University of South Florida '28
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.62 (fleet 2.22) | 261 of 331 | +0.02 ± 0.16 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 42–40 (51%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 | 6 | 33–33 | — |
| Spring 2025 | 2 | 9–7 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 8 graded regattas (82 matches) the record is 42–40 against 40.0 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+2.0). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 7 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-10 | SAISA Women's Team Race Champs | skipper | 2.23 | 2.57 | 5–4 | 4.5 | +0.34 | 0.1 | 52% |
| 2026-04-04 | SAISA Open Team Race Championship | skipper | 2.19 | 2.45 | 6–12 | 5.4 | +0.26 | 0.1 | 45% |
| 2026-03-21 | St. John's Open Team Race | skipper | 2.10 | 3.74 | 6–4 | 2.9 | +1.64 | 3.6 | 3% |
| 2026-03-07 | 2026 Jen Harris Team Race | skipper | 2.15 | 0.36 | 1–8 | 3.1 | −1.79 | 2.4 | 99% |
| 2026-02-21 | USF Women's TR - Ashley Reynolds Reali Memorial | skipper | 2.12 | 2.10 | 10–2 | 10.0 | −0.02 | 0.0 | 69% |
| 2026-02-15 | SAISA Women's Top 6 Team Race | skipper | 2.18 | 1.64 | 5–3 | 5.5 | −0.55 | 0.2 | 87% |
| 2025-03-01 | Phebe Corckran King Women's Team Race | skipper | 1.78 | 1.96 | 5–5 | 4.7 | +0.17 | 0.0 | 56% |
| 2025-02-22 | USF Women's Team Race | skipper | 1.58 | 1.75 | 4–2 | 3.9 | +0.16 | 0.0 | 70% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2026 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Atlantic Coast Tournament Women's | Skipper | B | 14 | 7.9 | 1.95 |
| Stu Nelson @ Connecticut College 2026 | Skipper | A | 4 | 6.5 | 3.73 |
| SAISA Women's Top 9 Women's | Skipper | A | 4 | 9.5 | -0.49 |
| AllState Women's Sugar Bowl Women's | Skipper | B | 8 | 4.0 | -0.03 |
| Spring 2026 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Western National Semis Women's | Skipper | A | 2 | 14.0 | 1.84 |
| USF Women's TR - Ashley Reynolds Reali Memorial Women's | Skipper | TR | 12 | 83% | — |
| St. John's Open Team Race | Skipper | TR | 10 | 60% | — |
| SAISA Women's Top 6 Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 8 | 62% | — |
| SAISA Women's Top 6 Invite Women's | Skipper | C | 9 | 8.6 | -0.00 |
| SAISA Women's Top 9 Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 5.1 | 1.56 |
| SAISA Women's Team Race Champs Women's | Skipper | TR | 9 | 56% | — |
| SAISA Open Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 18 | 33% | — |
| 2026 Jen Harris Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 9 | 11% | — |
| Fall 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Atlantic Coast Tournament Women's | Skipper | B | 14 | 4.9 | 3.09 |
| Women's Atlantic Coast Championships Round 1A Women's | Skipper | B | 9 | 9.0 | 2.38 |
| SAISA South Top 6 Invitational | Skipper | C | 9 | 10.0 | -1.11 |
| SAISA South Fall Tournament | Skipper | A | 6 | 4.2 | 3.28 |
| SAISA Fall Women's Championship Women's | Skipper | B | 8 | 6.4 | -0.05 |
| Allstate Sugar Bowl (Women's) Women's | Skipper | C | 14 | 7.9 | -1.20 |
| Spring 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| USF Women's Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 11 | 54% | — |
| SAISA Women's Top 9 Women's | Skipper | B | 4 | 7.5 | -1.75 |
| Phebe Corckran King Women's Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 10 | 50% | — |
| Peter Wenner Rainbow Invite | Skipper | A | 12 | 8.3 | 2.12 |
| Bud Morrow Cup | Skipper | A | 8 | 2.2 | 3.26 |
| 2025 Florida Trophy | Skipper | A | 5 | 2.8 | 3.69 |
| Fall 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| Allstate Sugar Bowl Women's Regatta Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 11.1 | 0.35 |
| USF Trophy | Skipper | B | 4 | 5.5 | 1.85 |
| Stu Nelson@ Connecticut College Women's | Skipper | C | 10 | 7.2 | 2.28 |
| SAISA Top 9 Invite | Skipper | A | 3 | 9.3 | 1.86 |
| SAISA South Top 6 Invite | Skipper | B | 9 | 11.0 | -0.60 |
| Nickerson Trophy | Skipper | B | 12 | 10.0 | 1.70 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Grace Jones |  Darien High School |
'24 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
