| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
College of Charleston | Cougars | 10–0 |
| 2 |  |
University of South Florida | Bulls | 5–5 |
| 3 |  |
Jacksonville University | Fins | 0–10 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 25,143 team race matches sailed before 2025-03-01, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 15 of 15 matches (100%) with a log-loss of 0.214 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.81 ± 0.45: an orderly event, more orderly than 99% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | College of Charleston Cougars | 1 | 7.27 school +0.36 | Bella Shakespeare / Grace Beard 2.78 Ashley Alfortish / Indya Mason Katie Hanley / Barrett Lessing | 85% | 10–0 (100%) | +1.5 |
| 2 | University of South Florida Bulls | 2 | 5.96 school +0.09 | Kailey Warrior / Madisen Hamai 2.31 Sara Menesale / Heidi Hicks 1.72 Grace Jones / Macy Parke 1.78 | 47% | 5–5 (50%) | +0.3 |
| 3 | Jacksonville University Fins | 3 | 4.96 school −0.06 | Kaitlyn Liebel / Payton Ruth 2.13 Fiona Froelich / Elizabeth Williamson 1.83 Cheyenne Dooley / Amelia Sulciner | 18% | 0–10 (0%) | −1.8 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | College of Charleston | 7.27 | 10.27 | 10–0 | 8.5 | ≥+3.00 | 2.2 | 19% |
| 2 | University of South Florida | 5.96 | 6.13 | 5–5 | 4.7 | +0.17 | 0.0 | 56% |
| 3 | Jacksonville University | 4.96 | 1.96 | 0–10 | 1.8 | ≤−3.00 | 2.8 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bella Shakespeare | College of Charleston | 2.78 | 5.78 | 10–0 | 8.5 | ≥+3.00 | 2.2 | 19% |
| Ashley Alfortish | College of Charleston | 2.11 | 5.11 | 10–0 | 8.5 | ≥+3.00 | 2.2 | 19% |
| Cheyenne Dooley | Jacksonville University | 0.94 | -2.06 | 0–10 | 1.8 | ≤−3.00 | 2.8 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | Cougars | Bulls | Fins | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| College of Charleston Cougars | 2–0 | ✕ | W | W |
| University of South Florida Bulls | 1–1 | L | ✕ | W |
| Jacksonville University Fins | 0–2 | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Cougars | Bulls | Fins | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| College of Charleston Cougars | 2–0 | ✕ | W | W |
| University of South Florida Bulls | 1–1 | L | ✕ | W |
| Jacksonville University Fins | 0–2 | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Cougars | Bulls | Fins | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| College of Charleston Cougars | 2–0 | ✕ | W | W |
| University of South Florida Bulls | 1–1 | L | ✕ | W |
| Jacksonville University Fins | 0–2 | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Cougars | Bulls | Fins | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| College of Charleston Cougars | 2–0 | ✕ | W | W |
| University of South Florida Bulls | 1–1 | L | ✕ | W |
| Jacksonville University Fins | 0–2 | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Cougars | Bulls | Fins | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| College of Charleston Cougars | 2–0 | ✕ | W | W |
| University of South Florida Bulls | 1–1 | L | ✕ | W |
| Jacksonville University Fins | 0–2 | L | L | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Cougars | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Fins | 3-4-5 |
| 2 | |
Cougars | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Bulls | 1-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Bulls | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Fins | 3-4-5 |
| 4 | |
Cougars | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Fins | 3-4-6 |
| 5 | |
Cougars | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bulls | 4-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Bulls | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Fins | 2-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Cougars | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Fins | 4-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Cougars | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bulls | 3-4-5 |
| 9 | |
Bulls | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Fins | 2-3-6 |
| 10 | |
Cougars | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Fins | 3-4-6 |
| 11 | |
Cougars | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Bulls | 1-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Bulls | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Fins | 2-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Cougars | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Fins | 3-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Cougars | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bulls | 3-4-6 |
| 15 | |
Bulls | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Fins | 3-4-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
College of Charleston | Cougars | Ashley Alfortish '27 Bella Shakespeare '27 Katie Hanley '26 |
Indya Mason '27 Grace Beard '25 Barrett Lessing '25 |
|
University of South Florida | Bulls | Grace Jones '28 Kailey Warrior '27 Sara Menesale '28 |
Macy Parke '28 Madisen Hamai '26 Heidi Hicks '25 |
|
Jacksonville University | Fins | Cheyenne Dooley '28 Fiona Froelich '28 Kaitlyn Liebel '26 |
Amelia Sulciner '28 Elizabeth Williamson '26 Payton Ruth '26 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 3% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
