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St. John's Open Team Race

# SchoolTeam Rec.
1 College of Charleston College of Charleston Lady Cougars 10–0
2 University of South Florida University of South Florida Bulls Women 6–4
3 Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Fins 6–4
4 University of Miami University of Miami Hurricanes 4–6
5 Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Spinners 3–7
6 University of South Florida University of South Florida Bulls 1–9

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 29,369 team race matches sailed before 2026-03-21, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 19 of 30 matches (63%) with a log-loss of 0.501 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.07 ± 0.37: a typical event, more orderly than 35% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

PlaceSchool Pred. Strength Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) Pred. win % Recordvs forecast
1College of Charleston
Lady Cougars		18.93
school +0.48		Ashley Alfortish / Lucy Zinn 2.85
Bella Shakespeare / Lucy Elvart 3.17
Georgia Shuster / Gaelen Adam 2.42		95%10–0 (100%)+0.5
2University of South Florida
Bulls Women		65.42Grace Jones / Melissa Janes 2.06
Sara Menesale / Ruth Bergman 2.01
Reese Ambrose / Catherine Brennan 1.30		30%6–4 (60%)+3.0
3Jacksonville University
Fins		26.89
school −0.19		Darby Smith / Natalie Dunlap 2.43
Joshua Knowles / Nilias Vidarte 2.60
Mason Mattice / Annie Mckenzie		64%6–4 (60%)−0.4
4University of Miami
Hurricanes		55.48
school +0.53		Josh Becher / Aidan Weirich 1.99
Oliver West / Isabelle Bornebusch 1.64
Harbor Scheuermann / Georgie Patterson		31%4–6 (40%)+0.9
5Jacksonville University
Spinners		45.78
school −0.19		Kaitlyn Liebel / Frances Hanson 2.23
Fiona Froelich / Cheyenne Dooley 1.94
Sean Ellison / Roman Borger		39%3–7 (30%)−0.9
6University of South Florida
Bulls		35.92Efe Guder / Macy Parke 2.69
Garrett Floerchinger / Sienna Curcio 1.38
Zach O'Connor / Hannes Leonard 1.78		42%1–9 (10%)−3.2

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

PlaceSchoolStrength Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
1College of Charleston Lady Cougars8.9311.9310–09.5≥+3.000.857%
2University of South Florida Bulls Women5.427.016–43.0+1.593.43%
4University of Miami Hurricanes5.485.954–63.1+0.470.337%
3Jacksonville University Fins6.896.656–46.4−0.250.178%
5Jacksonville University Spinners5.785.323–73.9−0.460.384%
6University of South Florida Bulls5.923.821–94.2−2.104.2>99%

By skipper

SkipperSchoolValue Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
Ashley AlfortishCollege of Charleston2.855.8510–09.5≥+3.000.857%
Bella ShakespeareCollege of Charleston3.176.1710–09.5≥+3.000.857%
Georgia ShusterCollege of Charleston2.425.4210–09.5≥+3.000.857%
Grace JonesUniversity of South Florida2.063.656–43.0+1.593.43%
Sara MenesaleUniversity of South Florida2.013.606–43.0+1.593.43%
Reese AmbroseUniversity of South Florida1.302.896–43.0+1.593.43%
Josh BecherUniversity of Miami1.992.464–63.1+0.470.337%
Oliver WestUniversity of Miami1.642.114–63.1+0.470.337%
Harbor ScheuermannUniversity of Miami1.181.654–63.1+0.470.337%
Darby SmithJacksonville University2.432.186–46.4−0.250.178%
Joshua KnowlesJacksonville University2.602.366–46.4−0.250.178%
Mason MatticeJacksonville University1.911.666–46.4−0.250.178%
Kaitlyn LiebelJacksonville University2.231.773–73.9−0.460.384%
Fiona FroelichJacksonville University1.941.483–73.9−0.460.384%
Sean EllisonJacksonville University1.771.313–73.9−0.460.384%
Efe GuderUniversity of South Florida2.690.591–94.2−2.104.2>99%
Garrett FloerchingerUniversity of South Florida1.38-0.721–94.2−2.104.2>99%
Zach O'ConnorUniversity of South Florida1.78-0.321–94.2−2.104.2>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd#WinnerLoser P(winner)
11University of Miami HurricanesJacksonville University Spinners40%upset
12Jacksonville University FinsUniversity of South Florida Bulls71%
13College of Charleston Lady CougarsUniversity of South Florida Bulls Women97%
14Jacksonville University FinsJacksonville University Spinners74%
15University of South Florida Bulls WomenUniversity of Miami Hurricanes50%
16College of Charleston Lady CougarsUniversity of South Florida Bulls95%
17University of South Florida Bulls WomenJacksonville University Fins19%upset
18Jacksonville University SpinnersUniversity of South Florida Bulls47%upset
19College of Charleston Lady CougarsUniversity of Miami Hurricanes97%
110University of South Florida Bulls WomenUniversity of South Florida Bulls38%upset
111Jacksonville University FinsUniversity of Miami Hurricanes81%
112College of Charleston Lady CougarsJacksonville University Spinners96%
113University of Miami HurricanesUniversity of South Florida Bulls39%upset
114University of South Florida Bulls WomenJacksonville University Spinners41%upset
115College of Charleston Lady CougarsJacksonville University Fins88%
216Jacksonville University FinsUniversity of South Florida Bulls Women82%
217College of Charleston Lady CougarsUniversity of Miami Hurricanes97%
218Jacksonville University SpinnersUniversity of South Florida Bulls46%upset
219College of Charleston Lady CougarsUniversity of South Florida Bulls Women97%
220Jacksonville University FinsUniversity of South Florida Bulls73%
221University of Miami HurricanesJacksonville University Spinners43%upset
222University of South Florida Bulls WomenUniversity of South Florida Bulls37%upset
223College of Charleston Lady CougarsJacksonville University Spinners96%
224University of Miami HurricanesJacksonville University Fins20%upset
225College of Charleston Lady CougarsUniversity of South Florida Bulls95%
226Jacksonville University FinsJacksonville University Spinners76%
227University of South Florida Bulls WomenUniversity of Miami Hurricanes47%upset
228College of Charleston Lady CougarsJacksonville University Fins88%
229University of South Florida BullsUniversity of Miami Hurricanes60%
230Jacksonville University SpinnersUniversity of South Florida Bulls Women59%

Round 1

TeamRec.CougarsWomenFinsHurricanesSpinnersBulls
College of Charleston Lady Cougars5–0✕WWWWW
University of South Florida Bulls Women4–6L✕WLW✕
Jacksonville University Fins4–6LL✕W✕L
University of Miami Hurricanes2–3LWL✕LW
Jacksonville University Spinners4–6LL✕W✕L
University of South Florida Bulls4–6L✕WLW✕

Round 2

TeamRec.CougarsWomenFinsHurricanesSpinnersBulls
College of Charleston Lady Cougars5–0✕WWWWW
University of South Florida Bulls Women3–7L✕LWL✕
Jacksonville University Fins5–5LW✕L✕W
University of Miami Hurricanes2–3LLW✕WL
Jacksonville University Spinners5–5LW✕L✕W
University of South Florida Bulls3–7L✕LWL✕
# Winner Loser Pos.
1 University of Miami Hurricanes 1-3-6 def. Jacksonville University Spinners 2-4-5
2 Jacksonville University Fins 1-2-4 def. University of South Florida Bulls 3-5-6
3 College of Charleston Lady Cougars 2-3-4 def. University of South Florida Bulls Women 1-5-6
4 Jacksonville University Fins 1-2-4 def. Jacksonville University Spinners 3-5-6
5 University of South Florida Bulls Women 1-2-6 def. University of Miami Hurricanes 3-4-5
6 College of Charleston Lady Cougars 1-2-6 def. University of South Florida Bulls 3-4-5
7 University of South Florida Bulls Women 1-2-4 def. Jacksonville University Fins 3-5-6
8 Jacksonville University Spinners 1-2-6 def. University of South Florida Bulls 3-4-5
9 College of Charleston Lady Cougars 1-2-3 def. University of Miami Hurricanes 4-5-6
10 University of South Florida Bulls Women 2-3-4 def. University of South Florida Bulls 1-5-6
11 Jacksonville University Fins 1-2-3 def. University of Miami Hurricanes 4-5-6
12 College of Charleston Lady Cougars 1-3-5 def. Jacksonville University Spinners 2-4-6
13 University of Miami Hurricanes 1-2-6 def. University of South Florida Bulls 3-4-5
14 University of South Florida Bulls Women 1-2-6 def. Jacksonville University Spinners 3-4-5
15 College of Charleston Lady Cougars 2-3-4 def. Jacksonville University Fins 1-5-6
16 Jacksonville University Fins 1-2-5 def. University of South Florida Bulls Women 3-4-6
17 College of Charleston Lady Cougars 1-2-6 def. University of Miami Hurricanes 3-4-5
18 Jacksonville University Spinners 1-2-6 def. University of South Florida Bulls 3-4-5
19 College of Charleston Lady Cougars 1-2-3 def. University of South Florida Bulls Women 4-5-6
20 Jacksonville University Fins 1-3-6 def. University of South Florida Bulls 2-4-5
21 University of Miami Hurricanes 1-3-6 def. Jacksonville University Spinners 2-4-5
22 University of South Florida Bulls Women 1-2-3 def. University of South Florida Bulls 4-5-6
23 College of Charleston Lady Cougars 1-2-6 def. Jacksonville University Spinners 3-4-5
24 University of Miami Hurricanes 1-3-5 def. Jacksonville University Fins 2-4-6
25 College of Charleston Lady Cougars 1-2-4 def. University of South Florida Bulls 3-5-6
26 Jacksonville University Fins 1-2-6 def. Jacksonville University Spinners 3-4-5
27 University of South Florida Bulls Women 1-2-3 def. University of Miami Hurricanes 4-5-6 DNF,DNF
28 College of Charleston Lady Cougars 1-3-6 def. Jacksonville University Fins 2-4-5
29 University of South Florida Bulls 2-3-4 def. University of Miami Hurricanes 1-5-6
30 Jacksonville University Spinners 1-2-3 def. University of South Florida Bulls Women 4-5-6

Conditions — 03/21/2026 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 43%  ·  Pressure 1017.7 hPa

Temperature

72°F
↑ 83°F   ↓ 52°F
Feels like 70°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.2 kn
avg  ·  max 7.9 kn
Gusts to 19.4 kn
From W (265°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover9% Sunshine10.1 hrs Humidity43% Pressure1017.7 hPa

What this breeze does at Jacksonville — from fleet racing

Breeze: W about 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Jacksonville in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.08)
Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.08 means a rating gap counts about 7% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Jacksonville by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (22 labelled fleet-race days at Jacksonville).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →