbows | Elizabeth Fourney '27 Martha Schuessler '27 Stella Taherian '27 |
Peyton Lieser '26 Amanda Turner '27 Leila Landay '29 |
|
Rollins College | Tars | Adelaide Matzky '29 Annie Samis '29 Julia Scott '27 Ka Hamner '26 Shay Bridge '28 |
Mollie Wood '29 Jane Mckenzie '27 Soleil Aurignac '29 Maggie Burnham '26 |
|
Jacksonville University | Fins | Fiona Froelich '28 Kaitlyn Anderson '29 Kaitlyn Liebel '26 |
Cheyenne Dooley '28 Annie Mckenzie '29 Reagan Carris '26 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
