2026 Jen Harris Team Race

HostNavy
Date03/07/2026
TypeCross Regional
Boat420/FJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Stanford University	Cardinal	8–0
2	Brown University	Bears	8–1
3	Cornell University	Big Red	6–2
4	Harvard University	Crimson	6–3
5	Tufts University	Jumbos	6–3
6	Old Dominion University	Monarchs	4–5
7	University of Pennsylvania	Quakers	4–5
8	Georgetown University	Hoyas	3–6
9	U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	3–6
10	Rollins College	Tars	2–7
11	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Statesmen	2–7
12	University of South Florida	Bulls	1–8

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 28,606 team race matches sailed before 2026-03-07, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 41 of 53 matches (77%) with a log-loss of 0.492 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.38 ± 0.25: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 14% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Stanford University Cardinal	1	10.80 school +0.31	Ellie Harned / Alexandra Jones 3.48 7–0 Sophie Fisher / Piper Blackband 3.83 6–0 Samara Walshe / Kit Harned 3.55 6–0 Piper Blackband / Sophie Fisher 1–0 Kit Harned / Samara Walshe 2.64 1–0 Samara Walshe / Sophie Fisher 3.63 1–0 Piper Blackband / Alexandra Jones 1–0 Kit Harned / Ellie Harned 2.74 1–0	96%	8–0 (100%)	+0.3
2	Brown University Bears	2	10.36 school +0.26	Katharine Doble / Reese Corckran 3.48 Laura Hamilton / Katherine Majette 3.60 7–1 Katherine Mcnamara / Gabby Collins 3.12 6–1 Sidney Moyer / Gabby Collins 2.60 2–0 Laura Hamilton / Leila Pfrang 3.63 1–0	90%	8–1 (89%)	−0.1
3	Cornell University Big Red	3	9.41 school −0.11	Sophia Devling / Sophia Mulvania 3.58 Winborne Majette / Maya Conway 3.11 4–2 Gilda Dondona / Paulina Freyre 2.85 4–1 Ava Gustafson / Grace Penque 2.46 2–1 Winborne Majette / Ava Stevens 3.29 2–0	79%	6–2 (75%)	−0.3
4	Harvard University Crimson	4	9.68 school +0.24	Kate Danielson / Jj Drummond 3.19 Sophia Montgomery / Hanah Youn 2.76 Zoey Ziskind / Amelie Zucker 3.48 3–2 Zoey Ziskind / Peyton Hadfield 3.44 3–1	77%	6–3 (67%)	−0.9
5	Tufts University Jumbos	5	9.30 school +0.36	Sophia Hubbard / Lilah Parker 3.01 Maddie Janzen / Lilly Ladd 3.03 Ella Hubbard / Eloise Goedkoop 2.89	62%	6–3 (67%)	+0.4
6	Old Dominion University Monarchs	7	7.56 school +0.29	Gianna Dewey / Petra Humphrey 2.31 Marina Conde / Molly Hanson 2.76 Arabella Duer / Morgan Auth 2.24 3–3 Olivia Gilmore / Morgan Auth 2.04 1–2	39%	4–5 (44%)	+0.5
7	University of Pennsylvania Quakers	12	6.00 school +0.11	Esme Gonzalez / Janet Fu 1.90 Adra Ivancich / Eva Gonzalez-Whitehouse 2.69 Sadie Yoder / Pelin Yuksel 1.23	11%	4–5 (44%)	+3.0
8	Georgetown University Hoyas	6	8.62 school +0.21	Alexa Shea / Helen O’Neill 1.88 Kelly Bates / Anna Brzezinski 3.28 Emily Doble / Ellie Smith 3.22	50%	3–6 (33%)	−1.5
9	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	10	6.84 school +0.17, home +0.36	Ava Farley / Eleanor Niehoff 2.37 Josephine Sherry / Sarah Mcnelly Kate Zurinskas / Mary Dwyer 1.79	22%	3–6 (33%)	+1.0
10	Rollins College Tars	9	6.60	Annie Samis / Jane Mckenzie 2.44 Shay Bridge / Maggie Burnham 2.08 2–4 Adelaide Matzky / Julia Scott 2.06 0–4 Adelaide Matzky / Mollie Wood 2.04 2–1 Shay Bridge / Mollie Wood 2.05 0–2 Julia Scott / Adelaide Matzky 2.11 0–2 Julia Scott / Maggie Burnham 2.13 0–1	28%	2–7 (22%)	−0.5
11	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	11	6.50 school +0.15	Deana Fedulova / Cara Brickhouse 2.47 Sabrina Starck / Olivia Wilkins 2.33 Lauren Campbell / Reilly Roedel 2–4 Moira Padilla / Reilly Roedel 0–3	20%	2–7 (22%)	+0.2
12	University of South Florida Bulls	8	6.91	Ghislaine Van Empel / Catherine Brennan 2.20 Grace Jones / Melissa Janes 2.10 Kailey Warrior / Madisen Hamai 2.55	33%	1–8 (11%)	−2.0

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
1	Stanford University	10.80	13.80	8–0	7.7	≥+3.00	0.5	71%
7	University of Pennsylvania	6.00	8.44	4–5	1.0	+2.45	5.9	1%
9	U. S. Naval Academy	6.84	7.70	3–6	2.0	+0.86	0.6	31%
6	Old Dominion University	7.56	7.93	4–5	3.5	+0.36	0.1	51%
5	Tufts University	9.30	9.61	6–3	5.6	+0.31	0.1	54%
11	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	6.50	6.65	2–7	1.8	+0.15	0.0	60%
2	Brown University	10.36	10.17	8–1	8.1	−0.18	0.0	80%
3	Cornell University	9.41	9.11	6–2	6.3	−0.30	0.1	80%
10	Rollins College	6.60	6.22	2–7	2.5	−0.38	0.1	80%
4	Harvard University	9.68	8.93	6–3	6.9	−0.75	0.5	91%
8	Georgetown University	8.62	7.45	3–6	4.5	−1.18	1.2	97%
12	University of South Florida	6.91	5.18	1–8	3.0	−1.73	2.3	99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Ellie Harned	Stanford University	3.48	6.48	7–0	6.7	≥+3.00	0.4	73%
Sophie Fisher	Stanford University	3.83	6.83	6–0	5.7	≥+3.00	0.4	74%
Samara Walshe	Stanford University	3.55	6.55	7–0	6.7	≥+3.00	0.4	73%
Esme Gonzalez	University of Pennsylvania	1.90	4.34	4–5	1.0	+2.45	5.9	1%
Adra Ivancich	University of Pennsylvania	2.69	5.14	4–5	1.0	+2.45	5.9	1%
Sadie Yoder	University of Pennsylvania	1.23	3.67	4–5	1.0	+2.45	5.9	1%
Arabella Duer	Old Dominion University	2.24	3.33	3–3	2.1	+1.09	0.7	31%
Ava Farley	U. S. Naval Academy	2.37	3.23	3–6	2.0	+0.86	0.6	31%
Josephine Sherry	U. S. Naval Academy	2.13	2.99	3–6	2.0	+0.86	0.6	31%
Kate Zurinskas	U. S. Naval Academy	1.79	2.65	3–6	2.0	+0.86	0.6	31%
Lauren Campbell	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	1.40	2.21	2–4	1.3	+0.81	0.4	38%
Gilda Dondona	Cornell University	2.85	3.30	4–1	3.7	+0.45	0.1	59%
Gianna Dewey	Old Dominion University	2.31	2.68	4–5	3.5	+0.36	0.1	51%
Marina Conde	Old Dominion University	2.76	3.12	4–5	3.5	+0.36	0.1	51%
Sophia Hubbard	Tufts University	3.01	3.32	6–3	5.6	+0.31	0.1	54%
Maddie Janzen	Tufts University	3.03	3.34	6–3	5.6	+0.31	0.1	54%
Ella Hubbard	Tufts University	2.89	3.20	6–3	5.6	+0.31	0.1	54%
Deana Fedulova	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	2.47	2.62	2–7	1.8	+0.15	0.0	60%
Sabrina Starck	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	2.33	2.48	2–7	1.8	+0.15	0.0	60%
Shay Bridge	Rollins College	2.08	2.02	2–6	2.1	−0.06	0.0	70%
Laura Hamilton	Brown University	3.60	3.42	8–1	8.1	−0.18	0.0	80%
Katharine Doble	Brown University	3.48	3.30	8–1	8.1	−0.18	0.0	80%
Katherine Mcnamara	Brown University	3.12	2.86	6–1	6.2	−0.26	0.0	82%
Adelaide Matzky	Rollins College	2.06	1.78	2–5	2.3	−0.28	0.1	77%
Sophia Devling	Cornell University	3.58	3.29	6–2	6.3	−0.30	0.1	80%
Winborne Majette	Cornell University	3.11	2.82	6–2	6.3	−0.30	0.1	80%
Annie Samis	Rollins College	2.44	2.06	2–7	2.5	−0.38	0.1	80%
Olivia Gilmore	Old Dominion University	2.04	1.31	1–2	1.4	−0.73	0.2	89%
Kate Danielson	Harvard University	3.19	2.44	6–3	6.9	−0.75	0.5	91%
Sophia Montgomery	Harvard University	2.76	2.00	6–3	6.9	−0.75	0.5	91%
Zoey Ziskind	Harvard University	3.48	2.73	6–3	6.9	−0.75	0.5	91%
Alexa Shea	Georgetown University	1.88	0.70	3–6	4.5	−1.18	1.2	97%
Kelly Bates	Georgetown University	3.28	2.10	3–6	4.5	−1.18	1.2	97%
Emily Doble	Georgetown University	3.22	2.04	3–6	4.5	−1.18	1.2	97%
Ava Gustafson	Cornell University	2.46	1.00	2–1	2.7	−1.47	0.8	97%
Ghislaine Van Empel	University of South Florida	2.20	0.47	1–8	3.0	−1.73	2.3	99%
Grace Jones	University of South Florida	2.10	0.37	1–8	3.0	−1.73	2.3	99%
Kailey Warrior	University of South Florida	2.55	0.82	1–8	3.0	−1.73	2.3	99%
Julia Scott	Rollins College	2.11	-0.89	0–3	0.6	≤−3.00	1.0	>99%
Moira Padilla	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	1.34	-1.66	0–3	0.6	≤−3.00	1.0	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Tufts University	University of Pennsylvania	97%
1	2	Georgetown University	U. S. Naval Academy	85%
1	3	Old Dominion University	Cornell University	19%	upset
1	4	Harvard University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	96%
1	5	Brown University	Rollins College	98%
1	6	Stanford University	University of South Florida	99%
1	7	Tufts University	Georgetown University	67%
1	8	Cornell University	University of Pennsylvania	97%
1	9	Harvard University	U. S. Naval Academy	95%
1	10	Brown University	Old Dominion University	95%
1	11	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	University of South Florida	39%	upset
1	12	Stanford University	Rollins College	98%
1	13	Cornell University	Georgetown University	71%
1	14	Harvard University	Tufts University	60%
1	15	Brown University	University of Pennsylvania	98%
1	16	U. S. Naval Academy	University of South Florida	48%	upset
1	17	Old Dominion University	Rollins College	74%
1	18	Stanford University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	98%
1	19	Cornell University	Harvard University	47%	upset
1	20	Brown University	Georgetown University	86%
1	21	Tufts University	University of South Florida	92%
1	22	University of Pennsylvania	Rollins College	36%	upset
1	23	U. S. Naval Academy	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	57%
1	24	Stanford University	Old Dominion University	97%
1	25	Brown University	Harvard University	68%
1	26	Cornell University	University of South Florida	91%
1	27	Georgetown University	Rollins College	88%
1	28	Tufts University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	94%
1	29	Old Dominion University	University of Pennsylvania	84%
1	30	Stanford University	U. S. Naval Academy	99%
1	31	Brown University	University of South Florida	97%
1	32	Harvard University	Rollins College	95%
1	33	Cornell University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	95%
1	34	Georgetown University	Old Dominion University	73%
1	35	Tufts University	U. S. Naval Academy	92%
1	36	Stanford University	University of Pennsylvania	98%
1	37	University of South Florida	Rollins College	57%
1	38	Brown University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	97%
1	39	Harvard University	Old Dominion University	90%
1	40	Cornell University	U. S. Naval Academy	94%
1	41	University of Pennsylvania	Georgetown University	7%	upset
1	42	Stanford University	Tufts University	87%
1	43	Rollins College	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	53%
1	44	Old Dominion University	University of South Florida	63%
1	45	U. S. Naval Academy	Brown University	3%	upset
1	46	University of Pennsylvania	Harvard University	2%	upset
1	47	Tufts University	Cornell University	43%	upset
1	48	Stanford University	Georgetown University	93%
1	49	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Old Dominion University	32%	upset
1	50	Rollins College	U. S. Naval Academy	43%	upset
1	51	University of Pennsylvania	University of South Florida	29%	upset
1	52	Brown University	Tufts University	76%
1	53	Harvard University	Georgetown University	75%

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Cardinal	Bears	Red	Crimson	Jumbos	Monarchs	Quakers	Hoyas	Midshipmen	Tars	Statesmen	Bulls
Stanford University Cardinal	10–1	✕	L	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Brown University Bears	10–1	W	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	L	W	W	W
Cornell University Big Red	6–5	L	L	✕	W	L	L	W	W	W	L	W	W
Harvard University Crimson	6–5	L	L	L	✕	W	W	L	W	W	W	W	L
Tufts University Jumbos	6–5	L	L	W	L	✕	L	W	W	W	L	W	W
Old Dominion University Monarchs	6–5	L	L	W	L	W	✕	W	L	W	W	L	W
University of Pennsylvania Quakers	4–7	L	L	L	W	L	L	✕	W	L	W	L	W
Georgetown University Hoyas	3–8	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	✕	W	W	L	L
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	4–7	L	W	L	L	L	L	W	L	✕	L	W	W
Rollins College Tars	4–7	L	L	W	L	W	L	L	L	W	✕	W	L
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	4–7	L	L	L	L	L	W	W	W	L	L	✕	W
University of South Florida Bulls	3–8	L	L	L	W	L	L	L	W	L	W	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Jumbos	1-2-4	def.	Quakers	3-5-6
2	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Midshipmen	4-5-6
3	Monarchs	2-3-4	def.	Big Red	1-5-6
4	Crimson	1-2-4	def.	Statesmen	3-5-6
5	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Tars	4-5-6
6	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Bulls	4-5-6
7	Jumbos	1-2-4	def.	Hoyas	3-5-6
8	Big Red	1-2-5	def.	Quakers	3-4-6
9	Crimson	2-3-4	def.	Midshipmen	1-5-6
10	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Monarchs	3-5-6
11	Statesmen	1-2-5	def.	Bulls	3-4-6
12	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Tars	3-5-6
13	Big Red	2-3-4	def.	Hoyas	1-5-6
14	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Jumbos	4-5-6
15	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Quakers	3-4-6
16	Midshipmen	1-2-6	def.	Bulls	3-4-5
17	Monarchs	1-4-5	def.	Tars	2-3-6
18	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Statesmen	4-5-6
19	Big Red	1-2-6	def.	Crimson	3-4-5
20	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Hoyas	4-5-6
21	Jumbos	1-2-4	def.	Bulls	3-5-6
22	Quakers	1-2-3	def.	Tars	4-5-6
23	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Statesmen	3-4-6
24	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Monarchs	4-5-6
25	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Crimson	3-4-6
26	Big Red	1-2-4	def.	Bulls	3-5-6
27	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Tars	4-5-6
28	Jumbos	2-3-4	def.	Statesmen	1-5-6
29	Monarchs	1-2-3	def.	Quakers	4-5-6
30	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Midshipmen	4-5-6
31	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Bulls	3-4-6
32	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Tars	4-5-6
33	Big Red	1-3-5	def.	Statesmen	2-4-6
34	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Monarchs	3-4-5
35	Jumbos	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
36	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Quakers	4-5-6
37	Bulls	2-3-4	def.	Tars	1-5-6
38	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Statesmen	3-5-6
39	Crimson	1-2-4	def.	Monarchs	3-5-6
40	Big Red	1-2-3	def.	Midshipmen	4-5-6
41	Quakers	1-2-6	def.	Hoyas	3-4-5
42	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Jumbos	3-5-6
43	Tars	1-2-5	def.	Statesmen	3-4-6
44	Monarchs	1-2-5	def.	Bulls	3-4-6
45	Midshipmen	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
46	Quakers	1-3-4	def.	Crimson	2-5-6
47	Jumbos	2-3-4	def.	Big Red	1-5-6
48	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Hoyas	3-5-6
49	Statesmen	2-3-4	def.	Monarchs	1-5-6
50	Tars	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
51	Quakers	2-3-4	def.	Bulls	1-5-6
52	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Jumbos	4-5-6
53	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Hoyas	3-4-6
54	Cardinal		def.	Big Red
55	Monarchs		def.	Midshipmen
56	Statesmen		def.	Quakers
57	Tars		def.	Jumbos
58	Bulls		def.	Hoyas
59	Bears		def.	Big Red
60	Cardinal		def.	Crimson
61	Midshipmen		def.	Quakers
62	Monarchs		def.	Jumbos
63	Statesmen		def.	Hoyas
64	Tars		def.	Big Red
65	Bulls		def.	Crimson
66	Bears		def.	Cardinal

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Stanford University	Cardinal	Ellie Harned '26 Kit Harned '27 Piper Blackband '28 Samara Walshe '29 Sophie Fisher '26	Alexandra Jones '28 Ellie Harned '26 Samara Walshe '29 Sophie Fisher '26 Kit Harned '27 Piper Blackband '28
Brown University	Bears	Katharine Doble '26 Katherine Mcnamara '26 Laura Hamilton '27 Sidney Moyer '27	Reese Corckran '28 Gabby Collins '28 Katherine Majette '27 Leila Pfrang '29
Cornell University	Big Red	Ava Gustafson '28 Gilda Dondona '28 Sophia Devling '26 Winborne Majette '27	Grace Penque '29 Paulina Freyre '29 Sophia Mulvania '26 Maya Conway '26 Ava Stevens '28
Harvard University	Crimson	Kate Danielson '28 Sophia Montgomery '25 Zoey Ziskind '27	Jj Drummond '27 Hanah Youn '28 Amelie Zucker '28 Peyton Hadfield '27
Tufts University	Jumbos	Ella Hubbard '26 Maddie Janzen '29 Sophia Hubbard '28	Eloise Goedkoop '27 Lilly Ladd '26 Lilah Parker '26
Old Dominion University	Monarchs	Arabella Duer '29 Gianna Dewey '27 Marina Conde '28 Olivia Gilmore '27	Morgan Auth '27 Petra Humphrey '29 Molly Hanson '27
University of Pennsylvania	Quakers	Adra Ivancich '26 Esme Gonzalez '28 Sadie Yoder '28	Eva Gonzalez-Whitehouse '26 Janet Fu '27 Pelin Yuksel '28
Georgetown University	Hoyas	Alexa Shea '26 Emily Doble '28 Kelly Bates '26	Helen O’Neill '27 Ellie Smith '28 Anna Brzezinski '27
U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	Ava Farley '26 Josephine Sherry '27 Kate Zurinskas '27	Eleanor Niehoff '26 Sarah Mcnelly '28 Mary Dwyer '27
Rollins College	Tars	Adelaide Matzky '29 Annie Samis '29 Julia Scott '27 Shay Bridge '28	Julia Scott '27 Mollie Wood '29 Jane Mckenzie '27 Adelaide Matzky '29 Maggie Burnham '26
Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Statesmen	Deana Fedulova '28 Lauren Campbell '28 Moira Padilla '29 Sabrina Starck '28	Cara Brickhouse '27 Reilly Roedel '27 Olivia Wilkins '28
University of South Florida	Bulls	Ghislaine Van Empel '27 Grace Jones '28 Kailey Warrior '27	Catherine Brennan '26 Melissa Janes '26 Madisen Hamai '26

Conditions — 03/07/2026 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 87% · Pressure 1020.8 hPa

Temperature

49°F

↑ 59°F ↓ 40°F

Feels like 45°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

5.8 kn

avg · max 7.7 kn

Gusts to 16.7 kn

From SSE (160°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover91% Sunshine3.3 hrs Humidity87% Pressure1020.8 hPa

What this breeze does at Navy — from fleet racing

Breeze: S about 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Navy in this breeze: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.11)

Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.11 means a rating gap counts about 10% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Navy by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (114 labelled fleet-race days at Navy).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

Navigate

Menu