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Allstate Sugar Bowl Women's Regatta

# SchoolTeam TOT
1 Tulane University Tulane University Green Wave Women 132
2 Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal 165
3 College of Charleston College of Charleston Cougars 182
4 Tulane University Tulane University Riptide 230
5 Tulane University Tulane University Angry Wave 259
6 University of South Florida University of South Florida Bulls 1 262
7 Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Fins 328
8 University of South Florida University of South Florida Bulls 2 346
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 R14 TOT Sailors
Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal A 5 2 2 4 2 1 1 3 1 2 2 7 11 3 46 Sophie Fisher '26
Piper Blackband '28
Tulane University Tulane University Green Wave Women A 1 4 4 2 3 9 6 5 10 8 4 6 1 2 65 Samantha Gardner '27
Hope Breslin '26
Tulane University Tulane University Green Wave Women B 9 1 9 8 7 2 5 2 4 3 1 1 2 13 67 Ava Anderson '27
Ella May Corckran '26
College of Charleston College of Charleston Cougars A 6 10 3 5 9 3 2 1 3 6 11 4 3 4 70 Emily Alfortish '25
Lucy Elvart '28
Tulane University Tulane University Riptide B 3 3 6 16 16 12 10 6 12 4 3 2 6 7 106 Mira Herlihy '27
Taylor Bartell '28
College of Charleston College of Charleston Cougars B 4 13 15 3 5 8 3 7 8 10 14 5 9 8 112 Ashley Alfortish '27
Marina Dryer '26
Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal B 7 5 11 9 14 14 9 12 5 1 5 13 8 6 119 Ava Cornell '28
Alexandra Jones '28
Tulane University Tulane University Riptide A 2 8 13 6 1 7 4 8 7 16 15 14 13 10 124 Oakley Cunningham '27 [1-12]
Ashley Hoguet '26 [13-14]
Ellie Spearman '25 [1-12]
Parker Kumler '27 [13-14]
Tulane University Tulane University Angry Wave A 12 6 1 10 4 5 14 9 11 13 10 3 16 12 126 Lucy Spearman '25
Elizabeth Struve '28
University of South Florida University of South Florida Bulls 1 A 10 11 10 1 6 11 13 15 16 7 13 9 7 1 130 Kay Brunsvold '25 [1-14]
Macy Parke '28 [1-8]
Madisen Hamai '26 [9-14]
University of South Florida University of South Florida Bulls 1 B 16 12 8 12 10 4 7 13 2 11 8 11 4 14 132 Kalea Woodard '24 [1-14]
Madisen Hamai '26 [1-8]
Macy Parke '28 [9-14]
Tulane University Tulane University Angry Wave B 8 9 5 11 12 15 16 4 14 5 9 8 12 5 133 Lola Kohl '28
Cj Ricci '25
Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Fins A 11 16 14 14 8 6 8 16 15 15 7 10 5 9 154 Agija Elerte '26
Cheyenne Dooley '28
University of South Florida University of South Florida Bulls 2 A 15 7 7 15 15 10 11 14 6 9 6 15 14 11 155 Grace Jones '28
Heidi Hicks '25
Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Fins B 13 14 12 7 11 16 15 10 9 12 12 12 15 16 174 Kaitlyn Liebel '26
Payton Ruth '26
University of South Florida University of South Florida Bulls 2 B 14 15 16 13 13 13 12 11 13 14 16 16 10 15 191 Sara Menesale '28
Mercedes Newland Cespedes '24
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.100+0.10
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2024 (6 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A11A12A13A14A
College of CharlestonCollege of Charleston Cougars11223344556677
Jacksonville UniversityJacksonville University Fins221116161515141413131212
University of South FloridaUniversity of South Florida Bulls 17788991010111112121313
University of South FloridaUniversity of South Florida Bulls 288776655443322
Stanford UniversityStanford University Cardinal33445566778899
Tulane UniversityTulane University Angry Wave556677889910101111
Tulane UniversityTulane University Green Wave Women44332211161615151414
Tulane UniversityTulane University Riptide6655443322111616

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B11B12B13B14B
College of CharlestonCollege of Charleston Cougars99101011111212131314141515
Jacksonville UniversityJacksonville University Fins1010998877665544
University of South FloridaUniversity of South Florida Bulls 1151516161122334455
University of South FloridaUniversity of South Florida Bulls 21616151514141313121211111010
Stanford UniversityStanford University Cardinal11111212131314141515161611
Tulane UniversityTulane University Angry Wave1313141415151616112233
Tulane UniversityTulane University Green Wave Women12121111101099887766
Tulane UniversityTulane University Riptide141413131212111110109988

Conditions — 09/21/2024 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 66%  ·  Pressure 1013.3 hPa

Temperature

85°F
↑ 88°F   ↓ 81°F
Feels like 93°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.0 kn
avg  ·  max 5.9 kn
Gusts to 13.0 kn
From E (80°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover17% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity66% Pressure1013.3 hPa Rain0.03 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NE 7 kn · E 10 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Tulane: a favourites’ day (+0.09)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment −0.10 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.01
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.19 ± 0.16)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.09 means a rating gap counts about 7% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Tulane by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (38 labelled days at Tulane).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →